Original Title: "From $4 Million in Profits to Zero Assets, The Mystery of the Fall of Polymarket's 'Sports Betting God'"

Original Author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Polymarket's prophecy game has always been a feast for the few and a gamble for the many. Similar to the futures market, it is also full of "black swan reversals," especially when it comes to sports upsets.

Today, we will discuss the downfall of a trader once hailed as the "Sports Betting God" — Mayuravarma. This individual, known by the ID with an Indian-style caste name as the "Prediction Bird," once violently escalated a $5,000 initial investment to $3.8 million in just one month, achieving a staggering 760x profit and briefly rising to sixth place on the sports betting profit leaderboard. However, what goes up must come down, and in just one week, his assets were almost reduced to zero.

Mayuravarma's experience once again confirms that in Polymarket, the so-called "endgame strategy" is not reliable. Betting events like sports matches often experience dramatic last-minute reversals — what you wager is not just that little bit of "guaranteed return," but your entire principal.

Next, let us review together the collapse of this prophecy legend.

Rebirth of an Indian Nobleman as the "Sports Betting God": The Predictive Market Journey Starting from an LOL Match

Mayuravarma initially embarked on his predictive market journey starting from an LOL World Championship match. According to his profile, he placed a total of 9 bets during the LOL S15 World Championship, resulting in 6 wins and 3 losses, with a win rate of approximately 67%. Ultimately, his LOL match betting accumulated losses of around $20,000, profits of around $790,000, including:

· In the AL vs. T1 match, he wagered $150,000 and won $162,500;

· In the KT vs. T1 final, he bet $1.1 million and ultimately won nearly $600,000.

· From Esports Events to the American Professional Sports League: Mayuravarma's Path to Becoming a God

Utilizing the annual world-class esports events, Mayuravarma successfully earned a net profit of about $770,000. After briefly betting on 3 rounds of LOL matches, he embarked on his own "path to becoming a sports betting god" and expanded his betting domain from LOL esports events to various American professional leagues and sports events—CFB (College Football in the US), NHL (National Hockey League events), NBA (National Basketball Association events), and NFL (National Football League events), and more.

At first, Mayuravarma's betting strategy almost seemed like a "sure win bet": in 5 CFB games and 2 NHL matches, through multiple bets, he achieved a return on investment of around 30% to 82%, with a maximum profit of up to $360,000.

This also reveals Mayuravarma's betting style: he tends to prefer pre-game betting, with wager amounts ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars, and rarely sells during the game. This has not only enabled him to gradually build a large sum of money from a small initial investment in the early stages but also set the stage for his subsequent attempts at going ALL IN and making a desperate comeback in NHL matches, which ultimately backfired.

Subsequently, after venturing into NFL game betting, his winning percentage plummeted dramatically: in 5 NFL games, his win rate dropped from the 100% win rate from his previous CFB game bets to around 40%.

There are two dramatic details worth highlighting here:

First, in an early NHL match between Wild and Rangers, Mayuravarma had previously bet on Rangers to win against Wild at a 57:43 odds ratio, resulting in a painful loss of $275,000 in betting funds; in a subsequent NHL match, he once again bet on the opponent of Wild, the Devils, with a slightly under $120,000 wager and made a profit of $86,000 due to the higher win rate, demonstrating the randomness of the prediction market.

Second, in the NHL match between Wild and Penguins on November 22, he wagered $1 million on the Penguins to win, but Wild surprisingly defeated Penguins 5-0, resulting in a loss of his $1 million betting funds.

After that, Mayuravarma began betting on NBA games, with 2 matches where he correctly predicted the Warriors to defeat the Lakers, earning nearly $100,000 in a single game, bringing his win rate to 50%.

The subsequent betting events may seem somewhat mundane, but the process was smooth sailing for Mayuravarma. He maintained a relatively high win rate in LOL, NHL, and NBA matches, and from these betting interfaces, we can also see another one of his betting styles: preferring to bet on teams with a higher pre-game winning probability and stronger strength rather than hoping for an upset reversal. This to some extent reflects Mayuravarma's deep attention and understanding of various sports events, which has not only provided some security for his continued profitability but has also left a certain risk for unexpected upsets in the matches.

