Analyst: Predicts Tariff War Far From Over, Market Uncertainty to Persist Long Term

BlockBeats News, April 18th, Greek.live analyst Adam stated that the market has cooled down significantly this week, with fewer messages released by Trump, leading to a rapid market cooldown. Currently, the short-term RV is only at 30%, and IV has also dropped significantly this week, falling below 40%. The medium to long-term RV is between 50% to 60%, with IV concentrated around 50%. Greek.live expects that the trade war and tariff war are far from over, and market uncertainty will persist for a long time, leading to long-term market volatility.

The delivery volume accounts for less than 1% of the total open interest, and the PCR has been maintained at a relatively high level recently, reflecting the market's significant concern about a downturn outweighing the expectations for an uptrend. The open interest for April and June options is around 25%, indicating a relatively stable market structure with a high likelihood of consolidation. However, now is the period of painful transition from a bull to a bear market, with investor sentiment relatively pessimistic. In this poor market condition of bull to bear reversal, the probability of a black swan event significantly increases, making buying some deep out-of-the-money put options a good choice.