On January 3, local time in Venezuela, in a predawn operation, the U.S. military simultaneously entered from the air and the ground, seized several key military facilities, and extradited President Nicolás Maduro to the United States.

Precision airstrikes, armed ground forces control, the abduction of a head of state... According to the universally recognized definition of international law, this constitutes a military invasion of a sovereign nation.

Meanwhile, on the other side, in the world's most hotly traded prediction market Polymarket, a group of traders has already begun celebrating their victory in advance due to this attack.

They had bet on the U.S. military invading Venezuela before the incident, and the smoke and gunfire reported in the news seemed to be a premature celebration of their high-odds windfall.

At that moment, no one would have thought that they had already become a loser at the moment of participating in the trade.

A News Story Covered Globally, Unseen on Polymarket

The market "U.S. invades Venezuela before January 31, 2026" had a straightforward definition of invasion before the attack: "U.S. military operation with the aim of establishing control."

After the attack, the probability of this market surged from 2% to 80%. This probability-based trading model made traders who bet before the attack welcome a massive windfall.

Just as mainstream media around the world were reporting "U.S. attacks Venezuela," multiple bets against it suddenly appeared on the market, asserting "The U.S. did not invade Venezuela." This caused the probability to drop to a mere 7%.

Even as Trump unabashedly declared "run Venezuela" after the attack, as of the writing of this article, this market has not yet settled, and the probability has fallen to 4%.

This globally shaking military invasion seemed to have never occurred on Polymarket.

"Tailored" Rule Update: Using Wordplay to Deny an Invasion

If one were to look for evidence of the invasion on Polymarket, there is some: hours after the attack, the platform's officials issued a rule update:

This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will "run" Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.

In simple terms: US military entry and bombing do not count as invasion. Trump said invasion, occupation, operation do not count as invasion. Arresting the president also does not count as invasion.

But still, the rule remains: "Military actions aimed at establishing control constitute invasion."

Following the job requirements written in the ID card has never been so rigorous, and traders who previously bet on the outcome did not have to consider these currently nonexistent hidden clauses when analyzing the military situation.

Meanwhile, traders who bet during the period of skyrocketing "no" odds (mostly whales) relied on tailor-made rule updates to once again achieve substantial profits.

A similar plot occurred in another market: "The US and Venezuela will have a military conflict by 2025." On December 26, 2025, Trump publicly stated in an interview that the US had destroyed a key facility within Venezuela.

Several mainstream media subsequently reported on the incident, with CNN pointing out that the action was "planned and executed by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)."

Shortly after the event, the platform issued a rule clarification stating that "actions carried out by non-military intelligence agencies do not meet the criteria."

Coincidentally, the CIA happens to fall under the category of a non-military intelligence agency.

In a situation where the US government had never formally clarified the attribution of the action, Polymarket, based on the "anonymous sources" in the CNN report, accurately excluded a military strike from the settlement scope.

Why Change the Rules? Uncovering the Trump Family's PredictIt Market Connection

As losing traders gathered to protest on the forums, a more fundamental question emerged: Why did Polymarket risk destroying its reputation and modify the rules in plain sight?

The clues point to those unusual names at the top of the platform.

Despite wearing the cloak of decentralization, Polymarket is a privately held company that is indeed regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The game-changing investment took place last August:

Donald Trump Jr.—the eldest son of the current US president, saw his private investment firm officially invest in Polymarket, and he himself then joined the company's "Advisory Board."

The timeline's coincidences are intriguing: after Trump Jr.'s investment, Polymarket, which had long operated in regulatory gray areas, swiftly obtained operating approval from the CFTC, thereby becoming legalized in the US.

Meanwhile, the CFTC's five top commissioners are all directly appointed by the president.

“This is just a normal business investment.” Some comments try to downplay the connection, “The Trump administration has always supported cryptocurrency innovation.”

The next step is to verify if Trump's inner circle is taking advantage of information asymmetry to profit from Polymarket.

From On-Chain Data to the White House Inner Circle: When "Coincidences" Become Too Many

Let's shift our focus back to three hours before the Capitol breach.

In another prediction market on whether “Maduro will step down by January 31, 2026,” a previously empty wallet address suddenly injected $30,000, betting “yes” all in. As Maduro boarded the plane, this $30,000 turned into over $400,000 within a few hours.

The account's behavior pattern is highly suspicious: new registration, single deposit, betting on only one market at one time, and immediate withdrawal after profiting. This is outright treating the prediction market as a personal ATM.

Who is this "insider"?

On-chain analysis blogger @Andrey_10gwei discovered through comparing exchange on-chain deposit and withdrawal amounts that the insider account's source of funds can be traced back to an account with the domain "stevencharles.sol."

Steven Charles?

Upon visiting the WLFI core team website, personally orchestrated by little Trump, the second person from the left on the second row is one of the company's co-founders, also a New York real estate developer who provided campaign funding to Trump and has had a close relationship with him for nearly 40 years.

(cr: https://x.com/Andrey_10gwei/status/2007904168791454011?s=20)

His full name? Steven Charles Witkoff. Perfect match to the on-chain domain "stevencharles."

A mysterious account turning $30,000 into $400,000 in 3 hours, an on-chain fund source named "stevencharles," a business tycoon closely linked to the president's family and directly able to influence Polymarket.

The concatenation of three events with almost zero probability can no longer be explained by mere coincidence.

Epilogue

Marketed as a decentralized fair trading platform, Polymarket may, in the eyes of the ordinary person, be merely a financial tool where one can profit by betting on outcomes.

Yet, perhaps in unseen corners for the ordinary eye, it has long since degenerated into those white gloves that can arbitrarily redefine the very concepts of right and wrong, repeatedly emptying people's assets through rule updates that intervene in market transactions and asymmetrical information.

And how long the ordinary person can survive here ultimately depends on the desires and moral compass of the elite.

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