Uniswap V3 LP turnaround turnaround

原文标题：《 UniV3 的 LP 在持续亏损中苦苦挣扎，CeFi 到 DeFi 的迁移是否会成为 LP 扭亏为盈的救命稻草？ 》

Original source: Blockin.ai

The Odaily Planet

Recently, Alex posted a post on Twitter about LP's Uniswap  V3  ETH/USDC lost about $100 million in the discovery of Uniswap  V3 data services and policy research questioned. (The Odaily Planet also compiled itThis article).bThe lockin.ai teamHas been committed to research on the profit and loss of LPs and POOLs in UniswapV3. This time, we will conduct further research on the profit status of UniV3 coin pool, hoping to provide effective data proof on whether UniV3 LP is continuously losing money.

In order to understand the impact of different coin pair types on pool returns, we summarized all position information of 709 coin pools with more than 52 ETH TVL and more than 5 swap events from their creation to October 26, 2022. The hourly rate of return of the pool can be obtained by calculating the hourly fees, free losses, net worth and gas earned by the position, and the annual rate of return and net annual rate of return of the whole mining coin pool can be accumulated since its establishment and in the last 6 months.

In order to distinguish the types of coin pools (dual stablecoin pool, single stablecoin pool and dual stablecoin pool), DAI, USDC, USDT and TUSD are regarded as stablecoin with high recognition, and other coins are regarded as stablecoin, and the coin pools are classified.

From the perspective of profit and loss distribution of different coin pair types, 86.27% single stablecoin pool and 79.15% dual stablecoin pool have been less than 0 since their establishment, and the median net annualized returns are -52.64% and 63.08%, respectively. In the past six months, the net annualized return of Bistablecoin has even reached -67.56%.This shows that from a long time, most of the single stablecoin pools and dual stablecoin pools are losing money; Although the mining income of the bistable coin pool is very low, the overall rate of return of 70% of the bistable coin pool is positive, and the profit of the bistable coin pool in the recent six months reaches 90%, although the net annual rate of return is less than 10%.

By ranking the coin pools, it is found that among the top 20 big pools in TVL, there are 14 pools with negative net return rate in the past six months, among which 12 pools have a net return rate lower than -50%, while only 4 large coin pools have a positive net return rate since the establishment of positions, and the highest is less than 10%, and another 9 pools have a net return rate lower than -50%.

On USDC - WETH  Taking 0.3% pool as an example, the one-day line chart and cumulative line chart of fees, free losses and net losses of all positions and recognized profit and loss positions from the establishment of the pool to October 26, 2022 are drawn. It is found that fees cannot cover free losses in many cases. As a result, cumulative net profit and loss has reached - $112.8 million. However, there were periods of increased net profit and loss, such as the cumulative pnl from -81.96 million to $42.17 million between mid-June 25, 2021 and December 1, 2021; Between June 18, 2022 and October 26, 2022, cumulative pnl increased from -$185.3 million to -$114.3 million.    

According to the statistics of 84,129 LPS with mining records in Uniswap-V3, 58925 LPS were in the state of loss, with a loss ratio of 70.04%. In addition, 43.64%LP had a net annualized return rate less than -100% during mining. Only 11.85%LP had a net annualized rate of return greater than 100% during the mining period (average mining duration 35.26 days).    

Some people think that large fund institutions with professional teams may be able to withstand this loss state. In real time, we found that only 5 of the top 20 LP addresses with the largest total net worth of positions in Uniswap-V3 are profitable at present, and after estimating the net annualized return per unit net worth, Only 2 of the big players have a positive net return, and only one of them has a LPnetapr of 2730.19% (the LP was actually mined for only 10 hours on November 10, 2022). The other LP has a netapr of 12.11% (this LP has actually been mined since June 16, 2022).    

  What is it that underpins the willingness of these LPS to mine Uniswap-V3 despite continuing losses?    

We looked at the USDC-DC-DC-D. 0.3% of the net value of the current position of the largest mining behavior of LP (LP address: 0 x741aa7cfb2c7bf2a1e7d4da2e3df6a56ca4131f3), the LP on May 26, 2021 for the first time into the USDC - WETH  Since 0.3% coin pool mining, we have continued to adjust our positions, and have constantly adjusted the width of the interval, the frequency of adjustment and other strategies. However, from his profit and loss curve, except for a few periods of time when pnl tilted upward, most of the time the loss has been expanding.It is therefore reasonable to suspect that such large investors may have hedged in other protocols to cover their losses in V3, or that V3 is used as an option hedging tool for other coin strategies.

We also looked at the USDC-WETH  The ranking of LP with the highest historical return pnl among 0.3% is based on the selection of two large LP producers with mining activities in the recent month. It is found that they have the same characteristics. They entered from June 2022, set an ultra-wide upper and lower limit range, and adjust positions or not adjust positions at a very low frequency. From the perspective of risk indicators, sharpe values of both of them are higher than 2, with maximum retracement rates of 19.09% and 9.54%, and daily profit and loss ratio of 94.20% and 103.03%, respectively.

The difference between the two LP strategies is that the lower interval of LP1 is relatively narrow, about 1000 USDC/WETH, so the risk exposure of USDC standard reaches 90.51%, and the downside risk is 290.47. The lower interval of LP2 is set at approximately 552 USDC/WETH, so the exposure on the USDC standard is 46.57% and the downside is 122.48.

It is not difficult to find that the main reason for the profitability of these two LPS is that the price has been relatively stable since June 2022 and has not fallen sharply. Even when the currency price fluctuates, the price is between the upper and lower limits, and the free loss has not been recognized.

LP address respectively: 0 xdc848a72842d943b87926ae27ee05f1e949ec931, 0 xc84def0f58df9f25f1099ed477da7b27ac422ade.

Uniswap  There are various profit models of V3. Not all LPS calculate profit and loss with U-standard, and some LP also take the increase of the number of a certain currency as the profit target. Therefore, we have calculated the cumulative profit and loss of each coin pool with token0 and token1 as the standard currency.

Surprisingly, from the performance of the top 20 coin pools in TVL, it is found that 13 coin pools are in the state of loss regardless of the token0 standard or token1 standard, except UNI-WETH  With the exception of 0.3%, the remaining coin pool associated with WETH are both free losses and simultaneous losses of two currency standards.In the conventional wisdom, an increase in the free loss of one currency standard means a decrease in the free loss of the other currency standard. When both sides lose money at the same time, it is difficult to guess who the actual profit object is, after all, the users of exchange transactions also think that they suffer losses due to the slippery point.

In recent days, the credibility of centralised exchanges has been called into question by the run on FTX. This has led to a sharp increase in trading volumes on decentralised exchanges over the past month, with unispQ ( V3 trading volume increased by 898%. In the case that TVL remains unchanged, higher transaction volume means that fees will increase, which brings hope to LP among them, USDC-WETH  Take 0.3% coin pool as an example, the current average daily transaction volume of this coin pool is $116.4 million, and the average daily transaction volume reaches more than $186.7 million, that is, when TVL stabilizes at the current level and the transaction volume reaches more than 1.6 times of the current level, fees will cover the unpaid loss, and most LP will be able to realize profit.

As a signature agreement of AMM, unisW  V3 volume accounts for more than 50% of Ethereum DEX volume, and if users reinforce their belief in decentralized exchanges during this event, it will be unisw&NBsp; V3 in LP turnaround turnaround.

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