Partnered With:

The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to be hot, but on-chain data reveals that it is only retail investors buying in.

Read this article in 6 Minutes

Although there are a large number of new addresses now, they are mostly from small retail investors. In reality, a large amount of BTC is flowing into exchanges without any increase in capital, and there are clear signs of large investors taking profits a

Original Title: "BTC ecosystem continues to be hot, but on-chain data reveals it's just retail investors buying the dip"

Original Source: RYXC (Riyue Xiaochu)

1 BTC outflow from exchanges

We know that the incremental funds (i.e. new investors) in the BTC ecosystem are an important factor in determining future trends. The best indicator of incremental funds is the withdrawal of BTC from exchanges. According to data, in the past week, the amount of BTC held in exchanges has increased from 2.336 million to 2.35 million, with a net inflow of 14,000. In the previous week, there was only a net outflow of 1,000, and there was no large net outflow from exchanges. On the contrary, there was a large net inflow. In comparison, during the peak of ordi in May, there was a net outflow of 14,000 from exchanges in a week. This indicates that the incremental funds in the BTC ecosystem are relatively limited, and some large investors may have already cashed out.

2 BTC On-Chain Transaction Fees

With the rise of this trend, the transaction fees on the BTC blockchain have clearly increased. The general network fee is around 0.00004 BTC, but in recent days it has risen to 0.00043, an increase of 10 times. However, it should be noted that 1) it is still very different from the highest value in May, and 2) the transaction fees for BTC transactions have started to decline significantly in the past two days.

3 BTC New Address

The number of new BTC addresses can measure the number of new users. From the data, it can be seen that the daily number of new BTC addresses is around 300,000 to 400,000. However, in recent days, the daily number of new addresses has increased to 600,000, indicating a large influx of new users.

4 Different BTC Holdings

We analyze the changes in BTC holding addresses from this data dimension, from November 1st to now. The number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC decreased from 16166 to 16127, a decrease of 39. The number of addresses holding more than 10 BTC decreased from 156229 to 155975, a decrease of 254 addresses. The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC increased by 1000. However, it is important to note that it increased first and then decreased, and decreased by 600 in the last week. The number of addresses holding more than 0.01 BTC increased by 101,000.

It can be said that the number of large BTC holders is continuously decreasing. The number of addresses holding 1 or more BTC has also been decreasing in the past week. Only the number of addresses held by small retail investors with very small amounts of BTC is increasing.

Generally speaking, although there are a large number of new addresses now, they are mostly small retail investors. In fact, a large amount of BTC flowing into exchanges does not represent an increase in capital, and there are clear signs of profit-taking by large investors.