Original Title: "Zero-Cost Profit of Nearly Ten Thousand US Dollars, Nostr Assets' First Fair Mint Data Review of the 'BTC Ecology'"

Original Author: Nan Zhi, Odaily Planet Daily

On December 18th at 19:03, when the Bitcoin block height reached 821716, the first Fair Mint lottery draw of the Nostr Assets Protocol officially began. As the first few draws took place, participating users discovered certain pools with extremely high "luck" levels, requiring only about 3000 lottery tokens (Treat and Trick, hereafter referred to as "double T") to win the grand prize of 2160 NOSTR. Currently, the OTC price of NOSTR has reached over 4 U.S. dollars per token, resulting in a near-zero cost profit of $10,000.

Odaily will review the investment situation of various pools and the lottery strategy in this article, as a reference for similar activities in the future.

Fair Mint Rules Summary

The first Fair Mint of Nostr Assets Protocol is divided into three stages: investment, lottery, and distribution. The details of the first two stages are as follows:

Investment Stage

The start time is December 11th, 2023. There are 12 prize pools set by the official, with the winning probability of the last four prize pools being twice that of the first eight prize pools.

The user selects 1 of 12 prize pools, invests Treat and Trick assets, and obtains pool ranking. The investment stage can continue to increase investment assets, and the ranking is also real-time until the end of the stage.

抽奖阶段

translates to

Lucky Draw Stage

·For each block, select one of the 12 prize pools based on the hexadecimal suffix of the block hash value.

·The top 50 winners of the drawn prize pool will receive a reward (if drawn again, they will be ranked 51-100);

·A total of 300 draws were conducted, with 15,000 winning addresses. The top 100 draws received 2160 NOSTR tokens, while the 101st to 200th draws received 1080 tokens, and the 201st to 300th draws received 540 tokens.

Theoretical Strategies and Practical Situations

According to official sources, the current circulation of Double T is about 87 million (total of 420 million). Calculated by average distribution, each address invests 5600 Double T (drawn by luck, in reality this situation is unlikely). Calculated by output-to-input ratio, the three investment ratios are 4:2:1, so the minimum investment is 2484 Double T (calculated by 8700000/15000/7*3), and the maximum is 9936 Double T (calculated by 2484*4).

The final lottery result is shown in the following figure, and there are several conclusions:

The average luck level of the even-numbered pool is better than that of the odd-numbered pool, and gradually returns to normal probability as the lottery progresses (but it is not completely balanced in the end).

·A pool of extreme luck appeared in both the odd-numbered pool and the even-numbered pool, named Capricorn and Taurus respectively. The lucky draw numbers are "0" and "4, c". These two pools maintained a high level of luck throughout the process and did not approach normal probability.

· In addition, the single number pool also had a particularly unlucky Sagittarius, with the lottery number "b", which maintained a high degree of bad luck throughout the entire process.

Why is the required number of awards significantly lower than the theoretical value?

For example, in the Gemini pool, there are 766 users who have invested less than 400 double Ts. Even in the lucky pool, it is impossible to win, so at least about 150,000 double Ts are wasted. The randomly selected pool situations are as follows:

In the double pool Taurus, less than 400 coins are held by 785 users.

In the Double Pool Leo, there are 684 users with less than 400 tokens.

·In the single number pool Scorpio, there are 511 users with less than 400 coins.

·In the single number pool Aries, 517 users have less than 400 tokens;

Based on the above data, at least millions of Double T have been invested in the pool with a near-zero winning probability. Furthermore, the single-number pool has about 800 users with less than 1200 tokens, and the double-number pool has about 1100 users with less than 950 tokens, which means that the winning probability of tens of millions of Double T is low. Therefore, the following conclusion can be drawn:

·There are many investment strategies that involve very small amounts of investment and rely on low probability luck, but investing too little increases the probability of normal investment.

·Total investment is about 72 million, accounting for 82.7% of the circulation, which increases the probability;

·There have been many users who have invested more than 50,000 coins in a single transaction, with the highest amount being 250,000 coins in one account, resulting in significant waste and increased probability for other users.

Theoretical Calculation: The More Lucky, The More Unlucky

For the double number pool, the probability of a single draw should be 12.5%, and the theoretical number of draws is 37.5 times. However, Taurus has drawn 47 times. In the standard "with replacement sampling" of 300 times (with the possibility of drawing from 0 to 300 times and different probabilities), the probability of drawing 37 or 38 times is 6.96% and 6.88%, respectively, while the probability of drawing 47 times is only 1.74%. It can be said that Taurus has obtained four times the lucky bonus.

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