Original Title: Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions.

Original Author: Benjamin Wallace, The New York Times

Translation: Luffy, Foresight News

BlockBeats Note: With the rise and popularity of prediction markets, a new group of professional players has emerged: they shuttle between probability and odds, making a living by predicting the future. In the hands of these professional traders, everything from geopolitical shifts to politicians' speech nuances is transformed into profits pulsating in their accounts.

The New York Times recently interviewed several full-time traders who make a living from prediction markets, revealing how they transform massive amounts of information into real wealth. The emergence of this profession marks that we are entering a new era of "cognition as currency," and a group of sharp-minded young people have taken the lead in attempting to dissect every fragment of the future with data and logic. The following is the original content:

26-year-old Joel Holsinger quit his job as a corporate registered accountant and devoted himself full-time to prediction market trading just two months ago, steadily progressing towards his first $100,000 profit target in life. It was the Tuesday before Thanksgiving last year, nearing noon, when President Trump was about to hold his annual turkey pardoning ceremony.

At that time, Joel Holsinger wagered $700 on whether Trump would say two specific words. Both Kalshi and Polymarket, two leading prediction market platforms, launched "mention markets" betting products, allowing users to bet on whether the president would say dozens of words and phrases, including "hottest," "big beautiful bill," "radical left/far left," and "rigged election/stolen election."

He bought 500 "stuffing" No contracts at a price of 86 cents each, and bought 500 "cheaper" No contracts at 70 cents each. These betting choices were almost all made by him based on the frequency of the vocabulary in Trump's past speech transcripts that he had researched.

Joel Holsinger said that Trump was almost certain to talk about topics related to affordable prices, but he usually used "lower" instead of "cheaper"; since August of last year, Trump had not used the word "cheaper" again, and he had never mentioned "stuffing" in his previous turkey pardon speeches.

Nevertheless, Joel Holsinger remains extremely cautious when it comes to the wager amount. "The sample size is only four times," referring to the four Thanksgiving speeches during Trump's first term, "I'm not going to do anything wild."

On the Kalshi platform favored by Joel Holsinger, the odds of Trump not saying "stuffing" have dropped to 81 cents, with the market's expectation of him saying the word continuing to rise.

"Does someone have an exclusive advantage on this 'stuffing' bet?" Joel Holsinger asked into his earpiece. He was dressed in sweatpants and a T-shirt, sitting cross-legged in an office chair in a four-story walk-up in South Williamsburg, Brooklyn, broadcasting live to over 1,000 viewers, listening to commentary and analysis from the blogger known as PredictionMarketTrader. He and his fiancée had recently moved here from Los Angeles, with Home Depot boxes still piled up in the corner of the room.

The highlight he was eagerly anticipating was which of the two turkeys would receive this ceremonial pardon, Gobble or Waddle? Joel Holsinger had wagered $2,500 on Gobble.

He had initially not planned to bet, feeling lost on the matter and unable to find any clues that could give him a betting edge. He had even told his audience, "I just don't see any reason why Waddle would go up," "There are many supporters of Gobble, but I may just be stuck in an information bubble."

However, just 30 minutes ago, his friend came across a new video from the Associated Press, which seemed to confirm that Gobble was the winner: in a White House press briefing, off-camera voices said that although "both turkeys will receive pardons," Gobble "will be the national Thanksgiving turkey."

This subtle wording difference would be unnoticed by the average person but was invaluable information for a trader. Settlement criteria for top-tier platform betting projects often hide in the details, focusing on the minutiae of language. Other traders had not seemed to notice this video yet, and the certain contract for betting on Gobble's victory was still selling for around 82 cents. Joel Holsinger immediately bought 2,475 contracts; if he won, he would make around $425.

In the live broadcast of the Rose Garden, a turkey appeared on the screen, its wattle wobbling comically. "Is that the Gobble on stage?" Joel Holsinger asked loudly, facilitating a discussion among the live audience, "Can someone find a photo to compare?"

Trump's speech was all over the place, mentioning plenty of trader-bait words like "affordable," "Walmart," and "egg."

"Now, let's give a pardon to Gobble. By the way, Waddle is absent, but that's okay, let's just pretend it's here..." Trump said.

