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Multicoin Capital: I don't think ChatGPT poses a real threat to Google

Multicoin Capital

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So far, claims that these models will topple Google have been exaggerated.

Original article by KyleSamani, Multicoin Capital

Yvonne, MarsBit

Note: This is a tweet from KyleSamani, a Multicoin Capital co-creator, explaining his thoughts on ChatGPT as a threat to Google:

Here are some of my personal thoughts on ChatGPT. Please correct me if you are wrong.

Simply put, I think ChatGPT is cool, but not really a threat to Google.

ChatGPT has three amazing designs:

1) It can give correct answers to seemingly complex questions based on the complexity of its AI

2) It can speak correctly according to the context

3) It can support 100GB files

I'll start with the third point. It was the most incredible... You can run the entire ChatGPT on your phone!

You can't run Google Search on your local device.

I'm not sure how to compress an Internet data set. Maybe they'll delete a lot of duplicate data?

Now let's revisit the first point. That seems impressive, doesn't it? Google has been doing something similar for years, using a single-box answer feature at the top of search results.

Is ChatGPT better at answering certain categories of questions? Based on anecdotal screenshots on Twitter, it seems so, but I'm reluctant to offer a personal opinion here without further insight.

Obviously, Google has a huge team working on LLM, which is probably on par with OpenAI. Is it possible for Open AI to have a real technological advantage? Yes, it's possible, but I rather doubt it. But there is no obvious reason for this.

But I think more importantly, it's like comparing apples to oranges. The Google search box deals with a larger space of unlimited information. Most obviously, it includes images, videos, maps, etc.

By reducing the amount of work and combining less data, ChatGPT Narrows the range of questions it can answer, which makes it look better than Google in some specific cases.

Now let's talk about number two... About the conversation:

i/ I think Google already does this (see Google IO demo a few years ago, when Google Assistant called restaurants to make reservations for users);

ii/ You don't see chat conversations on Google because of UI-limited functionality.

i think point I is pretty clear. Google has clearly invested a lot of time in the conversation system and has made the interface public in a handful of products...... Usually, the point of searching a UI is to answer a question, not to provide a conversation.

Perhaps Google could iterate on its search user interface to support more conversational features. I suspect they already have all the technology to make this happen, though.

I'm still interested in LLM in general, but I think the claims that these models will disrupt Google have been overblown so far. But again, I'm not an expert on the subject, and would love to hear the objections of those who have studied it.