A detailed review of the evolving technology trends of the five blockchain tracks
Original title: "Thousands of Words——In My Eyes, the Evolving Technology Trends of Blockchain Tracks"
Original Author: Lao Bai
Talk about what is happening in various sectors recently, and the trends that may appear in the next 6-12 months
1. First Talking about the public chain
The new trend of the public chain is mainly in the three categories of ETH+L2, Move+Diem gang, and modularity
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1.ETH+L2
ETH, the order of the next few months to years is like this
< p>· Merge (estimated September-December)
· EIP4488 (expected at the end of the year or early next year) - reduce the cost of CallData and reduce the cost of L2 by several times
· EIP4844 - Proto-Danksharding (next year) - introduce a new transaction type Blob, replace CallData, and further reduce the cost of Rollup
< b>· Danksharding - (2-4 years later) - equivalent to Proto-Danksharding+sharding
ETH is good for everything All slow. .
2.L2
OP Department
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Arb - well aware of the current pain points of L2, that is - it is still not cheap enough, not fast enough (compared to Alt L1 such as Solana or side chains such as Polygon ), so while preparing for Nitro’s mainnet (using the WASM architecture to greatly improve performance and reduce costs), while launching Nova (a sidechain based on AnyTrust, but with Rollup as a backup, it is much safer than ordinary sidechains)
Op - Coin issuance is the biggest highlight, and the recently released BedRock architecture makes future multi-client possible- not only supporting OP's client, but also Support ZK yo
Fuel - I used a new language of Sway to make a Swayswap. In the testnet demo, the speed is extremely fast. I don’t know after the mainnet is launched. Is it possible to maintain this speed. It is worth mentioning that Fuel uses the UTXO model. It is well known that UTXO has a performance advantage in concurrent processing compared to the Account model, but because there is no shared state, it is not suitable for complex contract design. Fuel uses UTXO ID + strict state access list ( Strict Access List) technology to solve this problem
ZK Department
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ZK-Sync - Announced that it will be launched on the mainnet within 100 days. It is worth noting that many DAPPs on Zk-Sync are native, not some of the current Dapps transplanted to the past
Polygon - announced ZK-EVM
Starkware - also announced the expectation of issuing coins, the most anticipated thing about Starkware is recursion Rollup can be subdivided into L3 or even L4 to achieve higher TPS and lower costs.
Scroll - just released Pre-Alpha, known as the most EVM compatible ZK-Rollup
Aztec - Made an Aztec Connect (privacy as a service), and finally got the privacy I want to see, that is, the existing ETH L1 Dapp can access Aztec through the bridge contract and SDK, so as to obtain privacy protection. There is no decentralization of liquidity and no need for redeployment.
Although the current implementation is very simple, not all types of Dapp can be accessed, and it also depends on the team's public relations cooperation ability, but this is at least in my mind Privacy as it should be. I never think that we need any privacy coins, nor do we need a separate privacy public chain, what we need is a privacy plug-in!
Finally, two points about ZK and concurrent processing
I just saw the Twi sent by Mr. Mindao, a large number of ZK systems will be launched in the next few months, and then? It must be the DeFi three-axes again, dex, lending, Stablecoin... The public chain currency + various DEX and lending projects are estimated to be dozens of new tokens for everyone to take over, and what is even more terrible is the further fragmentation of liquidity. There is no solution yet for splitting.
The DAMM that LRC cooperates with Starkware may be a solution, but firstly this thing can only integrate the liquidity of ZK series Rollup and ETH L1 ; Second, no one knows when it will be launched; third, the complexity of this solution is very high. Originally, MEV on a single chain was a problem. Now that the integration of multiple chains has increased the asynchrony, MEV, impermanence loss and other things will change It's more complicated, I'm a big head anyway...
About parallel processing - this is somewhat related to the Move and Diem gang that will be mentioned later.
A bottleneck limitation of EVM on performance is that even the highest TPS is serial. For example, A sends different Tokens to B and C at the same time, which can be processed in parallel on Solana (of course, different objects of the same Token cannot be parallelized), and EVM can only be serialized here, no matter L1 or L2, as long as it is EVM
This is a natural defect of the EVM, and if you want to overcome it, you can only redesign a VM. Arb, Op, Zk-sync, and Starkware still inherit the problem of EVM. So the theoretically strongest Rollup may be a Zk-Rollup that is similar to the Solana architecture and then hung on ETH? (It not only overcomes Solana's security and stability problems, but also has Solana's TPS and parallel processing)
The only L2 that explores parallel processing is Fuel mentioned above, although Aztec is also a UTXO model, but I feel that its UTXO design is mainly for privacy considerations, not parallel processing and TPS
3.Move& ;Diem Gang + Modularity
I thought that the launch of ICP has closed the door to the public chain. After all, it takes a few years for a public chain to develop from development to ecological prosperity , the current time window is not enough, but under the magic of capital, this is not a problem...
