NewsFlash Articles Data Fundraising Skill&API

BTC Trades Sideways at $80,000: Rare Confluence in Long and Short Signals, Will There Be a Breakout or Double Dip?

ODAILY星球日报

Read this article in 12 Minutes

Either break above $85,000 or drop back to $60,000.

Original Title: "BTC Trading Sideways at $80,000: Will the Bulls Break Through or Will the Bears Strengthen?"
Original Author: jk, Odaily Planet Daily

Since hitting a historical high of $126,198 in October 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a seven-month-long period of gradual decline and sideways movement. As we enter May 2026, BTC has formed a highly condensed long-short battle zone near the $80,000 mark. Accumulation signals from the bulls and liquidation pressure from the bears are simultaneously appearing with rare intensity at the same price level.

At the time of writing, the current BTC price is around $80,832, and the market is at a critical juncture: Will there be a breakthrough, or will there be a secondary pullback?

Bullish Confidence: On-chain data overwhelmingly points to accumulation at the bottom

The evidence supporting the bulls is mainly focused on supply-side contraction and institutional demand.

On the supply side, BTC reserves on exchanges have dropped to 2.21 million coins, the lowest level in seven years since December 2017. Long-term holders account for 78.3% of the total supply, with whale wallets accumulating a net of around 270,000 BTC in April. The amount of chips available in the market for immediate sale has compressed to a historic low. If additional demand continues to enter the market, the price sensitivity to inflows of funds may further increase.

In terms of demand and institutional data, April saw a net inflow of $2.44 billion into the US spot BTC ETF, marking the strongest month since October 2025, with BlackRock's IQBIT accounting for approximately 70% ($1.71 billion).

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 818,334 BTC with an average cost of $75,537, enjoying a paper gain of over 7%. On May 10, Saylor posted about "returning to work," which the market interpreted as a signal to continue accumulating. JPMorgan estimates that Strategy's total BTC purchases this year could reach $30 billion.

Bitcoin ETF Inflow Data, Source: The Block

The valuation metrics are also unusually low. The MVRV Z-Score is only 0.91, historically recognized as a strategic accumulation window; the RHODL Ratio is 4.5, the third highest in Bitcoin's history. This is the third time in history, with the previous two occurrences in 2015 and 2020, both marking the cycle bottoms.

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has re-entered the vicinity of the $78,200 Realized Cap and the short-term holder cost basis near $79,100. These two levels are crucial for the market structure. If the price continues to hold above them, it indicates that recent buyers are back in a profit position, transitioning the market from loss-driven selling pressure to a restoration of hodler confidence.

On a macro level, the 30-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the Dollar Index (DXY) touched -0.90 in late April, the most extreme negative correlation level since September 2022. If the dollar continues to weaken, it will provide almost mechanical price support for BTC.

Pressure from the Shorts: Seven Rejections, Miner Selloffs, Derivatives Anomalies

However, equally strong as the accumulation signal is the resistance coming from another direction.

Regarding sell-offs, Glassnode data shows that the 14-day on-chain realized loss remains at a daily $4.79 billion, 140% of the benchmark $2 billion. Historical precedent indicates that this number must compress below the benchmark before the start of a bull market.

Currently, about 43% of the network's Bitcoin is at an unrealized loss, with 245,000 fewer wallet addresses holding BTC in the last 5 days, the fastest depletion rate in almost two years. The cost basis for new whale wallets (holding for less than 155 days) is around $80,300; BTC needs to sustain above this level for these chips to turn profitable, otherwise facing potential sell-off pressure at any time.

The derivatives market structure also signals on this side: on April 27, the perpetual contract funding rate 30-day average was -5%, while the historical norm is +8%, and this data has just turned positive. On Binance, the BTC long/short ratio is only 36.7% long/63.3% short, the most crowded short position among current mainstream assets.

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen clearly stated that this abnormal funding rate indicates institutions are hedging ETF longs through shorting futures, forming a systemic suppression that may be a signal to further squeeze short-term longs. Glassnode's statistics show that nearly $2 billion in short Gamma option positions are concentrated around the $82,000 strike price, and market makers' hedging behavior will amplify volatility around this level.

Funding Rate 30-Day Average Just Turned Positive, Source: Coinglass

On the selling pressure front, publicly traded mining firms in the first quarter of 2026 have sold over 32,000 BTC, exceeding the total for the entire year of 2025. Bitdeer completely liquidated its reserve of 1,132.9 BTC in February, Cango sold 4,451 BTC on February 9th (approximately $305 million), and Core Scientific is also continuously liquidating its reserves.

On-chain data shows that since April 7th, around 3,400 BTC have flowed out of miner reserves as mining firms take advantage of this rebound. If miner sell pressure continues and ETF inflows fail to offset it sustainably, price stability around $80,000 will face a test.

Institutional Outlook: Analyst Views

The bullish and bearish divide is also reflected in Wall Street's year-end price targets, with a level of dispersion rarely seen in this cycle.

Tom Lee gave the most optimistic assessment at the Miami Consensus conference on May 7th: "If Bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is clearly over. You never have been in a bear market within three consecutive positive return months." His year-end target range is $150,000–$250,000.

Tom Lee at the recent Consensus conference. Source: Coindesk

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reiterated the $150,000 target on May 5th and stated, "The current logic for the bear market is the weakest in Bitcoin's history, and the best times for cryptocurrencies are still ahead." JPMorgan is optimistic about the 2026 crypto market, believing it will be more institutionally driven rather than retail-driven, and has lowered the BTC production cost soft floor from $90,000 to $77,000.

On the other hand, Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick downgraded his year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000 in February this year and warned of an "ultimate capitulation phase," suggesting BTC could slide to $50,000 before establishing a lasting bottom.

In March, Citigroup lowered its target from $143,000 to $112,000, believing that BTC is more likely to consolidate in the short term, awaiting legislative progress such as the "CLARITY Act." SkyBridge's Anthony Scaramucci, on the other hand, explicitly stated that a significant recovery for BTC may have to wait until the fourth quarter of 2026.

Key Judgment Criteria

Among all observed indicators, the two most decisive ones currently are:

First, whether the 200-day EMA can hold. BTC has just reclaimed this moving average. If the price falls back below it and closes on a weekly basis, this reclaim will be classified as a false breakout. The short-term holder’s cost line at $79,100 and the real market value at $78,200 will serve as two bullish supports. Once $74,300 is breached, the extreme scenario of $50,000–$60,000 warned by Standard Chartered Bank will come back into view.

Second, whether it can break through the Glassnode Active HODLer Realized Price at $85,200. This is the next significant on-chain resistance level provided in Glassnode's 18th weekly report. If the weekly close is above this level, the trend reversal signal will be confirmed.

The combination of these indicators will provide answers in the next two to three weeks.