Flash Depth Data Forum

Forum

Search Extension

How to Achieve a Super High Win Rate on Polymarket Through Insider Trading?

2025-10-16 14:30

Read this article in 15 Minutes

The more insiders involved, the more accurate the price, and the more reliable the market-provided information.

Original Article Title: How Polymarket Insiders Can Help You Win Almost Every Time

Original Article Author: The Smart Ape, LBank Partner
Original Article Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

How to Find Polymarket Insiders

Polymarket is a large and rapidly growing market, with a trading volume exceeding $15 billion since its launch.

What is fascinating is that users can employ many advanced strategies to profit, such as arbitrage, providing liquidity, capturing discounts, high-frequency trading, and more.

It is still an early and evolving market, now entering a regulatory phase, which means there are still plenty of opportunities.

But one method is still largely untapped: insider analysis.

Polymarket is an open platform, meaning anyone can create markets on anything. Some markets are entirely based on public information, such as "Who will win the next World Cup?," while others involve events where a small number of people already know the answer, like "Who will receive the next Nobel Peace Prize?"

In the Nobel Prize market, the committee responsible for selecting the Nobel Prize laureates obviously knows the results earlier than anyone else, and some of them may quietly use this information to trade on Polymarket.

If you can track the movements of these insiders, you can essentially bet on the correct outcome almost with certainty because insiders know exactly what will happen.

Another example is "Monad Airdrop by October 31st."

The project team and those closely related to the project already know if it will happen, so anyone able to track those wallets has a significant advantage.

There are several ways to detect potential insider activity.

The simplest method is to use Hashdive(dot)com, which is currently the best Polymarket analytics tool, providing extensive metrics and data for each market.

· First, select a market where insider activity may be taking place, such as the Monad airdrop.

· Click into that market, and you will see a detailed page including analysis and metrics.

· Scroll down to the "Possible Insiders" section.

Let's take the first trader on the list as an example:

They have wagered $100,000 on "No," and this is their only trade in the market.

This is highly suspicious—a new wallet putting in a large sum on a single market.

This individual is likely a member of the Monad team or closely associated with them.

The goal is not to focus on individual traders but to analyze the collective activity of a group.

Some may be true insiders while others may just be following along; the key is in the overall pattern.

In this example, almost all top traders have wagered "No."

The top eight wallets are all on the same side, each using a new wallet and holding a large position in just one or two markets.

This is a clear signal: insiders seem confident that there will be no Monad airdrop by October 30.

Currently, the price for the "No" side is around $0.83, implying a potential guaranteed return of nearly 17% by October 30.

Some markets do not have a "Possible Insiders" section, which is perfectly normal.

For example, the "Bolivia Presidential Election" market is unlikely to have real insiders because in a neck-and-neck competition, nobody truly knows how the people will vote.

Therefore, the key is to choose markets where insider information may exist and to track insider movement early.

The earlier you spot these movements, the higher your potential profit.

If you wait too long, more insiders will join, prices will shift, and your profit opportunity will diminish.

Your advantage entirely depends on how early you can discover them.

Nobel Prize Case Study

One of the best examples of this strategy in actual application is the market:

“2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner.”

Some traders apparently had the information 9 hours before the official announcement.

In a matter of seconds, Maria Machado’s odds surged from 3.6% to 70%, well before the results were made public.

This was evidently an insider move, with someone leaking the decision ahead of time.

Some traders saw returns 20 times their investment, either because they followed the insider’s lead or because they were the insiders themselves:

· Debased turned $2.5K into $75K

· CannonFodders turned $900 into $30K

· Gopfan 2 turned $700 into $26K

They all entered the market as soon as Maria Machado’s odds mysteriously began to soar.

These individuals could be members of the Nobel Committee, closely related to the committee, or even investigative journalists who discovered the leak.

One thing is certain: some had reliable information 9 hours before the official announcement.

When the Polymarket market’s odds jumped from 3% to 70% within minutes, the presence of insiders is undeniable.

The Norwegian authorities even launched an insider trading investigation into the matter.

Reportedly, they focused on wallet ‘6741,’ which bet $50K a few hours before the results were announced. That wallet had only transacted once and only on this market, which immediately raised suspicions.

Why Having Insiders Is Actually a Good Thing

Initially, you might think insiders are detrimental to Polymarket, but in reality, they helped it achieve its true purpose.

Polymarket's true mission is not about making money or losing money, but about revealing the collective truth about future events.

The more insiders there are, the more accurate the price, and the more reliable the information the market provides.

Take the Nobel Prize, for example. I don't need to wait for the official announcement; Polymarket has already told me who the winner is. In this sense, Polymarket beats all major media outlets to the punch, which is precisely why it's so powerful.

Insiders with reliable information help correct pricing errors and indirectly pass on this knowledge to everyone else through price changes. It's an ultra-efficient mechanism for information dissemination.

Without insiders, prices reflect only views and speculation. With them, prices reflect hidden yet real facts.

That's why some economists, like the creator of the concept of "prediction markets," believe insider trading is beneficial in this case:

It narrows the gap between belief and reality. It also creates a truth incentive system:

If insiders trade based on true information, they profit. If they are wrong or lie, they lose. There's no motivation to spread fake news because they'll pay the price for being wrong. Most importantly, these insiders don't harm others.

Unlike in the token market, where insiders dump tokens on retail traders, prediction markets are voluntary, and traders are aware of the risk of information asymmetry.

It's a game of probability, not long-term investment. Therefore, as long as the rules are clear, insiders can improve the accuracy of predictions without causing systemic unfairness.

Tools to Track Them

Here are some of the most useful tools for analyzing Polymarket data.

This list is not exhaustive, as new tools are constantly emerging.

Dune Dashboards: Dozens of Polymarket dashboards, some are overarching (volume, users, trades), others are specialized (insiders, airdrop tracker, whales, etc.).

PolymarketAnalytics(dot)com: One of the most comprehensive tools. It lets you track market traders in real-time, discover top alerts, whales, smart money, and analyze performance.

Hashdive(dot)com: Another powerful analytics platform. Each market page includes in-depth metrics, as well as a new "Insiders" section to help you identify potential insider traders.

@polyburg: Tracking the movements of "smart money" on Polymarket before it goes mainstream.

@Polysights: Aggregating real-time and historical data, and applying an AI/ML layer to generate advanced analytics, trends, arbitrage ideas, and alerts.