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Overly Bullish Sentiment, Top Dodging Maneuver: Learn Arthur Hayes' "Milkshake + Dump" Trading Class

2025-09-24 18:52
Read this article in 10 Minutes
You can't help but be amazed by Arthur Hayes's audacity, but you also can't help but acknowledge his impeccable timing in escaping the top.
Original Title: "There You Go Again! A Recap of Arthur Hayes' Top Extraction Record"
Original Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily


Arthur Hayes, also known as "The Crypto Black Swan," may not always be trustworthy with his price predictions, but his actual trading actions are indeed worth studying by retail traders.


As the most well-known market oracle in the industry, although Arthur Hayes is always bullish in the long run, he is never hesitant to sell when it's time to sell, even if it means disregarding the reputations of other industry heavyweights. He would pump and dump at the same time—refer to "When Arthur Hayes Suddenly Dumps the Coin You Bought, Be Cautious."


Hasu, the Strategic Director of Flashbots, once commented on Arthur Hayes, saying, "If you got any long-term signals from Arthur Hayes, I really don't know what to tell you. He is one of the purest traders in this market."



HYPE—"Although I Saw 126x, I'll Just Take 15%"


A recent example is Hyperliquid (HYPE).


On August 25, Arthur Hayes gave a speech in Japan at WebX, pumping HYPE, a token that still had the potential to surge by up to 126x—the price of HYPE was around $45.9 at the end of that day.


Who would have thought that in less than a month, on the day after HYPE hit a new all-time high, Arthur Hayes sold 96,600 HYPE tokens, cashing out around $5.1 million—selling at an average price of $52.8, which was only a 15% increase from the price when Arthur Hayes predicted a 126x gain...


Subsequently, Arthur Hayes' family office, Maelstrom, released their rationale for selling HYPE: HYPE is about to face its real test. Starting from November 29, 2025, 237.8 million HYPE tokens will begin to unlock linearly over 24 months. At $50 per token, this equates to a $11.9 billion team unlock, with nearly $500 million in tokens entering the market each month. The analysis indicates that the current buyback ability can only absorb about 17% of the unlocked tokens, leaving an excess supply of around $410 million per month. The token unlock is a potential "Sword of Damocles."


Arthur Hayes jokingly mentioned that the market crash was to pay a deposit for the Rari 849 Testarossa supercar, saying, "A 126x is still possible, but 2028 is a long way off..."


You can't help but be amazed by Arthur Hayes's audacity, but you also can't help but agree with his impeccable timing to exit the market.


On the day Arthur Hayes sold, not only had HYPE just hit an all-time high, but the Perp DEX sector's heat was also constantly rising, becoming the industry-level main narrative of the current stage. However, since Arthur Hayes's sell-off, HYPE has rapidly declined along with the overall market, currently trading at $44.18 at the time of writing, even falling below the price when Arthur Hayes mentioned the 126x expectation.


ETHFI - "This is the true value capture. Oh, suddenly listed on Upbit..."


Similar examples are not limited to the recent HYPE incident.


Just two days before Arthur Hayes sold HYPE, he also played a similar game on ether.fi (ETHFI).


Around 3:00 PM on September 18, Arthur Hayes was still actively interacting with his investment project ether.fi, praising its economic model for allowing value to flow back to ETHFI holders.


On September 19, around 11:00 AM, the Korean exchange Upbit suddenly announced the listing of ETHFI. ETHFI surged to a high of $1.695 on the same day, reaching a new high in nearly six months. Arthur Hayes wasted no time and immediately started selling, offloading 1.216 million ETHFI tokens worth about $1.89 million that day.


Subsequently, ETHFI's price fell back to around $1.2 as the market declined, and Arthur Hayes once again successfully exited at the peak.


ENA - Classic Case, Let's Review Again


When it comes to Arthur Hayes's classic exit examples, ENA is definitely worth mentioning.


Around December last year, ENA had just completed its first round of price manipulation after going live, with the price retesting $1 and showing signs of continuing its upward trend after the manipulation. Arthur Hayes had previously hyped ENA, suggesting it could surpass $10. However, while hyping the project, Arthur Hayes was actively selling off his holdings through exchanges like Binance and Bybit.


Subsequently, everyone became very familiar with ENA's journey. After Arthur Hayes dumped the price, ENA's trend quickly weakened, plummeting to a low of $0.22 at one point. Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes calmly began rebuilding his position at the bottom, with his well-timed trades expected to pocket him millions of dollars.


Recently, perhaps having accumulated a significant amount of ENA, Arthur Hayes has once again started aggressively manipulating ENA's price—so be cautious if there are any sudden market movements.



Even Little Black Once Slipped: Sold ETH but Had to Buy It Back


Although Arthur Hayes has a track record of successful top-selling, it seems to be limited to the altcoin market where his influence is greater. On the contrary, Arthur Hayes has experienced several mishaps with ETH this year.


During this recent ETH rally, Arthur Hayes attempted multiple top-selling maneuvers but ended up getting "rekt" by the market, forcing him to buy back at a higher price.



When discussing his buyback at a higher price, Arthur Hayes even once vowed, "I will never take profit again"... but coming from his innate trader personality, few people actually believed his words.


Recent Developments: Selling Off ONDO


This morning, Arthur Hayes made a new move—last night, his address received 26.28 million ONDO tokens (worth approximately $24.7 million) from the Ondo project team's address, and he subsequently transferred them in batches to Coinbase, Bybit, Binance, and OKX, indicating a potential sell-off in progress.


Considering ONDO's current price position, although it may not be at its peak, it is still relatively high. Given Arthur Hayes's past actions, ONDO holders may need to closely monitor the price movements.


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