Recently there is a new article about the top ten public chains The new L1 is relatively popular, and more than 10 new L1 will come out in the next year, plus 10 new L2, dozens of L1+L2, this liquidity is split... Anyway, the new public chain is the hottest The two are Move language + Diem team gangsters, Aptos + Sui
The two are basically the same, both are from the original Diem team, and both are new Move The language (Sui has been modified, but the core is still Move), both claim to be 100,000 TPS+, with A16Z and Coinbase Ventures behind them, both with a valuation of 2 billion, and they all focus on parallel processing... The difference is that Aptos has a fast State synchronization and account recovery technology, Sui uses Object instead of Account as the basic unit, and then introduces payment for state storage
How to say, no innovation It is fake, but the degree of innovation is far inferior to that of Solana (Solana is prone to downtime, but people agree that the communication mechanism is indeed a relatively unique innovation, and it has basically achieved the ultimate single-chip chain on TPS). The valuation is 2 billion, and it feels more "capital chain" than Solana. I don't know how much money there is in the secondary market.
Actually, there are still Diem out A Linera, but it doesn’t use the Rust used by Move. It feels like a state-owned enterprise has closed down. Everyone pulls a device and does it alone... But no matter what, you can’t ignore them, especially Aptos, which is now in various places. Under the rendering of the media, there is a sense of sight for the next round of bull market Solana. While paying attention to technology, you also have to speculate in coins to make money, right?
Then modular , basically Celestia is popular. In fact, Polkadot and Ethereum 2.0 can be regarded as modular, but Celestia split the two-layer structure into three layers. This "modular" Feel is much more obvious, and because there are A single DA layer can be used to play a lot of tricks, such as several sets of paradigms combined with different execution layers + different settlement layers, the most important of which is Sovereign (sovereignty) Rollup
< p>According to Celestia, the Layer 0 of the last chain is actually Social Consensus, that is, social consensus. Although the Rollup of Ethereum is safe, it is actually an extension chain of ETH, which loses its sovereignty , more like a US state. If you want to build a country by yourself, you can adjust it flexibly and fork at any time, but you still have to have your own sovereignty. The first sovereign Rollup should be Celo
As for which Rollup, which focuses on sovereignty and ETH, will win or coexist for a long time, it is too difficult to judge now, and it will take 2 years for the market to tell us the answer.
In addition to Celestia, Cosmos also has a Dymension team developing RDK, Rollups Development Kit - Rollup development kit, of course, based on the Cosmos SDK and ecology, There is a bit of Polygon Edge feel. In addition to the recently launched CosmWasm virtual machine, in short, Cosmos is definitely at the forefront of modularity now.
Polkadot, finally launched XCM and governance V2 is worthy of attention, but the popularity and price of parachain auctions are low enough at present. It feels that unless there is a popular chain or application, it will be difficult to capture the attention of the current market
As for the one-click chain, there are more and more players, except for Cosmos and Polkadot, who joined Avax some time ago (the command line is the fastest to send a chain in 42S, scary...), and now With BAS (BSC side chain) and Polygon Supernet, the infrastructure for issuing chains in the market has far exceeded the needs of issuing chains, and there has been a sense of sight in the beginning of 19 years that there are more trading platforms than users...
< p>Two. Defi
1.Dex
Originally, you earned the handling fee. If there is no impermanence, wouldn’t it mean that you just eat meat and don’t get beaten?
How can there be such a good thing?
Many LPs who want to eat meat but don’t want to be beaten are uploaded on Bancor this time. It is said that many LPs still cannot withdraw money. Now I don’t know how
Uniswap has become a real infrastructure
In addition to long-tail assets, mainstream currency LPs have basically gone to V3, and there are no more V2 trading pairs. More importantly, we have seen more projects using V3 as infrastructure. These are not the previous Use Uniswap's LP to do a "simple" composability of liquidity mining, but use V3 to realize more complex functional projects
For example, Perp V2, such as Rage Trade, all use V3 to achieve leverage. More complex derivative transactions such as contracts also give LPs more diverse choices (you can choose greater returns, but of course you also have to take greater risks. )
This is a bit similar to the path of Web2. The earliest applications were based on the OS of Windows. After the emergence of super applications such as Wechat and Chrome, many Apps start to be based on these super application platforms, such as various WeChat applets, Chrome plug-ins, etc.
