Week 25 on-chain data: Increased volatility in transaction activity, with a slight uptick in positive signals.
Original Title: "Brilliant Sky, Comfortable Clouds and Streams | WTR 6.26"
Original Source: WatchToweR Research Institute
This Week Review
From June 19th to June 26th this week, the highest point of Bingtang Orange was around $31431, and the lowest was close to $26256, with a fluctuation range of about 18%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large volume of chips traded around 30,000, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
26000-31000 approximately 3.36 million pieces;
20000~25000 is approximately 1.21 million coins.
Probability of not breaking below 24000~26000 in the short term is 65%.
The probability of not breaking through 32000-34000 in the short term is 60%.
Important News
Economic News
1. Token issuers in Japan are exempt from 30% cryptocurrency tax:
Token issuers in Japan are exempt from a 30% cryptocurrency tax on paper profits, which could have an impact on Japan's cryptocurrency market.
2. The Chinese economic crisis may affect Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
Analysts are studying how the potential economic crisis in China may affect Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, which could have an impact on the global crypto market.
3. Increased adoption of cryptocurrency in Cyprus:
Bybit has obtained approval for a license from Cyprus, which will help to increase the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the country.
4. The token mapping in Australia will be "technology-neutral".
An official from the Australian Treasury Department stated that the country's token mapping will be "technology-neutral," which may have an impact on Australia's cryptocurrency policies.
5. There has been an internal political dispute in Russia.
Encryption Ecology News
1. zkSync has released a new 'Hyperchains' network: zkSync plans to release a new 'Hyperchains' network by the end of this year, which may have an impact on the performance and security of the cryptocurrency network.
2. HSBC launches cryptocurrency services in Hong Kong: HSBC Bank has launched cryptocurrency services in Hong Kong, marking further acceptance of cryptocurrencies by traditional financial institutions.
3. Binance regards the United Arab Emirates as the "focus" of its future operations: Binance plans to make the United Arab Emirates the "focus" of its future operations, which may have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market in the United Arab Emirates.
4. Binance decides not to delist privacy coins in Europe: Binance has revoked its decision to delist privacy coins in Europe, which may have an impact on the cryptocurrency market in Europe.
5. 363 entities including Nasdaq, Ripple Labs, Galaxy Digital, BlackRock (贝莱德), and Tribe Capital are interested in the FTX 2.0 relaunch.
6. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: As an asset class, cryptocurrency seems to have staying power.
7. Companies such as Charles Schwab, Citadel Securities, Fidelity Investments, Sequoia Capital, and Paradigm have announced their joint launch of EDX Markets and have completed financing.
Overall, the market is facing a test at this stage;
From a medium to long-term perspective, the selling pressure caused by this obstacle is similar to the potential total profit and the first-time breakthrough of around $30,000 this year.
It can also be seen as a not-so-bad news, because as the price continues to hover and rise, its selling pressure has not increased significantly.
Mid-term exploration
Within the year, the ratio of profit and loss has been achieved.
Network Emotion Positivity - High Precision Testing
New power.(Profit and loss ratio achieved within the year as shown in the figure below)
This model observes the profit and loss structure of long cycles. From the graph, it can be seen that:
1. There is a certain degree of loss limit in the market, that is, the loss threshold. It can be inferred from the order of magnitude that the number of loss chips available for sale in the market is limited.
2. In the market, when breaking away from the state of selling off due to losses or when the state of loss chips is exhausted, the market may gradually converge, and then the bottom can be observed.
3. Currently, the market has moved out of the state of selling at a loss. From the above statistics, the number of chips available for sale is constantly shrinking. Combined with the chip chart mentioned in the "Weekly Review", it can be accurately observed that the number of chips available for sale at a loss in the market is continuously decreasing. At present, the market is also in a "profitable state", and this may lead to consideration of the market's ability to take on profitable chips.
4. The model can observe the fuzzy bottom, that is, when the slope of the purple year's profit and loss ratio line that has been realized drops slowly, a certain degree of left-side strategy can be unfolded. Of course, because WTR stands at a macroscopic perspective on the chain and overlooks the market, it is in a relatively rational perspective, and more detailed situations have not been unfolded. The results reflected by the above data are for reference only.
The perspective narrows to the middle term.
(Positive online sentiment as shown in the following image)
The positivity of online emotions indicates that the emotions of participants have declined somewhat at this stage, and it may still take some time to wait for repair in the future.
The current focus may be on the unstable market conditions, and participants are being influenced by short-term market sentiment.
However, there has not been a strong reversal trend yet, and we still need to focus on observation in the future.
(Exchange Deposit Ratio as shown in the figure below)
From the current situation, the deposit ratio within the exchange is relatively low, below 49%. It is possible that the current deposit situation does not yet constitute a selling pressure, and the current problem may still be a slightly insufficient momentum.
(New Force in the Picture below)
After a strong performance, the new forces in the encryption industry are currently experiencing a slight downturn. It is possible that the market has returned to a situation where the strength has slightly weakened.
At the critical point where the stock balance is not disrupted, it may present itself in a biased and oscillating form at present.
Short-term Observation
The content you provided is:
Derivative risk coefficient."期权意向成交比" translates to "Option Intention-to-Transaction Ratio".The content you provided is:
Derivatives trading volume.Options Implied Volatility
The transfer amount of profit and loss
New address and active address
The net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange.The net position of Auntie Tai Exchange.High weight throw pressure.Off-chain exchange data.
(Derivative Risk Coefficient as shown in the figure below)
The current risk coefficient is in the neutral zone, with moderate risk.
If the risk factor continues to swing upwards, it may increase the pressure on the long position.
