Suspected Google Insider Leaks Gemini 3.0 Flash Release Date, Multiple Accounts Simultaneously Place Precise Bets on Narrow Window Period

BlockBeats News, November 28, according to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market "Will Gemini 3.0 Flash be released before_?" series of markets, the trading behavior of multiple traders has shown astonishing consistency: accurately pinpointing the product release date to a narrow 16-day window.

This prediction series includes three key deadlines, with the current market consensus being: the probability of the deadline on November 30, which is less than 3 days away, is only 1%; the likelihood of a release before December 15 is 9%; while the probability of a release before December 31 is as high as 91%. This trend reflects the market's confidence in Gemini 3.0 Flash's release but indicates that Google may need more time for final testing and adjustments.

Among the traders in this market, the holding structures of multiple accounts exhibit highly uniform characteristics, indicating a precise understanding of the internal timeline. Among them, user gladitya holds both the "No" shares for November 30 and December 15, as well as the "Yes" share for December 31, with high certainty, placing a total of $14,000 in heavy bets on the release date being precisely locked in between December 16 and December 31. The position currently has realized over 40% in gains. It is worth noting that this account's only previous historical trade was a successful bet on another Gemini version release, earning nearly $10,000.

Two other traders have holding structures that align closely with this: NCW, with no other trading history, heavily bets $17,810 on "No" for December 15 and "Yes" for December 31. ambuscade, in addition to holding over $50,000 in this market, had an average position of less than $50 in their past five historical trades. This pattern of multiple accounts using large funds, precisely ruling out early dates, and concentrating bets on specific later windows aligns well with the characteristics of insider information.