You will also see similar scenarios in the next loan
2. Borrowing
The asset isolation pool has become a standard configuration, and the Euler that went online some time ago , AAVE V3 has introduced this concept to avoid a bad asset or a damaged pool from causing the entire platform to be deployed in one nest.
Multi-chain deployment-representative is AAVE V3 The portal and the multi-chain protocol code released by Compound V3, the full-chain Dex currently sees many difficulties, and the whole-chain lending may be much easier
Morpho Labs - This is a peer-to-peer loan matching agreement based on Compound and AAVE. It has launched another peer-to-peer lending platform on the two major peer-to-pool lending platforms. However, qualified users have better interest rates and higher capital utilization efficiency. This is the above The mentioned scenario of doing derivatives projects based on Uniswap is similar
As for the two aspects of license-free and credit loans, to be honest, it is not optimistic at the moment, and the current stage of license-free It’s meaningless, because 99% of Tokens are not qualified to serve as collateral for loans. As for credit loans... let’s talk about when the DID system is developed and mature. It can even be pessimistic that credit loans based on the blockchain may be fake. Proposition
3. Derivatives
There is still no “Uniswap” for on-chain derivatives At this moment, except that DYDX is relying on mining to support liquidity and GMX is relying on innovative trading volume, the derivatives in the DeFi circle are basically still being crushed by Cex
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The following four trends can be followed:
1. DYDXV4 - a Cosmos-based sovereign chain sustainable platform will be the same as in the Starkware era What's the difference?
2. Like Rage Trade, a derivative based on Uniswap V3, will it have better depth and experience?
3. There will be more derivatives that imitate the GMX platform, so that users can choose to do LP and be the opponent of all Traders (Traders must lose money on average, so LP Always earn)
4.SynthetixV3 and TracerDAO, in theory, as long as the oracle machine supports it, they can make synthetic financial derivatives of everything in the world (slightly exaggerated) Or synthetic leverage Token.
Originally there was an Overlay Protocol, similar to the above two, and then more radical, using AMPL's rebase system does not even need the opponent's disk, so I paid attention It is still the most primitive test network for 1.5 years, and the progress is so slow that I want to cancel it
4.Stablecoin
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Luna is basically considered stable after the death, only Frax is still struggling to support it, and you must know that there is a large proportion of USDC in Frax components, and DAI is also ...
So basically Stablecoin has returned to the world of the earliest pure dollar Stablecoin. Although the circulation of USDC is still slightly lower than that of USDT, its status in the world is actually the boss . The only thing worth looking forward to in Stablecoin is the over-collateralized Stablecoin that AAVE and Curve claim to be doing. I don’t know if the leverage of DeFi will be layered after these two come out
5. RWA (real world asset)
This may have been the most important, but the most neglected. Everyone who plays DeFi has a dream of getting out of the circle, but once they put it into action, they find that the ideal is full and the reality is very skinny. The only thing that can be mentioned in the past two years is the real asset-backed DAI loan that MakerDAO cooperated with Centrifuge last year, and the recent case where 500 million DAI was used to buy treasury bonds and corporate bonds. Is there anything else?
To sum up, the trend of DeFi can be described as follows
1. Uniswap, AAVE, Curve After the first generation of DeFi has become a real infrastructure in name, last year’s so-called DeFi2.0 was basically falsified, and the real next wave of DeFi2.0 may be a “superposition type” based on the first generation of DeFi like Rage Trade and Morpho Labs Project, or Synthetix V3, TraceDao, a style that can touch the off-chain and outside world in the form of synthetic assets
2. From AAVE, Curve to be Stablecoin It is not difficult to see that the top DeFi projects are building the Stack, and we may see super applications beyond the public chain in the next round
3. It can be said that no one cares. Will it be like NFT in the end, it is a false proposition to burn famous paintings on the chain, and the native IP is the kingly way to be off the chain like a monkey? So the idea of putting off-chain assets on the chain is wrong (oh, I’m big than the original…), the original assets on the chain go out of the circle through DeFi or some form of off-chain is the kingly way?