After all, just like the famous saying in football matches and various sports events: "Football is round, anything can happen." It could be an own goal, a display of individual heroism with a solo run, or even a referee's unintentional mistake. In any case, in sports events, there is infinite possibility, and every unexpected outcome is a high-stakes gamble for the bettor.

· The Potential Impact of Prediction Markets: When Money Becomes Digital on Paper

In each round of betting, Mayuravarma's wager amount kept increasing, starting from $2,000 and gradually rising to tens of thousands of dollars. Eventually, the bets escalated to $100,000. In less than a month, Mayuravarma transformed from the initial "prediction market newbie" to the "betting whale" in the eyes of Polymarket players.

From the settlement records below, during this phase, Mayuravarma was in the "normal distribution range":

· Out of 24 matches, the win rate remained at 50%, with 12 successful bets and the rest being losses;

· Out of the 12 failed bets, a total of approximately $840,000 was invested, resulting in full losses;

· Out of the 12 winning bets, around $1.64 million was profit, with a profit-to-loss ratio close to 2, meaning the profit was about 1.95 times the loss;

· The two largest losses came from NBA matches, with one loss of $102,600 and another loss of $102,000;

· The biggest profit came from an NHL match between the Bruins and the Senators, where $992,000 was invested, yielding over $607,000 in profit.

Overall, Mayuravarma's betting results in this phase can be classified as "losing small, winning big." Notably, in the NBA match between the Jazz and Trail Blazers, Mayuravarma finally learned to cut losses in time. With a $20,000 investment, they stopped their losses at just under $300, exiting to avoid a total collapse.

Mayuravarma Betting Event Result Record (Time Descending from Bottom to Top)

In the subsequent bets, Mayuravarma seemed to have once again found the key to the prediction market and returned to the status of "Invincible General": out of 12 matches, only 3 were losses, with all others resulting in wins. It was also during this phase that Mayuravarma experienced a highlight:

In the CFB match between Houston and UCF, with a bet of $745,000, Mayuravarma ultimately won $687,200, achieving a profit margin of 92.25%. This was also the largest profit in their account to date, ranking first out of 108 betting actions.

However, following this, perhaps akin to the "after reaching a new high, there is always a pullback" in the crypto market, Mayuravarma, after experiencing personal success, faced their darkest hour: in the next 10 matches (including the previous one, totaling 11 matches in total), as if their luck had run out, they suffered a painful "10 consecutive losses," accumulating a loss of $2,050,000.

During this phase, most of Mayuravarma's losses (8 out of 11 matches) were in NHL hockey matches, a sport known for its unpredictability, with an upset rate of about 30%, which is the highest among the four major professional sports leagues in the United States, surpassing NBA, MLB, NFL, and other events. This may have to some extent set the stage for their ultimate "one wrong move, lose all" outcome.

11 Consecutive Losses Disaster

· How a Gambler is Made: When Bettors No Longer Settle for Small Games

Perhaps, just like fengdubiying only betting on LOL esports matches and ultimately making millions of dollars through skill and luck, after enduring a painful losing streak, LOL esports matches also became Mayuravarma's "lucky charm."

After being in custody and winning the "T1 LOL S15 World Championship," earning a whopping $600,000 in profit, Mayuravarma once again found his "gambling luck." His overall performance finally shook off bad luck, experiencing both wins and losses.

However, at this point, he may have already been accustomed to treating money as mere numbers in bets. His betting funds are no longer limited to the previous $100,000 level but have increased to hundreds of thousands of dollars, daring to bet as much as $1 million with a profit rate of around 30%.

When a trader who has always been known for a "prudent and conservative, only buy strong teams" style changes his previously cautious trading attitude, undoubtedly, to some extent, he has already been influenced by the complex market environment and the obsession of "just wanting to win." The outcome is naturally evident.

