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World Cup Upsets Abound, Is the "Dumb Money" in the Prediction Markets More Worth Watching Than the "Smart Money"?

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In addition to the joke of "Smart Money," classic loss cases may also have some counterintuitive reference value.

Original Title: "Upsets Galore at the World Cup, Watching the 'Dumb Money' in the Prediction Market Amused Me"

The World Cup, 20 days in.

The prediction market trading volume has been steadily rising, with huge gains and losses taking turns. Previously, we had reviewed the "big earn & big loss" cases after the start of the World Cup, as well as outlined how the smart money's strategies and tools were built.

Today, besides joking about the "big smart money," we want to talk about whether classic loss cases have any reverse reference value.

Spain vs. Cape Verde Draw: Goalkeeper Makes 7 Incredible Saves, a Whale Lost $1 Million While Trying to Earn $85,000

The 40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper, Vozinha, panting heavily, watched his opponents on the field, his body slightly stooped, ready to deflect the balls kicked towards him at any moment.

For this goalkeeper whose value was only 50,000 euros, many people did not have high hopes for him and Cape Verde, this island nation's team, before the match; after all, their opponents were the World Cup's top powerhouse—the Spain team. The value of just their star player, Amarl, was as high as 200 million euros, ranking first in the World Cup player value list, which is 4000 times Vozinha's value; the total value of the Spanish players was as high as 1.2 billion euros, making them one of the top favorites for the championship before this World Cup. The Spanish La Liga includes a series of powerhouses such as Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid, with numerous domestic stars.

But football is not just a game of comparing values; it is a sports competition that happens on the field.

For the Cape Verde national team players, being able to stand on the World Cup stage, enjoying the fun brought by football and the adrenaline rush brought by the competition, was already enough.

(Note: According to commentator Guan Zeyuan, as an Atlantic island nation, Cape Verde has a total land area of about 4000 square kilometers. They have football matches on each island to determine the winning team, and then finally select the players to participate in the World Cup, which is somewhat similar to regional competitions like "Village BA" and "Scottish Premier League" in the domestic leagues.)

In the match, the Spanish team had 27 shots throughout the game, with 7 shots on target, but in the end, all their attacks were successfully dealt with one by one by Vozinha cooperating with his teammates. As the referee blew the final whistle to end the match, the Spain vs. Cape Verde game ended with a "0-0" scoreline. Such an unexpected outcome left many prediction market players instantly penniless.

Before the match, @betoor619 placed a $1 million bet at a 92-cent rate on "Spain to beat Cape Verde," which many saw as a "prediction market financial bureau" in action. Many even thought this match would be a "one-sided slaughter, ending in a large-margin victory."

However, the Cape Verde team, especially goalkeeper Vozinha, did not accept this outcome. They collaborated rigorously, defended compactly, actively pressed, and executed their defense counterattacks exceptionally well.

In the end, @betoor619 did not profit as hoped with the "financial bureau," but instead lost his $1 million principal.

This match may have also marked the beginning of this World Cup's trend of frequent upsets, with strong teams being drawn by weaker ones. Many subsequent matches saw tournament favorites playing to a draw with unknown small nations or underdogs in the group stage, making a bet on a draw the best choice in the prediction market.

Recommended Reading: "Whether You Understand Football or Not, Is Betting on Draws the Best Strategy for This World Cup?"

Portugal-DRC Draw: 41-Year-Old Ronaldo's Glory Fades, Smart Money Loses Over $240,000 to Learn a Lesson

On June 18, in the World Cup group stage, Group K, the highly anticipated Portugal team faced the Democratic Republic of Congo team, making their World Cup debut.

According to FIFA data, as of June 10, 2026, the Portugal men's national team was ranked 7th, behind the Netherlands, with a relatively strong overall strength. Especially with Cristiano Ronaldo, who has "5 Champions League titles, 5 Ballon d'Ors, 6 World Cup appearances, and the all-time leading goal scorer," many fans were confident in Portugal's performance before the match. Many people expected Ronaldo to score in this game and become the "first player in history to score in six consecutive World Cups," surpassing Messi.