Third. NFT and storage
The trend of NFT is roughly the following three
1. Application scenarios
The current NFT seems to have many application scenarios, and there are numbers right now Art, tickets, domain names (ENS), game items, Poap, etc., and even the LP of Uni V3 itself is an NFT...but the only thing that can be said at present is the avatar, and the only way to make an avatar is to be like Monkey made it into a brand or IP like that, and then created it later, so that the metaverse and other narratives can keep up. So you will see the opportunity that all NFTs that make avatars will draw you a metaverse pie, but I believe that few of them can really be made or are valuable. In short, they are very popular
Apart from avatars in application scenarios, what I am most optimistic about is the in-game items after SBT and GameFi enter the 2.0 era.
2. Financialization
The financialization of NFT is basically an irreversible trend. I also specifically posted about this on Twi before, all kinds of oracles, peer-to-peer lending, point-to-point NFT+DeFi projects that hold loans are emerging in an endless stream, all of which are essentially solving the problem of NFT liquidity
The current biggest problem at the level of financialization is : There are too few blue-chip NFTs, but there are too many NFTFI projects. Dozens of projects are basically vying for less than 10 blue-chip NFT projects.
An even bigger problem is that according to the judgment of 1, the future explosion of NFT will be on SBT and GameFi props. And SBT is not tradable, you can't build FI products around it, GameFi props are a big market, but according to Web2's experience, when a GameFi becomes popular, there is a high probability that he will Build your own Dex or Fi-related marketplace without handing over the fat. For example, Dota, CSGO, Fantasy Westward Journey... Web3's Stepn, the earliest Orca was used as Dex, which caused Orca's transaction volume to increase sharply. Later, it simply made Dex by itself, and Orca's transaction volume plummeted.
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Therefore, the currently seemingly popular NFTFI projects may have limited room for growth in the future, because they can only serve the top NFT avatar users. Of course, if my judgment on 1 is wrong, then this article will also not be established.
The most worthwhile project at the financial level is Sudoswap, which is a bit like The more concise version of NFTX+Sushiswap directly turns NFT trading and market making into an AMM experience like Uniswap. I suggest you try it. In particular, you can study his LP mechanism, which is quite creative. Although the mechanism is more complicated and troublesome than Uniswap, I really can’t think of any better design scheme at present
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Then there is the ERC4907-Rentable NFTs leaseable NFT protocol that was just confirmed not long ago. In theory, it can make financial NFT play more tricks, but it feels that the same biggest application adaptation scenario is still in the next On the first generation of GameFi
3. Market competition
Uniswap acquired Genie and claimed to want The integration of Sudoswap has been extended to the NFT field. Opensea acquired Gem and created a set of Seaport’s open source protocol. X2Y2 and Looksrare have been trying to poach Opensea by relying on pending orders and transaction rewards, so it should be Uniswap + Genie + What is the pattern of Sudoswap VS Opensea + Gem VS Looksrare + x2y2 VS new projects based on Seaport?
Finally, let’s talk about storage
Storage There is not much to say. I can see a big trend at present, that is, storage begins to cross borders, and its tentacles begin to extend to computing.
There are many reasons Simple, storage does not make money, at least in the current stage of blockchain development, storage does not make much money, the current core value of the entire blockchain is still a trustless mechanism oriented by "decentralized computing", and Non-"decentralized storage"
This has led to many storage projects that want to do decentralized network disks basically have no business, and everyone should use Amazon's If you use Amazon, you should use Dropbox. Use DropBox. Apart from hearing that a batch of small pictures are stored on AR, what other big business is there? ETH uses a lot of IPFS, but Filecoin still uses garbage data encapsulation for mining.
The current large storage projects are basically Both are expanding the road to the direction of computing
AR has made a SCP (Storage-based Consensus Paradigm) paradigm based on storage consensus based on Smartweave, which represents the Everpay. The SCP paradigm focuses on off-chain computing, client-side verification to expand capacity, which can completely break the performance bottleneck in theory. Bitcoin’s RGB protocol, BSV’s large blocks, and Truebit on ETH are a bit similar to this paradigm. As for whether this kind of "non-full node computing verification" can finally be recognized by the market, it is not known, after all, it is different from the number of traditional blockchain links
And recently Well-known storage projects like Ceramic (more like a blockchain database system) and Subspace basically include storage + computing, not 100% storage projects
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Four. GameFi
To be honest, I am very entangled in writing GameFi, because I haven’t fully seen or thought clearly about GameFi’s next step Where is the trend?
