WEEX Labs: Is the Super Bull Market Cycle Prediction Here?

2025-12-04 02:33

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Predicting the market is not about gambling or trading memes, but about the collective brain's anticipation and game theory in pricing events.

Source: WEEX

In the current bearish market sentiment, Prediction Markets have become a "safe haven for information" — traders are tired of the sell-off-induced volatility and are more eager to bet on event-driven certainty. Prediction Markets are taking over from Memes as a hot area for monetizing attention economy.

Prediction Markets: A Storm of Attention in a Downtrend Market

The crypto market is currently in a downturn, and Prediction Markets, along with ZK and Perp DEX, are the only bright spots, with their common feature being betting on the future of the crypto narrative.

In particular, Prediction Markets are fueling a trillion-dollar narrative: in the past week, the total market nominal trading volume surged to $3.5 billion, with over 290,000 weekly active users, and the open interest approaching last year's peak of $900 million during the U.S. election bet.

Figure 1 Source: https://dune.com/datadashboards/prediction-markets

This is no coincidence.

During the 2024 U.S. election, Polymarket's prediction accuracy crushed traditional polls, with the trading volume skyrocketing from $62 million in May of that year to $2.1 billion in October — a growth of over 32 times. Post-election, the heat continues: on the day of the Nobel Peace Prize announcement, a single market saw over $21.40 million in trading.

Compliance + Capital Driving Narrative Upgrade

The resurgence of Prediction Markets is driven by a narrative upgrade fueled by relaxed regulations and capital inflows.

• Relaxed Regulations: Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's crypto-friendly policies, negative regulations are shifting towards cautious openness. The CFTC dropped its appeal against the political event contracts of the Prediction Platform Kalshi, Polymarket was allowed to operate as an intermediary market, and Kalshi, under CFTC regulation, claimed "legal betting in 50 states."

• Capital Inflows: ICE invested $2 billion in Polymarket, setting a record for the largest amount ever raised in crypto financing history, pushing the valuation to $9 billion; Kalshi raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation recently; Solana, BNB Chain, and others have also started supporting prediction products on their respective public chains.

• Narrative Upgrading: Predicting the market's narrative shift, bringing more user engagement and propagation. As stated by @multicoin Investment Partner @eliqiann, in addition to cash flow assets (such as stocks, bonds), supply-demand assets (such as commodities, forex), the crypto prediction market has given rise to "assets measured by attention," rather than binary options or gambling.

Figure 2 Source: https://news.kalshi.com/p/nationwide-poll-shows-broad-support-for-prediction-markets

Key Players to Watch

The landscape has already begun to divide. For brevity, WEEX Labs discusses a few key platforms here.

Figure 3 Source: https://x.com/dylangbane/status/1969129269940142528

• @Polymarket—Polymarket is a veteran prediction platform, founded in 2020, with over $2.2B in cumulative funding, leading political and economic event markets. Polymarket supports USDC settlement and operates on the Polygon chain, with over 1.5 million users.

• @Kalshi—Kalshi emphasizes KYC and institutional-grade liquidity in a U.S.-compliant prediction market, founded in 2018, focusing on sports, macro events, and integrating with Robinhood. If Polymarket is akin to Tether, then Kalshi is more like Circle, but Kalshi's market share is beginning to surpass Polymarket.

• @opinionlabsxyz—Opinion is an emerging prediction platform supported by YZi Labs, focusing on Eastern narratives like celebrity popularity, among others, with current market share hovering in the top three.

• @trylimitless——Limitless is a high-frequency short-term prediction platform founded in 2023, with a total funding of $18M, operating on the Base and Arbitrum chains.

• @MyriadMarkets——Myriad is a social native platform based on Abstract L2, positioned as a low-threshold social prediction tool covering diverse event topics.

• @soraoracle——In contrast to the user-facing prediction protocols above, Sora focuses on a developer-oriented oracle service, being the first multimodal AI agent oracle project for prediction markets on the BNB Chain. The protocol's governance token $SORA is also listed on the WEEX exchange.

Summary

Prediction markets are not about gambling or trading memes but about the collective intelligence's anticipation and game theory on event pricing.

With Polymarket hinting at launching a token next year, the prediction market may see a wave of wealth creation through information asymmetry and insight monetization. We await eagerly.