On the other hand, the DRC is ranked only 45th in the FIFA rankings. This participation marks the DRC national team's return to the World Cup stage after 52 years.

In terms of player values, the Portugal team's total value exceeds €1 billion, including 2 "billionaires" and 8 top-tier players worth over €40 million each. The DRC team's total value is about €150 million, only one-seventh of Portugal's. Before the match, the DRC team expressed their hope to "rewrite their humiliating history, at least reaching the World Cup knockout stage and advancing to the round of 32."

Back to the match, on the day of the competition, Cristiano Ronaldo was in the starting lineup for the Portuguese team, but in the end, he had 3 shots on goal with 0 shots on target; the Portuguese team had 7 shots in total with 1 shot on target, showing a clear lack of firepower in the attack.

Although the Portuguese team took the lead in less than 7 minutes with a lightning goal by 19-year-old João Neves, it was also during stoppage time in the first half when the Portuguese team was most prone to negligence and complacency, allowing the DR Congo team to equalize at the last minute.

Similar to Cape Verde, the DR Congo team's defensive counterattacks were also excellent, with tight man-marking in place; and the 3 center-backs with an average height of over 185 further restricted Ronaldo's performance, putting immense pressure on the Portuguese midfield and defense, ultimately unable to secure a win.

In the prediction market, a savvy bet with a pre-match win rate of 49% spent over $243,000 predicting "Portugal to beat DR Congo," entering at an average price of 76 cents, only to end up with a loss.

In today's knockout match between England and DR Congo, DR Congo briefly took the lead with a defensive counterattack strategy, but England eventually relied on Kane's "brace" to score 2 goals and narrowly defeated DR Congo, avoiding a shocking upset where a weaker team holds a stronger team to a draw or even beats them, with Kane scoring twice.

Saudi Arabia Draws with Cape Verde: Fool's Bet on Cape Verde Win, Ends up Losing $80,000

In World Cup match predictions, whenever you try to rely on the previous experience, the trend reverses.

In the previous group stage matches, Cape Verde defeated their opponents with goalkeeper Vozinha and a strict execution of their defensive counterattack strategy, later securing another draw against Uruguay.

Given this, the "smart money" in the prediction market boldly predicted Cape Verde to win against Saudi Arabia.

However, in the end, Cape Verde still relied on their extremely resilient defensive style and the team's unity in executing their strategy, ending the match in a "0-0" draw with Saudi Arabia.

According to the PPP prediction market tool monitoring, the world-renowned contrarian address @Zzzz87 once again made an incorrect prediction, with this address predicting a Cape Verde win against Saudi Arabia resulting in another $80,000 loss. Previously, this address had lost $620,000 since the start of the World Cup, with a win rate dropping to less than 40%, and usually, the larger the position, the lower the win rate.

Over the past week, @Zzzz87, having learned from painful experiences, started to change tactics, no longer insisting on upsets by weaker teams but instead betting on stronger teams to win directly. As expected, as the knockout stage unfolded, the instances of stronger teams being upset gradually decreased. @Zzzz87's "buy strong" strategy quickly paid off, with profit margins ranging from nearly 30% to close to 120%.

Therefore, despite experiencing a loss of around $255,000 within the past month, the profit scale has reached around $269,000 in the past week.

Currently, this address holds multiple prediction events for matches such as "Switzerland vs. Algeria," "Spain vs. Austria," "Portugal vs. Croatia," "Argentina vs. Cape Verde," with investment amounts ranging from thousands of dollars to $36,000. The outcomes will be revealed tomorrow.

Football is round, and anything is possible

After observing numerous cases, one wonders: will the past "fool's reversal" eventually transform into a lesson-learned "smart money," or will the "top-tier jinx" once again prove its effectiveness?

It's challenging to conclude, as some have deleted their accounts and run, refusing observation due to "survivorship bias," while others have hedged their bets with multiple accounts.

Whether playing the game or predicting its outcome, the only certainty is "uncertainty."

The World Cup results are not a competition of team valuations, nor a comparison of national strengths and development systems, and certainly not swayed by the will and financial power of external participants. Whether you follow the smart or the fool, what you truly need is to watch the game, adjust flexibly while enjoying it.