Let’s talk about the current state first
First of all, X2Earn has basically come to a A dead end, this kind of Ponzi model is very advantageous at the beginning, and then it begins to fall into trouble when it grows exponentially to a bottleneck period, which is very similar to the curve of the earliest liquidity mining that attracted users to mine through high APY, just because it is covered with a Layer GameFi's coat, so the timeline can be extended a lot, but its essential core is still a DeFi
Some people say that it is good to introduce external income, just like the DeFi project , as long as the project itself has income, it can break this Ponzi model, and Crv is the best example. GameFi can’t make money like DeFi projects, but it can introduce advertisements from the outside world in a way similar to SocialFi. For example, some people say that Stepn can cooperate with Starbucks to create a running route, pass Starbucks along the way, and the card must be there. It can be used as external income to break Ponzi
This idea is not wrong, but it still cannot solve the fundamental problem. The reason is that not everyone in DeFi digs It is the LPs that provide liquidity and bear the risk of impermanent losses and being hacked that make money from mines, but GameFi’s X2Earn, everyone is making money. There is no such a good "perpetual motion machine" in this world
< p>To give an example in an extreme situation - let's assume that Stepn becomes bigger and stronger to the size of Facebook, with 3 billion users, and then you will find a very scary thing - even if the average The GST that people run out is only one dollar, and the selling pressure is 3 billion US dollars every day, which is 1 trillion US dollars a year, and half of the consumption of upgrading running shoes and gems is still 500 billion US dollars...
< p>How much was Facebook’s advertising revenue last year? 80 billion US dollars
That is to say, after Stepn reaches this level, the advertising profitability must reach 6-7 times that of Facebook in order to maintain 1 Dollars of income - this is clearly unrealistic
So $0.1 per day?
Ask yourself, would you go to the next app and run for an extra $0.10 a day? Even if you open the app while running?
Obviously not make Sense
So where is the way out?
The current views and trends are the following two
1. - Free 2 play, play for Fun and Skill 2 Earn
To put it simply, it is more traditional, allowing everyone to participate for free, and then the part of making money becomes "Only some players make money"
The screening method is the player's Skill, character level, time and energy invested, understanding of the game, etc. To put it bluntly, awesome players can make money
What about the rest? Naturally it’s Play for fun
Then the question arises, tens of thousands of games are released on Steam every year, if it’s for For Fun, wouldn’t it be nice for me to play on Steam? ? Why come to Web3 to play GameFi? At least for now, GameFi as a whole is at the level of For Fun, which is not a little bit worse than Web2 games
Without a high degree of playability, there will be no A large number of players Play for Fun, if there are not enough players, there will be no krypton gold masters, and if there are no krypton gold masters, those awesome players will not get Skill to Earn... This is a flywheel, and a well-made game is like It is World of Warcraft, Fantasy Westward Journey, and Skill 2 Earn is realized without Web3
So this road is a direction, but I don’t know when GameFi’s production and availability The playability can be on par with traditional games, but at present, it is still far away...
2. Blockchain Native- Crypto Native
Cross the boat and seek the sword, and you will find that in the long run, the original things are always more vital
For example Just got the Internet, people don’t read newspapers anymore, go to the Internet to watch news, this is not original, it’s “internet reform”, the really awesome ones are Google, Youtube, Douyin, Wechat
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When we first had NFT, we thought about making famous paintings into NFTs, and then burned the paintings. Later, we found out that it should be reversed. The original Punk monkey became popular, and offline entities began to connect.< /p>
According to this idea, the above 1 is more like the chain reform and coin reform of traditional games, which does not give full play to the real original characteristics of the blockchain
< p>What should GameFi look like based on the native features of the blockchain? Fomo3D is a good example, although it is very simple, although it is partial to spinach
The later wolf sheep, dark forest, etc. are also very "original" Oriented elements, because the core logic of the entire game is on the chain, which is completed by smart contracts, not on off-chain servers, so the future will have advantages in open architecture, independent survival and composability
However, there are also big problems with this model. The most direct problem is that the threshold is too high. If Axie is Dota, Stepn is pesticide, wolf sheep and dark forest are "civilization" Series, often popular but not popular, the audience is very narrow, exclusive to hardcore players
So you ask me where is the way out, where is the trend, I really don’t know At present, I have seen such explorations as "Big Time" in the 1st direction (including recently Axie is also trying the path of Free 2 play), and there are also Isaac's attempts in the 2nd direction. Can the question I mentioned above be possible? Overcome, I believe the market will tell us after a while
I have been I believe that GameFi is a big trend, because there is no better way to open the market to everyone than games. But at the moment, I am really confused. I only know what GameFi2.0 should look like, but I don’t know what it should be or what it will eventually be like...
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