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SignalPlus Macro Research Report: Cryptocurrency trading volume declines, while stock spot and options trading volume increases.

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With the SEC's increased crackdown, cryptocurrency trading volume plummeted by 43% compared to the previous period, while stock spot and options trading volume grew by nearly 30%.

Original Title: "SignalPlus Macro Research Report (20230613)"

Original Source: SignalPlus Chinese

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Deribit's end-of-month delivery options, BTC's biggest pain point is 24000, but the curve below is relatively flat, and the intrinsic value of 25500 is similar to 24000. ETH's biggest pain point is 1700. Looking at the option data, this month's spot price is just like this.

The stock market is still thriving, and stocks favored by retail investors are once again leading the way before entering this week's CPI/FOMC. Slowing inflation, relatively cooperative Fed, and continued economic growth driven by strong US consumers all contribute to the perfect execution of the software copyright scene. There seems to be nothing to worry about in the stock market, as the bear market has already entered hibernation along with cryptocurrencies.

Investors' enthusiasm is everywhere, and consumer-centric industries such as cruise tourism have easily outperformed the index this year. In addition, the AAII sentiment index has risen to its most optimistic level since 2021. It is difficult to resist this trend unless inflation data soars or the Fed unexpectedly takes a hawkish stance this Wednesday.

The performance of professional managers this year has been relatively poor, with traditional "value" strategies and cyclic and defensive stocks that are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions performing significantly lower than pure growth and momentum strategies. Considering concerns about regional banks, disappointing Chinese data, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and market losses in real estate and other interest-sensitive assets, the current surge in risk sentiment is indeed surprising, but the market always tends to move in the direction that brings the greatest pain to most participants.

When it comes to the release of CPI data, the market's excitement has decreased compared to the previous months. This may be because the risk market has already made a decision on their risk preferences, and the previously lower-than-expected European inflation data has also lowered market expectations. The market expects core CPI to increase by 0.4% per month, with the direction of the index mainly determined by the prices of second-hand cars, hotels and entertainment (entering the peak travel season), and housing inflation. The trajectory of rental prices will be the most interesting item, which can confirm whether the trend of slowing housing prices in March and April is true, which contradicts the rebound in housing prices.

In terms of digital assets, as more and more platforms operating in the United States restrict access for US users, the settlement of cryptocurrencies continues. In addition, Robinhood's operational statistics show that with the SEC's increased crackdown, the volume of cryptocurrency transactions has plummeted by 43% compared to the previous period, while the volume of stock spot and options trading has increased by nearly 30% during the same period. At the same time, with the overall activity and stablecoin quantity continuing to decline, on-chain analysis data has also shown negative results. Considering the bleak outlook, it is quite incredible and inspiring that BTC and ETH can still maintain their prices in this context. We hope everyone will continue to pay attention to safety!

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