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Killer or helmsman? What is the attitude of the five major SEC members towards Bitcoin ETFs?

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Can the SEC version of the "Five Old Stars" usher in an era of great exploration for ETFs?

Original Title: "Holding the Power of Life and Death over ETFs? What are the Stances of the SEC's Five Commissioners on Crypto?"

Original Author: Azuma, Odaily Star Daily

As the final judgment day of the Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10 approaches, speculation about "approval" or "rejection" is becoming increasingly lively.

Yesterday evening, all major ETF applicants except Hashdex submitted updated S-1 (S-3) filings. Next, the SEC will vote on these filings as well as the previously submitted 19b-4 filings to determine whether to approve the application for a Bitcoin spot ETF.

According to FOX reporter Eleanor Terrett, the five current commissioners of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) who can participate in the ETF "life or death" resolution vote include Chairman Gary Gensler, and four commissioners Hester Peirce, Caroline Crenshaw, Mark Uyeda, and Jaime Lizárraga.

The above five individuals, what is their stance on Crypto and Bitcoin spot ETF? What will they choose in this crucial vote? Combining each person's past speech history, we try to find some clues from it.

投票人一：主席 Gary Gensler

Voter One: Chairman Gary Gensler

"Industry enemy", "human black swan"... As the SEC chairman, Gary Gensler, who has the greatest influence in this vote, may be the most hated regulator in the crypto industry.

Gensler was once regarded as an ally in the industry due to its academic research on Crypto in the early days. However, in recent years, it has led multiple lawsuits against companies and projects in the industry, and Gensler's attitude towards Crypto has undergone a 180-degree transformation.

Reference reading materials: "Forbes: Three stages detailed - How did Gary Gensler go from a crypto ally to an industry enemy?", "SEC Chairman Gary Gensler is criticized by the media: A national disgrace, hurry up and step down".

Yesterday evening, Gensler once again issued a risk warning about Crypto, emphasizing that individuals providing investment/services in encrypted assets may violate applicable laws, including federal securities laws; when investors participate in encrypted asset securities, they should understand that they may lose key information and other important protections related to their investments; in addition, investing in encrypted assets may also come with extremely high risks, usually with violent fluctuations; many major platforms and encrypted assets have experienced bankruptcy and/or devaluation; continuing to invest in encrypted assets requires recognition of significant risks.

In short, based on his past statements and actions, Gensler is more likely to stand on the opposing side in the vote... However, some believe that since the SEC has been willing to spend a great deal of effort communicating with ETF applicants in the past few months, Gensler, as the chairman, may make unexpected decisions.

投票人二：委员 Hester Peirce

Translation:

Voter 2: Commissioner Hester Peirce

Compared to Gensler, Commissioner Hester Peirce has always been the most crypto-friendly regulator, and she has been given a nickname by the industry - Crypto Mom.

Peirce has previously been outspoken in her opposition to using litigation as a substitute for regulation, believing that the SEC should proactively consider establishing a regulatory framework for crypto.

As for the attitude towards ETF, Peirce may be more radical than you think. She once said that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF based on spot prices should have been granted five years ago, and even stated: "The logic behind why the SEC has not approved a Bitcoin ETF based on spot prices has always puzzled me."

You can confidently expect Peirce to say yes.

投票人三：Caroline Crenshaw

Translation:

Voter Three: Caroline Crenshaw

Compared to Gensler and Peirce, Caroline Crenshaw's work doesn't seem to be as focused on the crypto industry. However, from her few speeches, it appears that Crenshaw holds a somewhat negative attitude towards crypto.

In November 2021, Crenshaw emphasized the regulatory issues of DeFi, stating that while DeFi can bring certain benefits, it can also pose risks if a protective regulatory framework is not implemented.

In January 2023, Crenshaw attended a Twitter Space event hosted by the US Army with Gensler. During the event, Crenshaw stated that Crypto is "known for scams" and that those considering investing should "think twice" about the percentage of their investment in digital assets.

Conservative guess, Crenshaw is more likely to cast a negative vote.

投票人四：Mark Uyeda

Translation:

Voter Four: Mark Uyeda

(Note: no translation for HTML tags and English characters)

Like Peirce, Mark Uyeda also holds a friendly attitude towards Crypto. The two have jointly opposed SEC's enforcement actions against industry projects.

In March 2023, after SEC rejected VanEck's Bitcoin spot ETF, Uyeda also issued a joint statement with Peirce opposing the decision. They stated that SEC's review of ETP applicants was biased, which caused the delay in approval of Bitcoin spot ETF.

It can be inferred from this that Uyeda will most likely cast a supportive vote.

投票人五：Jaime Lizárraga

Translation:

Voter Five: Jaime Lizárraga

Among the five commissioners, Jaime Lizárraga seems to be the commissioner who is furthest away from the crypto industry. In its news about Lizárraga's inauguration in 2022, foreign media Cointelegraph mentioned that "Lizárraga has basically never made any public statements about crypto and blockchain."

Since Lizárraga took office, we have not found any clear attitude expression towards Crypto.

Lizárraga's voting tendency is currently unpredictable.