Transaction Records (from bottom to top, in chronological order)

From January Miracle to Weekly Fall: Mayuravarma's "Dynasty Road" Comes to an End

On November 14th, with about a month of trading, Mayuravarma's personal profit fund soared from the initial $7,000 to nearly $3.9 million.

Mayuravarma Account Peak Profit Data

However, just a week later, Mayuravarma suffered consecutive losses in NHL and CFB matches, causing his profits to nearly reach zero:

· In the CFB match between Texas State and Southern Miss, he boldly bet $1.2 million on Southern Miss to win, ultimately losing all the principal amount;

· In the NHL match between the Capitals and the Canadiens, he went ALL IN again, investing $1.2 million to buy the Canadiens with a higher pre-match winning rate. Eventually, without timely stop-loss, he lost nearly $1.2 million, turning his personal profit and loss data from a profit to a loss of -$3.8 million within a week.

It was also on last Saturday, November 22, that, after experiencing a rollercoaster-like plot of "making over 3.8 million in profit and then giving it all back," Mayuravarma, in a fit of rage, deleted his X platform account.

Subsequently, perhaps unwilling to accept becoming a laughingstock on Polymarket, Mayuravarma once again transferred $1 million to his personal account and once more bet on various sports events, but the end result was still more losses than gains.

As of the time of writing (November 26), Mayuravarma's personal account interface on Polymarket shows that his accumulated losses amount to $885,000, with a current position holding of approximately $278,500. This also means that not only did he give back all his previous betting profits, but he also lost hundreds of thousands of dollars of his principal.

In a sense, predicting the outcome of sports events where one side's victory means the other's defeat in the prediction market is not much different from the "either up or down" contract market: in a limited choice environment, what seems like a less expansive prediction market may be more brutal than a leveraged contract market, as many find it challenging to implement timely stop-loss orders in contract trading and instead choose to wait for the dust to settle or hope for an underdog upset towards the end of an event. At that moment, players not only lose their eager anticipation but also their hard-earned valuable principal.

Under the automatic settlement mechanism at the end of the event, the prediction market's "winners take all" scenario appears even more brutal.

Does ID Determine Fate? From fengdubiying to "Peacock Dynasty Builder"

Perhaps the prediction market always carries a bit of mysticism— even a trader's ID acts like a mysterious incantation quietly influencing their profit and loss trajectory. Like fengdubiying we once interviewed, the ID Mayuravarma itself tells a story.

In Sanskrit, Mayura's prototype is "मयूर" (Mayūra), meaning "peacock," symbolizing sanctity and beauty in Indian culture; Varma is commonly seen in South Asian surnames, originating from the Sanskrit "वर्मन्" (Varman), meaning "protector" or "armor," often associated with nobility or warrior classes; moreover, the Varma suffix is prevalent in the surnames of Kerala state in India, hinting at the protector duties within the caste system.

In addition, as mentioned in Mayuravarma Polymarket's personal homepage introduction, this ID is also associated with the founder of the Kadamba dynasty in India, Mayurasharma. The dynasty, symbolized by a peacock, ruled the region that is now the state of Karnataka in India. The name of the dynasty's founder, Mayurasharma, signifies "protector of the peacock." Inscriptions in South India record that his name reflects a combination of Kshatriya (warrior caste) and nature worship.

Just like the "Peacock Dynasty" that has disappeared into the river of history, in the flourishing development of prediction markets, Mayuravarma is also just a transient "trading footnote."

It is foreseeable that the legendary star who suddenly became rich like him is still eagerly participating in Polymarket's prediction market, while there are also many traders who, like him, have fallen from grace and lost all their assets. Similar to the "Blood Brother" Li Cheng in the derivatives market who has repeatedly experienced setbacks and comebacks, Mayuravarma is not the first and will not be the last.

Original Article Link

Welcome to join the official BlockBeats community:

Telegram Subscription Group: https://t.me/theblockbeats

Telegram Discussion Group: https://t.me/BlockBeats_App

Official Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/BlockBeatsAsia