Joel Holsinger's eyes widened in an instant. He had bet on Gobble to win big, bet that Trump wouldn't say "stuffing" and "cheaper," which would have earned him an extra $250, as the president indeed did not mention those two words.

However, as the 55-minute livestream came to an end, Joel Holsinger was filled with regret, kicking himself for not doubling down on his bet.

"I'm too deep into the web, I don't even recognize my own neighborhood. I probably spend 16 hours a day on the computer. I should get out more," Holsinger said.

"At least we had the right prediction, entered early enough. But in the end, we entered too early, should have doubled down. Anyway, folks, the week started out well. From Sunday to now, we've already made $1300."

Will this be the signature career of the 2020s?

Prior to 2020, the only platform where one could make a living predicting current events was PredictIt in New Zealand, which capped individual bets at $850 and limited the number of traders in a single market. But with the rise of the two major prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket, in the U.S., all that changed.

Today, thousands of real-time betting propositions are available on the platforms 24/7, allowing anyone to pick a side and bet: Will Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei step down by the end of July? Will the U.S. confirm the existence of aliens?

Prediction markets have become ingrained in mainstream culture. CNN has partnered with Kalshi, and Google Finance has integrated real-time data from Kalshi and Polymarket. During this month's CBS Golden Globe Awards broadcast, real-time betting odds from Polymarket were displayed before the awards, with the company's founder and CEO Shayne Coplan even attending the ceremony.

This industry has also seen a political tailwind. In 2024, Polymarket traders wagered over $3.6 billion on the outcome of the election between Trump and Harris. As the election voting concluded, the prediction markets favored Trump, while the polling averages showed Harris with a slight lead. Trump's second administration was friendly towards this industry, with Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., serving as an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket and being an investor in Polymarket. In November of last year, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Polymarket to operate legally in the U.S. Other investment and betting platforms like Robinhood and FanDuel have also joined the prediction market trend.

Relying on prediction markets for a living may become one of the iconic professions of this era, much like Wall Street traders in the '80s, internet entrepreneurs in the '90s, and social media influencers in the 2010s. The various social and cultural backgrounds that have nurtured this profession have each sparked numerous in-depth discussions in the past: an increasing number of young men addicted to screens and online communities; traditional career paths crumbling, giving rise to highly speculative investments with a "bet it all to win big" mentality; a post-trust, post-expertise era where people are more willing to believe in mathematical probability and collective wisdom; and a pervasive "casino-like" quality in all things. The emergence of full-time prediction market traders may be the convergence point of all these trends.

An industry-successful prediction market trader that goes by the pseudonym Domer, who requests not to disclose his real name, candidly stated that TV commentators can speak recklessly without consequences, while prediction markets are "commentary analysis backed by real money," as the trading outcomes directly involve gains and losses. Like Domer, many traders prefer to operate anonymously to avoid attention from the IRS or to prevent disgruntled losing opponents from seeking revenge. As Domer puts it, "If I made $2.5 million last year, that means someone lost $2.5 million."

"We are figuring out better ways to predict what might happen in the future, and that's crucial," Domer continued.

Potential insider trading opportunities clearly hold a significant allure for prediction market traders. Last December, an anonymous Polymarket user made over $1 million in 24 hours, in part because they placed an extremely contrarian bet that singer D4vd would become the most searched person on Google last year. This month, a mysterious account accurately predicted the timing of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's ousting, earning over $400,000. Domer believes that the player who correctly bet on the Nicolás Maduro event has an 85% to 90% probability of being an insider, while the player who correctly bet on the Google search event has an exceptionally high 98% to 99% probability of being an insider. Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment.

Most users on the two major mainstream platforms are losing money, while losing money on sports betting has become a new choice for a group of young men. Many of them are unemployed, burdened with student loans or credit card debt, yet they make futile bets on sports events through convenient, gamified platforms. At the age of 18, one can place bets on prediction markets, while most U.S. states' sports betting platforms require users to be 21 years old. Furthermore, due to the federal government's approval of Polymarket and Kalshi, gamblers can even place bets on events through these two platforms in states where sports betting is prohibited.

