Original Title: "Backpack Today's TGE, Will the Bear Market Opening Act Play Out?"

Original Author: Mach, Foresight News

On March 23, Solana ecosystem's well-known wallet and centralized exchange platform Backpack will launch the BP token TGE.

According to information previously released by Backpack's official team, the total token supply is set at 1 billion, with the contract address being: BPxxfRCXkUVhig4HS1Lh7kZqV6SPJhzfEk4x6fVBjPCy.

25% of the tokens will unlock at TGE (Token holders 24%; Mad Lads 1%). 37.5% of the tokens will unlock before the IPO. Unlocking will be based on key milestones. All tokens will be allocated to users who reach each supply increment milestone, based on measurable regulatory progress, product expansion, and broader market access.

37.5% will unlock post-listing. As corporate treasury funds, they will be fully locked until 1 year post IPO. The tokens are held as strategic digital asset reserves for long-term value creation. All team members and investors have exposure to token through the corporate treasury.

During the TGE phase, immediately unlock 25%, which is 2.5 billion tokens, all earmarked for community users, with no team or investor share participating in the initial circulation.

Backpack founder Armani Ferrante outlined the guiding principles of the project's tokenomics design. The core aim is to prevent insiders from dumping on retail, with no founder, executive, employee, or VC able to profit from the token until the project is listed in the United States.

Furthermore, tokens in circulation will be specifically allocated to users for business growth incentives when reaching key milestones such as entering new regions (e.g., EU, Japan, US) or launching new products (e.g., predictions, stocks, bank cards, etc.).

Armani Ferrante emphasized that no founder, executive, team member, or VC received a direct token distribution. The entire team allocation share is held in the company treasury and will be locked for at least one year post-listing. Team members hold company equity, with the company holding most of the token supply, and the team can only benefit after a company listing or equity exit event.

Users must log in to the Backpack website or mobile app to complete the TGE verification process. The system will automatically calculate and distribute shares based on the snapshot's points relative percentage. Mad Lads NFT holders only need to connect their corresponding wallet to automatically receive their allocation without any additional steps. After users complete the process, they can see the "TGE Verified" badge in the Points-Achievements section.

Currently, users are unable to inquire about the exact airdrop specifics. Backpack stated that the specific allocation and points-to-token conversion rate will only be disclosed, displayed, and claimable after the TGE commences.

Backpack's announced points accumulation mechanism includes metrics such as trading volume, asset holding duration, invitations, and product usage depth. In addition, Backpack has introduced a staking-to-equity conversion mechanism where users can stake BP for at least one year and convert it into company equity at a fixed ratio.

A total of 20% of Backpack's company shares will be distributed to eligible stakers, with staking duration, amount, and platform product usage serving as weighted factors to determine IPO priority allocation rights.

What's the Value Proposition?

Prior to this airdrop, Backpack's anti-whale measures have been continuously enhanced, requiring all accounts participating in the points activities to undergo KYC (identity verification). In the "Epilogue" phase at the beginning of 2026, Backpack conducted an audit where it identified and recovered over 50 million so-called "fake points" through data analysis.

Backpack requested all airdrop qualifiers to perform a second manual confirmation by the deadline of March 15, 2026. Many bot accounts that had been scoring for an extended period may have entered an "offline" or "management vacuum" state. This requirement of manual clicks within a specific window, or even revalidation, serves as a final measure to filter out automated accounts engaged in "score and run" behavior. User X self-ironically remarked about Metabape, "Opened an account with a score of 270,000, only to find out: 1000 coins."

Backpack's "Milestone Unlock + Equity Conversion" model is an industry first. Additionally, Backpack has obtained licenses from multiple countries including the UAE, UK, and Europe, with a clear path to IPO. Once the company achieves business milestones, Pre-IPO unlocks will create a positive feedback loop. Of course, risks also exist: failure to meet milestones may result in temporarily restricted liquidity, but this was also the design intent — to ensure token release is tied to actual value creation.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability of the FDV exceeding $100 million on its second day of trading is 98%, corresponding to a price of $0.1 per token. The probability of exceeding $200 million is 87%, with a price of $0.2 per token, while the probability of exceeding $300 million drops significantly to 44%, and only 11% for exceeding $500 million.

Therefore, the current market participants on Polymarket are predicting a price range of approximately $0.1 to $0.2 per token.

It is worth noting that the $100 million to $200 million FDV range is also the publicly estimated valuation range of Backpack's previous funding round.

In February 2024, Backpack raised $17 million in a strategic Series A round at a $120 million valuation, with Placeholder leading the round and participation from Hashed, Robot Ventures, Amber Group, Wintermute, Jump Crypto, Delphi Digital, among others. In September 2022, Backpack previously raised $20 million with FTX Ventures and Jump Crypto leading the round.

In February 2026, according to Axios, sources familiar with the matter stated that Backpack Exchange is in negotiations for a new funding round, aiming to raise $50 million at a pre-money valuation of $1 billion. The final outcome is still pending.

According to official data, Backpack currently has open positions totaling $137 million, with assets under management having a nominal total value of around $350 million and a total nominal lending value of $330 million. Due to airdrop expectations, its total trading volume has reached $4.33 trillion.

Currently, the crypto market is in a deep bear phase, with Bitcoin fluctuating around $70,000 and some crypto projects choosing to shut down due to significant pressure. Backpack has been urged by the community to launch its token multiple times. However, due to reasons such as a hack, theft, and system malfunctions leading to compensation, the team ultimately chose to conduct the Token Generation Event (TGE) at the worst market conditions.

So, after the Backpack TGE, will the market's new buyers choose to support it or abandon it completely? Today will reveal the answer.

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