Week 40 on-chain data: market sentiment is neutral, and short-term market positive sentiment has slightly increased

Source: WTR Research Institute  

This Week Review 

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This week, from September 25th to October 2nd, the highest price of Ice Sugar Orange was near $28,430 and the lowest was close to $25,990, with a fluctuation range of about 9.39%. Observing the distribution of chips, there was a large amount of chip transactions around 26,770, which will provide certain support or pressure.

• Analysis: 

1. 26000-31000, approximately 4.16 million pieces.  

2. 20000~25000 is about 1.8 million coins;

• The probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 79%; 

• The probability of not breaking through 32000-34000 in the short term is 65%.

Important News

Economic News

1. Former CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, stated that a 5.5% interest rate is too high and the reserve ratio may be within 3%. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates earlier than anticipated and a recession is unlikely within the next day.

2. Gao Sheng believes that the Federal Reserve will only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next year, while US banks believe it will be 50-75 basis points; JPMorgan believes it will cut interest rates by 80 basis points; Morgan Stanley believes it will be 100 basis points.

3. The interest rate futures contract shows that there is about a 50% possibility of further tightening by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of this year, and the interest rate will drop to 4.65% by the end of next year, with a rate cut of 85 basis points.

4. Citigroup stated that the liquidity drought in the financing market has basically ended, and the Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase (RRP) tool will offset or even exceed the scale of debt issuance by the US Treasury Department, thereby increasing liquidity.

5. The scale of the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has dropped to $1.428 trillion, and is expected to drop to around $1 trillion by the end of the year, injecting liquidity into the market. In terms of the crypto ecosystem:

1. The trading volume of the head trading platform was once again below $400 billion last week.
2. MicroStrategy purchased 5,445 bitcoins for $147 million.
3. Binance Japan has reached a cooperation agreement with Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking to issue a yen stablecoin by the end of 2024.
4. Binance is selling its business in Russia to CommEX.
5. Global payment processing giant MoneyGram will launch a non-custodial crypto wallet.

6. The US SEC has postponed the decision time for VanEck and Ark 21Shares' physical Ethereum ETF, but will accelerate the launch of Ethereum futures ETF.

7. Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken plans to offer stock trading services in the UK and US.

8. Bernstein, a veteran asset management firm on Wall Street, stated in a research report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will not "fabricate another reason for rejection" on BTC spot ETF, but will take a middle ground and accept the supervision agreement with Coinbase.

9. The Federal Reserve has released a report titled "Tokenization: Overview and Financial Stability Implications". The report aims to provide background knowledge on tokenization and discusses its potential benefits and financial stability risks.

Long-term Insight: Used to observe our long-term situation; Bull market / Bear market / Structural changes / Neutral state.

Mid-term exploration: Used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face. 

Short-term observation: Used to analyze short-term market conditions; as well as the possibility of a certain direction and the occurrence of a certain event under certain conditions.

Long-term Insight 

• On-chain spot selling pressure

• Trading platform leader status (see figure below for on-chain spot selling pressure)

The spot selling pressure has reached the lowest point in 8 years.

Currently, the selling pressure of spot goods is almost non-existent, reaching the lowest level in history. The market pressure is the easiest it has been in 8 years. It is so easy that only a little purchasing power is needed to squeeze the market.

(Trading platform leader status in the figure below)

(Note: The content in the blockquote and p tags should not be translated)

Participants are still actively hoarding coins, but the frequency and amount of hoarding have started to decline.

The existing coin supply on the trading platform is also at its lowest level in several years.

The current trend, if not met with significant selling pressure in the medium term or sudden selling pressure due to reduced liquidity, may have a good performance in the secondary market in the next 1-2 months.

(The purchasing power differential is shown in the figure below)

The purchasing power has slightly weakened, which may have some impact in the near future.

• Derivative wind risk coefficient 

• Option intention transaction ratio  

• Derivative trading volume 

• Ice Sugar Orange Trading Platform Net Leader  

• Auntie Trading Platform Net Leader  

Derivative Rating: The risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the risk is increasing.

At the same time as the price rises, the risk factor has also fallen to the danger zone.

(The following chart shows the ratio of option intention to transaction)

(下图 衍⽣品成交量)

(Trading volume of derivative products in the following figure)

(The following figure shows the transfer of profit and loss)

In the past few weeks, the market sentiment has been in a neutral and tepid state.

The positive sentiment in the market this week has been slightly boosted with the rise in prices, while the panic sentiment remains at a low level.

The current price has reached the cost range for short-term holders. This week, we are still paying attention to market panic sentiment represented by the transfer of losses.

This week, there has been a significant decrease in newly added addresses and a slight decrease in active addresses.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it presents an accumulated outflow state with relatively low selling pressure.

The current state of Da Bing is a small amount of outflow.

E is currently in a state of trace flow.

Currently there is no high-weight pressure.

Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has slightly rebounded, and stablecoin purchasing power has also slightly rebounded.

(Global purchasing power status in the following figure)

The purchasing power of Sanzhou has rebounded, with the largest increase in purchasing power in Asia.

(Net leader of USDC trading platform as shown below)

(USDT trading platform net leader)

USDT is currently experiencing a small inflow.

The market style will face a new transformation.

The birth of a new era and the emergence of a new history may be witnessed in the future.

On-chain Long-term Insights:

• Market tone: The current market has very low selling pressure, and only a very small amount of buying can push the market up.

On-chain Mid-term Exploration: 

1. Short-term participants enter a hovering (non-loss) stage, and the short-term liquidity pressure may be temporarily relieved.

2. The current pace has slowed down, and the proportion of long-term participants has increased relative to short-term ones.

3. The on-site is still in a weak accumulation state.

4. On-chain activity is slowly increasing.

5. Purchasing power is relatively weakened.

• Market tone-setting:  

There has been a slight increase in on-chain activity in the mid-term, but the pace is slow and purchasing power needs to be repaired.

Meanwhile, if there is no urgent selling pressure, there may be trend performance in the next 1-2 months.

1. The wind risk coefficient is in the danger zone, and the wind risk is increasing.

3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.

• Market tone-setting:  

The market sentiment is neutral, changing from the previously cold and indifferent tone. The short-term market has slightly increased in positive sentiment.

Waiting for further price increase, spot dynamic hedging.

Risk Reminder: The above are all market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional views on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

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