"We are nurturing a generation like this: they will abandon the principles of financial prudence, a personal bankruptcy wave is bound to come, and the mental health crisis will be even more severe than it is now," commented the CEO of a private lending platform recently. A study published last month found a link between convenient sports betting channels and a significant decline in individuals' credit scores, increased bankruptcy rates, rising debt levels, and increased loan delinquency rates.

Those who call themselves "trading masters," mostly quick-thinking males, dare to take risks, possess quantitative analysis skills, and have above-average information processing abilities. Today, the trading volume and liquidity of prediction markets are substantial enough that top traders like Domer can earn millions of dollars a year as long as they can find inefficiencies in the prediction market that give them an advantage. Full-time traders say, the current number of full-time professionals in the industry is between "50 and several hundred." An analysis shows that fewer than 0.04% of accounts on Polymarket have taken away 70% of the profits.

Betting projects with high trading volumes and significant profit potential often attract the same group of trading masters in droves. Recent examples include: Will Zelensky wear a suit before July last year? The settlement process of this bet was very tricky because the clothes Zelensky wore at the NATO summit in June seemed like a suit but were not the standard suit style. Who would win the Romanian presidential election? In this bet, many trading masters bet on the right-wing candidate, who eventually lost, causing this group of experts to suffer losses, proving that their collective judgment is not reliable.

Ukrainian President Zelensky arrives at the official dinner in The Hague before the NATO Summit

"This is the most miserable loss of my life," said a trading master using the pseudonym Iabvek. The trader, based in Arizona, lost $350,000 in the Romanian election bet. He requested not to disclose his real name, one reason being he is concerned about being extorted. However, he also revealed that since November 2024, he has earned $2.5 million. His trading career began with a $20 bet in high school, when he used his mother's account to bet on Liz Cheney's victory in the 2016 Wyoming House election because he was underage.

Finding a Niche Market

Every trading ace has their own winning formula. Many of them could have easily conquered Wall Street but found market prediction more alluring. Some delve deep into legislative processes, some specialize in climate models, and others read niche industry newsletters. Iabvek notes that, despite the industry's small number of professional traders, a simple statistical model can still be profitable in the market.

Within exclusive Discord communities, many trading aces exchange information, such as insider tips on 'Steady Bets.' This is their term for low-risk, low-return bets, which, while not as guaranteed as U.S. treasury bonds, are seen as 'surefire bets' in the prediction market. When all 12 tracks of Taylor Swift's new album made it to the charts last year, many trading aces made money on this bet. "All the aces I know said this was the safest bet of the year," said 34-year-old Long Island trader Jonathan Zubkoff.

Jonathan Zubkoff's trading career started with a $100 bet, which he turned into $1.03 million by 2025. He once called a congressional office posing as a voter to inquire whether a certain legislator would attend a particular vote. During the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election, Iabvek personally went to California, knocked on 'thousands of doors' for field research, and concluded that the polls underestimated Governor Gavin Newsom's support. When Elon Musk hosted Saturday Night Live in 2021, a betting pool was opened on whether he would mention 'DOGE.' According to two trading aces, there were traders stationed outside Rockefeller Center, getting intel from the audience watching the rehearsal.

Some trading aces rely on their exceptional analytical skills to prevail. In January last year, trader Caleb Davies began betting against the tide, wagering that Bad Bunny would surpass the frontrunner Taylor Swift to become Spotify's most-streamed artist of the year. Caleb Davies, who currently works full time in information technology, noticed that Bad Bunny released an album in October 2023 but failed to surpass Taylor Swift for the top spot. In contrast, Bad Bunny released a new album in January last year, allowing more time to accumulate streams. As he predicted, on December 3rd, Spotify confirmed Bad Bunny's title, and Caleb Davies made over $20,000.

Bad Bunny performed in Puerto Rico last summer

Some people specialize in certain areas. Jonathan Zubkoff, in addition to betting on political and weather events, also built what he calls his "Rotten Tomatoes Bloomberg Terminal" — a custom data dashboard that integrates entertainment news sources and other relevant information. With this tool, he consistently guessed the weekly Rotten Tomatoes scores of movies. He said that even if someone were to replicate this dashboard, "I would bet that I process the information faster than others."

