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SignalPlus Macro Research Report: SEC Delays Decision on First Batch of BTC Spot ETF Applications.

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Due to the price remaining in a sideways trend, CME's open interest in ETH has dropped to a one-year low.

Original Title: "SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230814)"

Original Source: SignalPlus Chinese

Unlike CPI data that is mixed with information, last Friday's PPI data was significantly higher than expected, with overall PPI and core PPI rising 0.3% month-on-month, the strongest data since the beginning of the year. PPI year-on-year growth increased from 0.2% last month to 0.8%, and components related to PCE (such as airfare) were higher than expected.

On the other hand, consumer confidence survey data is relatively mild, with expectations slightly weakened and inflation expectations also easing; however, despite the friendly data and another round of selling in the stock market, the US bond market cannot maintain buying momentum, and the yield curve rose 5-7 basis points that day. Similar to the stock market, the chart pattern of fixed income also looks negative. The 10-year yield has broken through the trend channel from the beginning of the year to the present, and is only one step away from the local high point of 4.25%, which will be the next obvious trend target.

Commodity prices have risen, with oil prices remaining above $80. The scale of US bond issuance has increased, and with the financial situation still at the same loose level as when overnight interest rates tightened (now at 5.3% vs about 3.80%), even as the market increasingly believes that the Fed has basically ended this round of rate hikes, the bearish narrative for bonds is still forming as we enter the Jackson Hole meeting at the end of the month, and the sharp bearish trend in the yield curve over the past week continues to put pressure on the stock market, with tech stocks particularly affected, with Nvidia falling 15% since the beginning of the month.

This week will see the release of US retail sales data and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, along with China's MLF rate decision and more data on China's real economy (industrial added value, retail sales, new home prices). Last week, China's data still performed poorly, with new loans at their lowest level since 2009 and social financing falling to 528 billion yuan, well below the expected 1.1 trillion yuan. Market sentiment remains low, with A-shares giving back about 50% of their gains after the Politburo meeting, and investors continue to (nervously) wait for signs of loosening policies from the People's Bank of China.

Returning to the topic of US financial reports, this week will see a series of consumer-facing companies release their financial results, including Walmart, Target, and Home Depot. American consumers have continued to demonstrate remarkable resilience, with Q2 profits only falling 4% YoY, significantly better than the predicted 9% decline by investment banks, especially in the non-essential consumer goods industry, which has outperformed expectations. In addition, the market generally expects Q2 profits to be the trough of the current economic slowdown cycle, with EPS growth expected to return to positive values before the end of the year.

From the perspective of position, Morgan Stanley's report states that the options net gamma position of traders has turned negative for the first time in months, which also explains some of the more dramatic fluctuations in the stock market last week. In addition, due to the large number of long positions in stocks held by systematic funds, the market is still susceptible to position-driven selling in the short term, and we still recommend adopting more defensive strategies at this time.

In the field of cryptocurrency, the SEC has, as expected, postponed the decision on the first batch of BTC spot ETF applications. They will solicit public opinions on Cathie Wood's Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, which will delay the approval time by a few weeks. After starting the review, the SEC has a total of 240 days to make a decision on the application, and the first deadline for the next batch of ETF applications is September 2.

Meanwhile, as prices remain in a sideways trend, CME's ETH open interest has dropped to a one-year low, and the actual volatility of mainstream currencies continues to decline significantly. However, the open interest of BTC call options continues to significantly exceed that of put options, and remaining participants remain optimistic in the long run.