Analyzing the Top 10 BTC Top Indicators: Why Is the Current Bull Market Different From Before?

2025-12-22 10:28

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In past Bitcoin bull market cycles, the price has often experienced some overheating signals near the peak. However, this current bull run seems to have undergone some significant changes—many tried-and-true indicators have yet to signal a top, and since Bitcoin hit a new high on October 6, the price has been in a continuous decline, leading to a bearish outlook on several indicators.

Article Source: WEEX Labs

In previous Bitcoin bull market cycles, the price top has often been marked by overheating signals. However, this bull market seems to have undergone some significant changes—many tried-and-tested indicators have yet to signal the top, and the Bitcoin price has been steadily declining since hitting a new high on October 6th, further driving many indicators to a bearish view. In the following sections, we will examine 10 classic indicators, evaluate their characteristics and limitations, and unravel the underlying changes in Bitcoin and the entire crypto market.

1. Pi Cycle Top Indicator: Has the Cycle Peak Been Reached?

The Pi Cycle indicator is a classic tool used to identify the price top of Bitcoin by the 111-day Moving Average (111DMA) and the 350-day Moving Average multiplied by 2 (350DMA x 2).

Generally, when the short-term line crosses above the long-term line, it often signals the market top as it indicates that the price has risen too rapidly and deviated from fundamental support.

In history, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator has exhibited crosses before each bull market top:

2017 Top: The 111DMA crossed the 350DMA x 2, marking the bubble that later burst;

2021 Double Top: Similar to the cross, the first top appeared, and the market quickly retraced;

However, currently (2025 Q4), as shown in the chart below, the two lines have not crossed yet.

Source: https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator

2. Puell Multiple: Is Miner Profitability Excessive?

The Puell Multiple measures the daily miner income relative to the 365-day Moving Average to evaluate miner profitability levels and the market cycle.

Its principle is based on miner behavior: when the ratio is too high, miners are highly profitable, which may increase selling pressure, leading to a top; when too low, it indicates miner capitulation, signaling a bottom. In other words, a high Puell Multiple reflects a market where "miners are making too much money," with supply pressure building up.

In history, the Puell Multiple has also shown extreme spikes before each previous bull market top:

2017 Top: Above 7, a historical high;

2021 Double Top: Above 3, followed by a crash;

And currently (2025 Q4), the Puell Multiple is in the 1–2 range, indicating moderate miner pressure.

Source: https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/puell-multiple

3. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: Is the Price in the "Sell" Zone?

The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart overlays a rainbow-colored band on a logarithmic growth curve to assess Bitcoin's long-term valuation levels.

Its principle maps the price to the band: the blue zone represents undervaluation (buy), and the red zone represents overvaluation (sell). The band is based on a historical growth curve, helping identify market sentiment extremes.

Historically, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart has entered the red zone before each bull market top:

2017 Top: Deep red zone, bubble peak;

2021 Double Top: Orange-red zone, followed by a correction;

And currently (2025 Q4), the price is in the yellow-orange range, yet to touch the red bubble zone. We have also seen many analysts adjust this indicator, but no matter the adjustment, as of the present, the price has not reached the red bubble zone of past historical experience.

Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

4. 2-Year MA Multiplier: Has the Multiplier Peaked?

The 2-Year MA Multiplier (also known as the Golden Ratio Multiplier) identifies price resistance zones by multiplying the 2-year moving average by the Fibonacci ratio.

Its principle combines the Golden Ratio (1.6) and the Fibonacci sequence to evaluate the price's multiple relative to the long-term average: a high multiple indicates overheating, predicting a pullback. In other words, a high multiple means the price is "deviating too far from the long-term trend," accumulating risk.

Historically, the 2-Year MA Multiplier has exhibited extreme multiples before each bull market top:

2017 Top: The indicator was 10 times higher than the price, and the price peaked one month after crossing above the 2 Yr MA * 5;

2021 Double Top: It exceeded 5 times, and the price experienced its first peak right after touching the 2 Yr MA * 5;

As of the current time (2025 Q4), the multiple is in the 2-3 range, not yet in the high multiple zone.

Source:https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/bitcoin-investor-tool/

5. Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average: Is the Price Significantly above the Long-Term Moving Average?

The Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average calculates the 4-year price average to assess Bitcoin's macro trend.

Its principle smooths out cyclical fluctuations: a price significantly above the average indicates overheating, while proximity to the average signifies balance. In other words, excessive deviation implies "cyclical bubbles," accumulating risk.

Historically, the Bitcoin 4-Year Moving Average has shown extreme price divergences before each bull market top:

2017 Top: The indicator reached 16;

2021 Double Top: It reached 6 at the first top, followed by a crash;

As of the current time (2025 Q4), the price peaked at 2.3, showing a decreasing peak trend.

Source:https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/four-year-moving-average

6. Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score: Is Valuation Entering the Risk Zone?

The MVRV Z-Score is an on-chain indicator that assesses whether Bitcoin's valuation is "deviating from its fair value."

Its principle is to compare Bitcoin's current market value with its "realized value" (i.e., the total sum of all coin holders' cost basis), and then calculate the standard deviation of this comparison. In other words, the higher the Z-Score, the more people are in unrealized gains, the market is "overearning," and risk begins to accumulate.

In history, the MVRV Z-Score has shown extreme spikes before each bull market top:

2017 Top: Approaching 10, a historical extreme;

2021 Double Top: The first top surpassed 7, followed by a market crash;

Currently (Q4 2025), the Z-Score is in the 2-4 range, indicating that the valuation is still neutral.

Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/mvrv-z-score

It is worth mentioning that the MVRV Rate adds statistical analysis to the MVRV, measuring the standard deviation between the current MVRV and its historical average. This standardization helps identify when the Bitcoin exchange rate is above or below "fair value." However, as shown in the chart below, this value at each bull market peak also shows a decreasing trend, and even a divergence between the price and the peak, making it much more difficult to use this indicator to predict the top.

Source: https://charts.bitbo.io/mvrv

7. Altcoin Season Index: Is the Alt Season Underway?

The Altcoin Season Index tracks the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin to assess whether the "alt season" has started.

Its principle is based on relative performance: an index above 75 indicates the start of the alt season, often appearing after a BTC top, as funds flow from BTC to alts. In other words, a high index implies a weakening Bitcoin dominance, with market risk becoming more diversified.

In history, each bull market top has been marked by a frenzy of altcoins, signaling the end:

Top in 2017: Above 90, altcoin season erupts;

Double top in 2021: Above 80, followed by a BTC correction;

Currently (Q4 2025), the index is in the 30-40 range, with a lackluster performance in the altcoin sector. In fact, since the beginning of this BTC bull market, this index has not exceeded 60, possibly due to insufficient liquidity and excessive issuance of new coins.

Source:https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/altcoin-season-index

8. Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply (LTH): Is the supply of long-term holders decreasing?

Bitcoin Long Term Holder Supply (LTH) tracks the supply of Bitcoin held for over 155 days, reflecting HODLer behavior.

The principle is to observe supply changes: at the top, LTH tends to sell, realizing profits; at the bottom, accumulation occurs. In other words, a decrease in LTH supply indicates "smart money" exiting, signaling high risk.

Historically, there has also been a significant decrease in LTH before each bull market top:

Top in 2017: The selling period lasted a year, reaching a peak at the top;

Double top in 2021: The first top followed a trend of continuous selling for six months, but the accumulation at the second top hit a historic high;

Currently (Q4 2025), there has been a slow sell-off for half a year, but it does not align with the historical experience from October.

Source:https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-holder-supply

9. Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (STH): Has the Short-Term Holder Supply Surged?

Bitcoin Short Term Holder Supply (STH) tracks the proportion of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days to assess new entrants/speculators.

Its principle is to capture new fund inflows: a high proportion indicates widespread speculation, often signaling a top; a low proportion indicates a mature market. In other words, a high STH implies "too many newcomers," making the bubble prone to bursting.

Historically, STH has exhibited a surge before each bull market top:

2017 Top: Nearly 8M BTC, speculative peak;

2021 Double Top: Nearly 6.5M BTC at the first top, the absolute top subsequent sell-off didn't reach peak;

Currently, STH is steadily rising, approaching 5.5M BTC, but the price peak was on October 6th, and unlike the past two bull cycles, there isn't a close temporal correlation between STH peaks and price tops.

Source:https://newhedge.io/bitcoin/short-term-holder-supply

10. Bitcoin Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL): Is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss in Greed Territory?

Bitcoin NUPL measures the overall network's unrealized profit/loss ratio to assess market sentiment.

Its principle is: calculating market cap minus realized cap, then dividing by market cap: above 0.75 indicates greed (top signal); below 0 indicates fear (bottom). In other words, a high NUPL means "everyone is in profit," posing a high sell-off risk.

Historically, Bitcoin NUPL has shown extremely high values before each bull market top:

2017 Top: Exceeded 0.8, a historical extreme;

2021 Double Top: Exceeded 0.7, followed by a crash;

Currently (2025 Q4), NUPL rose to a high of 0.64 in early March 2024, then continued to fluctuate, and is now down to 0.34.

Source:https://charts.bitbo.io/net-unrealized-profit-loss

Conclusion: Structural Changes in This Bitcoin Bull Market

From the above indicators, the current Bitcoin market trend does not exhibit extreme behavior similar to past bull market tops. Historical tops have often been characterized by multiple indicators simultaneously overheating, such as high Z-Scores, high Puell Multiple, and NUPL entering the greed zone, accompanied by LTH selling and
STH surges. However, these indicators are currently showing mild behavior. This does not necessarily mean that the current Bitcoin price has not topped, as these indicators are based on room for growth. The chart below, which predicts a price top based on a 3-year time cycle, seems to indicate that Bitcoin has indeed peaked.

Source:https://x.com/btc_MasterPlan/status/1978180632410042828/photo/1

Of course, when analyzing the above indicators, we also observe that these tools based on linear price trends for predicting tops have shown signs of diminishing returns in the top area, displaying characteristics of diminishing marginal returns. For example, the peak values of MVRV at the 2017, 2021, and 2025 bull market tops were 10, 7, 3, respectively. Clearly, we cannot expect MVRV to reach 7 in this current bull market phase, and it is not easy to reliably predict the corresponding peak value for the current bull market top based on MVRV alone. In other words, while these indicators suggest that the market is in a neutral or mild range, they do not confirm whether the bull market is still ongoing or a bear market has begun. Instead, it indicates that the current Bitcoin market growth has become more gradual rather than explosive. This may be attributed to:

• Firstly, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has attracted substantial long-term capital, stabilizing the supply dynamics. This is in contrast to the past bubble formation driven by retail investors, slowing down the overheating rate.

• Secondly, global liquidity changes in 2025 (Fed rate cuts vs. Yen rate hikes) and geopolitical changes have repeatedly disrupted BTC's price, while the stable changes in various indicators precisely show that the market has become more mature.

In conclusion, regardless of whether the current high on October 6th is the peak of this bull market phase, we need to recognize that Bitcoin's price volatility may have surpassed historical frameworks and experiences, as it seems to be undergoing a structural transformation from a "cyclical asset" to a "mainstream reserve." It is important to note that for investors, these indicators may require adjusting thresholds or using them in combination to make better investment decisions.

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