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Why should we pay attention to the 200 million IMX unlock event?

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The Token unlocking scale exceeds the market value, what happened to Immutable?

Original author: encryption researcher @0x_Umeshu

Original compilation: 0x214, BlockBeats

BlockBeats news, total About 12.74% of the supply of IMX will be unlocked on November 5, of which 6.73% belongs to the project team and 6.01% is private equity. The huge unlocking event of more than 200 million IMXs has caused market discussions. In this regard, encryption researcher 0x_Umeshu issued a post saying that the situation is not optimistic, and explained the specific reasons. BlockBeats compiled and translated it as follows.

There are too many traders who have unlocked short Token, you may not choose to join this game crowded war. But when the unlocking scale of Token exceeds its market value, will you still choose to ignore this matter?

About total supply 12.74% of IMX will be unlocked on November 5, of which 6.73% belongs to the project team and 6.01% is private equity.

The scale of this unlocking accounted for about 13% of the total supply, such a terrible Token inflation Not often.

Immutable has not yet disclosed the specific number of unlocked Tokens, but according to various sources, the number "251 million" should not be much different from the actual situation. However, the circulating supply of IMX is only 235 million.

If denominated in US dollars, this unlock How big is it?

If we use IMX September 27, 2022 price: $0.74 to calculate, unlock The scale is about 186 million US dollars, which is 1.1 times the current market value of IMX.

How do you feel now? empty it?

Since Immutable is expected to undergo a large-scale linear unlock every 28 days in the next few years, selling pressure will still exist after the November unlock event.

Even if we only look at private equity tokens, VCs and angel investors may Sell $6 million in thinly traded spot markets.

Just imagine, if you are a VC, the price you buy Token is 0.025-0.05 US dollars, and now it has doubled by 15-30 times. Do you want to eject and sell these Tokens the next second you receive the transfer, or are you going to go through this bear market all the way?

What about the veteran investors (smart money) who have been hunting bottoms in the market? According to Nansen data, IMX has fallen out of favor, I guess even if they are bullish on NFT, they would rather accumulate some XMON< /a> to get the next SUDO lockup airdrop.

However, Immutable is one of the top Layer2 built for NFT after all, and its base layer should be quite reliable.

Unless you’re a Web3 caveman, you’re not unaware that NFT trading volume has dropped 90%. However, low transaction volume also means low transaction fees, see cryptoslamio and l2beat.

From this point of view, IMX’s Token economics is terrible, and the fundamentals are inseparable from the NFT bear market. Doesn’t the IMX team take immediate action to prevent people from A large number of token sales? The development team, go to work quickly! Then introduce staking.

Staking, the only antidote to all crypto problems.

Sure enough, IMX staking went live on September 2nd, exactly 2 months before the November unlocking took place. I'm not going to go into the specifics of the staking project here, but if this is really what the development team launched to prevent scams, the timing couldn't be better.

IMX It's not the first project to do this. Is it really a coincidence that APE plans to launch the staking project at the same time as the investor Token is unlocked? Crypto KOL Cobie wrote a excellent article about staking, and you can too have a look.

If you look at the transaction from the picture below, it looks really bad. IMX volume has dropped 92% since its ATH high. It is estimated that the spot selling will not stop until it is unlocked in November.

Overall, I think IMX holders and traders should pay attention to this unlock event because of its sheer size.

If you want to arbitrage from unlocking, please remember to do a good job of researching DYOR, because in the bear market, There are too many people who want to short high FDV Token.

BlockBeats Note: Fully diluted valuation means that all Tokens are in circulation The total market value of the agreement.

By the way, there are also people who believe that the unlock date is in October, the IMX team has confirmed Unlocked on November 5th, which happens to be the one-year anniversary of its launch on Huobi.