For trading wizards, last year was a bountiful year, and this year's prospects are even more promising. The various variables introduced by Trump mean the market is filled with uncertainty, and also with more topics to bet on. There is a group of political fanatics who, like Taylor Swift's fans, will bet on their idol no matter what. The attention to prediction markets has also exploded, with last month's active traders on Polymarket reaching 491,000, a historical high according to blockchain media outlet The Block. A large influx of novice funds has entered the market, including both gamblers from other fields like sports betting and ordinary people who enjoy betting.

Profitability Beyond the Web

From January 2022 to the present, Domer has earned $2.6 million just on the Polymarket platform. Twenty years ago, fresh out of college, he made a living as a full-time online poker player, but was frustrated by the illogical ups and downs of the game. "If you play the optimal strategy for 40 hours straight and end up losing money, you start to question life." You never know if your opponent is bluffing, so you can't analyze why you failed.

Once, while waiting for a poker game to finish, bored, he started thinking about what else he could bet on and stumbled upon the Irish platform Intrade, where you could bet on Oscar award winners. He thought movie critic Roger Ebert had good judgment, and Roger Ebert had said that in 2006, "Crash" should and would beat "Brokeback Mountain" to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Domer bet $10 on "Crash" to win, and ended up making $80. "This opened up a whole new world to me: I didn't know you could bet like this."

In 2008, Senator John McCain planned to announce his vice presidential running mate in Dayton, Ohio, Domer and a friend tracked all flights to nearby airports. When they saw a flight coming from Alaska, they immediately placed a large bet that Sarah Palin would be the pick, and raked in the cash. Around that time, Domer gave up poker and fully immersed himself in prediction market trading, seeing it as less stressful work that relied more on logic.

Today, Domer has over 1000 unsettled bets at any given time, involving risk capital of over $2 million. He once wagered nearly $260,000 that Pope Leo would not be named Time's Person of the Year, which turned out to be his most profitable bet of 2025.

In a park near downtown Greenville, South Carolina, there is a trader named Domer

As the market continues to grow and competition intensifies, trading has become more time-consuming. Domer's trading desk is equipped with four monitors and a TV, and he often orders Uber Eats. During the Israeli election, his schedule was completely synced with Israel's time zone.

In 2017, Domer met his current wife, who at the time could not have imagined the kind of life she would lead with him. The mainstream betting platforms back then were Betfair and PredictIt, with fewer events to bet on, less competition, and smaller amounts of money involved. Kalshi and Polymarket hadn't even been established yet. "Just think, marrying someone like me, whose phone is constantly buzzing with notifications, all sorts of distractions. We were just sitting down to dinner, and I might suddenly say, 'I need to go upstairs, Eric Adams just tweeted.'" The Eric Adams he mentioned is the former mayor of New York City.

He went on to say that the chaotic 2024 election year was a mess. "I told her, 'Just wait until July, we'll go to Ireland and Basel, we'll have a great time,'" with Basel being a city in Switzerland, "a place I've always wanted to visit."

But at the end of June last year, U.S. President Joseph R. Biden Jr. performed poorly in a debate, triggering what Domer called "the biggest political betting event in history": Would Biden drop out? "I went heavy on this. Ironically, in the weeks leading up to Biden's withdrawal, Domer was overseas, 'getting off the grid, touching grass,' not getting caught up in the 'Will Biden drop out' betting frenzy, but holding firm to most of his positions, ultimately making a net profit of over $1 million.

The mastermind who correctly predicted the Turkey Pardon event, Joel Holsinger, sees Domer as his role model, nurturing the same dream in his heart. This month, Joel Holsinger's total profit exceeded $144,000, and he has started contemplating the next target, perhaps $500,000.

He wanted to take on more risk in the trade: "My win rate shouldn't be this high, which means I've missed out on many opportunities to act."

Relying on citrus-flavored Zyn nicotine pouches and Celsius energy drinks to stay alert, Joel Holsinger is fully seizing the moment. "My only thought right now is: Give it my all, take the plunge."

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