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The Market Gradually Shrugging Off "Peace Talk Volatility" | TradeXYZ Weekend Watch

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After-Hours Showdown Escalates, Pre-Market Vibe Turns Mellow

Last week, the Swiss four-party talks just "made good progress." However, the fragility of the ceasefire memorandum signed by the US and Iran far exceeded market expectations. Only 11 days after coming into effect, another round of hostilities broke out due to differing interpretations of the Strait of Hormuz clause. This weekend, both crude oil and the S&P 500 completed a full cycle of "escalation after market close, followed by a calming of tensions before market open."

US-Iran Tensions

The root of the two countries' differences lies in who controls the strait.

Last Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi stated that, according to the preliminary agreement, Iran has "exclusive rights" to manage traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and any attempt to bypass its authority "could trigger a series of recent strikes." This directly contradicts the US position: Washington believes the agreement never granted Iran control, and this international waterway must remain open and unrestricted. US Ambassador to the UN, Wells, issued a strong statement on Fox: the US will not tolerate further attacks on ships.

The conflict began when Iran attacked a ship trying to skirt the Iranian-designated route by hugging the Omani coast. Tehran wants all ships to take a specific route along its coast, and every ship deviating into Omani waters signifies Iran's diminishing "leverage." Subsequently, Iran consecutively attacked a container ship and a tanker carrying Qatari oil (Qatar being one of the mediators), while the US retaliated by targeting Iran's coastal communication facilities, drones, and missile sites. Iran then attacked Kuwait and Bahrain.

In the Swiss negotiations, the US and Iran had agreed to establish a "hotline" between the US military and the Revolutionary Guards to coordinate strait passage scheduling. However, as of last Saturday, this hotline had not yet become operational, and Iran has resumed demanding ships to "coordinate in advance" for passage. Meanwhile, the negotiations have also stalled. According to Iran's state TV, due to recent attacks and "unfulfilled conditions," Iran was absent from the scheduled technical talks last Sunday.

A turning point came late Sunday night, just before futures markets opened. Axios reported that the US and Iran have agreed to cease mutual attacks and plan to meet in Doha on Tuesday to specifically address the strait dispute.

Crude Oil / S&P 500

At 4:30 am on Saturday, the Iranian Nour News Agency reported three explosions in the city of Sirik adjacent to the strait (source of the news unknown). This signal of "reignited conflict" sent oil prices on an upward trend, spiking to a high of $72.57.

At 7:14 am on Sunday, Trump added fuel to the fire: "They might never learn their lesson...Perhaps one day we will no longer be able to remain rational and be forced to resort to force to accomplish the mission...If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to exist." Oil prices remained tense and volatile at the highs.

Sunday 8:42, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard claimed to have carried out airstrikes on 8 U.S. targets and threatened possible "stronger measures" against ships in the strait, while warning that any violations of the ceasefire would result in "all processes coming to a complete halt." Oil prices briefly surged before retreating.

Monday 4:22 am, Axios revealed that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to halt airstrikes and would meet later this week. In response, oil prices took a nosedive, dropping from $72 to $69.3, a nearly 4% decline from the weekend highs.

At the same time, the S&P 500 index futures on TradeXYZ surged in a straight line from 7,324 to a high of 7,391. This was a classic example of "risk-on sentiment returning"—a moment of geopolitical tension easing, with funds flowing from oil to stocks.

U.S. Stock Market

Individual stocks followed a pattern of broad-based recovery this weekend: starting with a slight dip following the broader market, then recovering along with the opening of stock index futures, led by AI computing power and individual catalyst-driven stocks.

Of particular note was CBRS (Cerebras, +3.30%). The catalyst came from a snippet in OpenAI's blog announcing GPT-5.6: GPT-5.6 is set to launch on the Cerebras platform in July, with an inference speed of up to 750 tokens per second, limited to select clients. The combination of "cutting-edge model × ultra-fast inference × exclusive platform" has led the market to view Cerebras as a direct beneficiary of this generation's inference arms race.

Another standout was BB (BlackBerry, +2.56%). Traders unearthed clues from a supply chain perspective: one discovered two as-yet-unannounced new BB contracts—the first being BB × Astemo (formerly Hitachi Astemo), providing immediate and long-term revenue licensing for its QNX; the second involving MDA Space / Mitsubishi Electric collaboration. Though BB was not explicitly named, both companies' underlying operating systems use QNX, indirectly benefiting (incidentally, Mitsubishi holds about 22 million BB shares). These implicit orders for "automotive-grade + aerospace-grade OS penetration" present a rare incremental narrative for BB, a long-standing asset.

In addition, NBIS (+3.04%) and BE (+3.66%) strengthened simultaneously. Last Friday, NBIS and BE dropped by 6.36% and 18.49%, respectively. The weekend increases in these two stocks can be seen as a certain extent of "bottom reversal."

The aerospace sector also performed well over the weekend, with SPCX and RKLB both rising 3%.