(The option intention transaction ratio in the figure below)
With the rise in prices, the trading volume of options has decreased, and the current put protection ratio remains at a relatively high level.
(Derivative trading volume in the following figure)
With the rise in prices, the trading volume of derivatives has also rapidly increased.
The current trading volume of derivatives has fallen to a low level, indicating that after the price has risen to the current stage, derivative traders are more inclined to wait and see.
(The implied volatility of options in the figure below)
During the price increase, the implied volatility of options experienced significant fluctuations. As the price stabilized, the volatility also returned to a calm state.
The current options traders are also more inclined to wait and see.
represents the profit transfer amount with a certain positive sentiment, which increases as the price rises, while the loss transfer amount decreases accordingly.
The current loss transfer amount has dropped to a low level, while the profit transfer amount is still decreasing. If the loss transfer amount remains stable, it will be a positive signal for the future market.
(新增地址和活跃地址)
The price increase this time did not result in a significant increase in new or active addresses. Overall, the market is at a relatively high level, and the overall activity and investor participation in the current market are good.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, there is a large outflow state, and selling pressure has decreased..
(Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange as shown in the following figure)
The net position of Da Bing Exchange has shown a significant outflow. This indicates that the selling pressure in the market is not high at present.
(Net position of E-Tower Exchange shown in Figure E below)
Ethereum Exchange's net position is showing a cumulative outflow state.
(High Weight Throw Pressure in the figure below)
There is currently no high-weight selling pressure.
Purchasing Power Rating: Global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power has also increased slightly.
(Global purchasing power status)
The current purchasing power in the Americas remains dominant, while Europe has seen a greater recovery in purchasing power and the loss of purchasing power in Asia has slowed down.
(Net position of USDC exchange shown below)
USDC net positions on exchanges show a slight inflow.
(Net Position of USDT Exchange as shown in the figure below)
USDT exchange net position shows a moderate inflow state.
Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 26,000; willing to sell at 33,000.
(下图 Coinbase 链下数据)
Translation:
(The following image shows Coinbase off-chain data)
25000, 28000 have a willingness to purchase at nearby prices.
33000, 35000 have selling intentions at nearby prices.
(下图 Binance 链下数据)
Translation:
(The following image shows Binance off-chain data)
26000, 27000, 28000, and 29000 have purchasing intentions at nearby prices.
(Bitfinex off-chain data below)
This Week's Summary
Summary of News:
With the global economic recession, edge politics and ideological conflicts have begun to be amplified and become more sensitive.
Recently, the issues in Russia will cause significant disruptions to the energy, trade, and supply chain in Central Asia and even Asia as a whole.
Among them, Russia occupies important energy resources such as natural gas, oil, and coal, while on the other hand, it has crops such as grains, potatoes, and flax.
Nothing is stable, including the things we take for granted.
Political instability can lead to continuous relocation of businesses and industries in India.
Stable, with a large population of low-cost labor and many regions with a high concentration of intelligent individuals.
摩擦成本，生产成本决定资本的流向。
Friction costs and production costs determine the flow of capital.
The industry in Southeast Asia will gradually rise and develop, and in the future, AR glasses, coupled with real-time AI assistance, will not need to be translated.
Another aspect is imagination. Currently, India is equivalent to China in the 70s and 80s, where everything that was established in developed countries can be replicated.
Of course, the integration of the industry chain still needs to be established, but in terms of narrative imagination, it is the most attractive.
For ordinary people, there are many opportunities in the long term, even starting with something as simple as the SENSEX index in Mumbai, India for financial investment.
If you are smart enough, you may have the opportunity to explore India's technology unicorns that could grow dozens of times in the future.
The future era belongs to those who are better at insight and imagination.
On-chain Long-term Insights:
1. The proportion of potential profits in the market is increasing, and it is similar to the proportion of potential profits in the phenomenon of breaking through the price of around 30,000 for the first time this year, but it is not as high as when it was at 31,000.
2. The overall selling pressure of spot goods is moderate, similar to the first breakthrough of 30,000 earlier this year.
3. In the medium to long term, the market is facing a test; however, the accumulated profits and selling pressure have not increased at a higher rate compared to before, which is a good thing.
Market tone: Strategy recommendation: It is advisable to adopt a fixed investment strategy when selling pressure is absorbed.
On-chain Mid-term Exploration:
1. Under the long-term cycle, the gradual reduction of loss sales weakens, and the market faces the test of profit-taking ability.
2. The liquidity has slightly weakened and currently requires some time for repair.
3. The absence of selling pressure in the deposit ratio may indicate a lack of strong selling behavior in the market.
4. The new forces are slightly slowing down, and may currently be in a state of observation.
The market is set: wait and see, with weakened momentum.
The market momentum has slightly weakened, and under the current conditions of new entrants observing, the atmosphere of observation may be more prominent. The problem to be dealt with now is the transition of the state after the lack of upward momentum.
On-chain short-term observation:
1. The risk factor is in the neutral zone, and the risk is moderate.
2. The newly added active addresses are at a relatively high level, indicating a good market activity.
3. Market sentiment rating: Neutral.
4. The overall net position of the exchange shows a large outflow, and selling pressure has decreased.
5. The global purchasing power has rebounded slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has also seen a slight increase.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows a willingness to buy at the 26,000 price level and a willingness to sell at the 33,000 price level.
7. The probability of not breaking below 24,000 to 26,000 in the short term is 65%.
8. The probability of not breaking through 32,000-34,000 in the short term is 60%.
Market tone: Trading activity has increased, volatility has strengthened, and overall positive signals have slightly increased. In the short term, the upward momentum may decrease.
Strategy recommendation: Hedge at the appropriate time.
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