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Week 48 on-chain data: A large influx of funds will occur, and market growth will initially decline

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Whether the benefits of ETFs are unprecedented is an adjustment of the benefits, or whether they are continuing to rise, is relatively unknown. But in the future, real money will continue to be integrated into the encryption market.

Original Title: "Meiying Shudan, Bingxi Rongxie | WTR 12.04"

Source: WTR Research Institute

Review of the Week

From November 27th to December 4th this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $40884, and the lowest was close to $36707, with a fluctuation range of about 11.38%. Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of chip transactions around 39126, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 36000-40000 is approximately 1.9 million pieces.

2. 30000~35000 is about 1 million coins;

• The probability of not breaking below 33,000 to 35,000 in the short term is 90%.

• The probability of not breaking through 42000-44000 in the short term is 60%.

Important News

Economic News

1. The market is fully pricing in a 125 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2024;

2. The European Central Bank will cut interest rates by 125 basis points in 2024 in a market with complete pricing.

3. Goldman Sachs has brought forward its expected European Central Bank interest rate cut from Q3 2024 to Q2 2024.

4. "Fed Whisperer" Nick Timiraos said not to expect Powell to support market expectations of the Fed's earliest rate cut in March next year.

5. The attractiveness of US bonds has decreased, with yields continuing to decline. The 2-year yield has fallen to 4.59%, while the 10-year yield has dropped to 4.25%, both experiencing a decline of over 2%.

6. In October, the core PCE price index had a year-on-year rate of 3.50%, which is in line with the expected value of 3.50% and lower than the previous value of 3.70%.

Encryption Ecology News

1. The ETH Foundation has released an article stating that in the coming months, the first multi-client testnet for ETH, Goerli, will no longer receive support from clients and the EF testing team. The Dencun network upgrade will be the last upgrade implemented on the network.

2. The total value of grayscale holdings is approximately $34.425 billion, with GBTC's negative premium narrowing to 8.09%; ETHE trust's negative premium rate is 13.40%.

3. Morgan Stanley's report indicates that in recent months, the expected approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on US-listed spot BTC exchanges has improved the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market, and decentralized finance and non-fungible token activities have seen some recovery.

4. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said he still believes there is a 90% chance that a BTC spot ETF will be approved before January 10, 2024, which is the same probability they have been predicting for the past few months.

5. BlackRock met with the SEC again to discuss the design mechanism of the spot BTC ETF, and presented the revised physical model design to them based on the suggestions of the staff at the November 20 meeting.

a. The main change is that offshore market makers obtain BTC from Coinbase and then prepay cash to US registered broker-dealers (who are not allowed to touch BTC).

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market/Bear market/Structural changes/Neutral state

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.

Short-term observation: Used to analyze the short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term Insight

Derivative Rating: Risk coefficient is in the danger zone, derivative risk is relatively high.

(Derivative Risk Coefficient in the following figure)

Last week, it was mentioned that the risk factor staying in the danger zone for a long time may indicate the brewing of a large fluctuation. This week, the risk factor continues to decline, and the price has also risen to above 40K. Considering the short position and risk factor, there is still room for short selling, but the space is limited.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

The trading volume of options has slightly decreased, and the proportion of put options is at a relatively low level.

(Derivative trading volume in the figure below)

Last week it was mentioned that from the perspective of trading volume, the tipping point has been reached, indicating that the current market has not yet seen a rapid increase in derivative trading volume and is still at a relatively low level. This suggests that the derivative market has not yet fully entered the stage of intense competition.

(The implied volatility of options in the figure below)

This price increase has also led to a rise in implied volatility of options.

Emotional State Rating: FOMO

(Profit and loss transfer amount in the following figure)

The current short-term holder cost has reached 32K, and the current on-chain chip profit percentage has reached 93%, which is at a relatively high level.

(The following image shows "New Addresses" and "Active Addresses")

Newly added active addresses are at a moderate level overall.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: overall large outflow, low selling pressure.

(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)

This week, there is a large amount of flow-out of "大饼".

(Net position of E-Too Exchange in the following figure)

Erbing is in a state of accumulated medium outflow.

(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)

There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded compared to last week, and stablecoin purchasing power has also slightly increased.

(Global purchasing power status as shown below)

Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded compared to last week, with more noticeable rebounds in purchasing power in Asia and Europe. There has been a slight rebound in purchasing power in the Americas, which carry more weight.

(Net position of USDT exchange shown below)

Overall, the net position of USDT exchanges is in an accumulation state.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 38000; there is a willingness to sell at 42000.

(下图 Coinbase 链下数据)

(Translation:

(The following is Coinbase off-chain data)

)

There is a willingness to purchase at prices around 36000, 37000, and 38000.

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 41500, 43000.

(下图 Binance 链下数据)

Translation:

(Binance off-chain data in the following figure)

There is a willingness to sell at around 42000 price level.

(下图 Bitfinex 链下数据)

Translation:

(The following is Bitfinex off-chain data)

There is a willingness to sell at around 40000,42000 price range.

This Week's Summary:

Summary of News:

1. The interest rate meeting on December 13th, Christmas Day on December 25th, and the end of the month will generate sentiment for spot ETFs.

2. As of November 21st, the total assets of US money market funds reached a record high of 5.76 trillion US dollars, earning around 5% interest.

This means that once the interest rate enters a downward cycle, at least trillions of dollars will flow into the capital market, risk market, or other markets. It's not unprecedented, but it can be described as a massive scale.