When the market is low, the giant whale's NFT bottom-buying strategy
Original title: " When the market is low, how do giant whales buy bottom NFT? "
Original source: NFT Go
Key Takeaways
- The order of the whales in the mid-June dip For: Bored Ape Yacht Club > Yuga Labs Other NFT >
- Among the super giant whales with more than 500,000 US dollars in bottom-buying funds, some focus on buying bottoms on a single NFT, and some have established a diversified combination of bottom-hunting; There are more giant whales with a capital scale of 100,000 to 250,000 US dollars to buy the bottom, and the cost of the NFT they buy is also different.
- By restoring the bottom-hunting of specific giant whales, it is found that their strategies have some things in common, such as: buying in batches, buying more and more as they fall, and their respective Have your own "coup" for bottom-hunting.
From June 7th to June 18th, the encryption market and NFT have plummeted, and this week, the NFT market is gradually rebounding. So, in the market lows, which NFTs did the giant whales buy, and what strategies did they adopt? Which giant whales participated in this low-point buying, and what is the bottom-hunting combination and average bottom-buying price of the giant whales?
When the market is low, trading volume rises
Since the first half of this year, the crypto market has been in decline. In the last two weeks (June 7-June 18), the price of BTC has continued to fall, with a two-week drop of more than 40%. Affected by Celsius, ETH also fell below $1,000 for a time.
BTC market value, Data source: CMC
Similarly, the NFT market has been affected by this, and the trading volume of OpenSea has also shown a downward trend recently, but we see that on June 7 Trading volumes during the period up to June 18 fluctuated. In the downtrend, the NFT market still produced a large number of short-term transactions, during which a large number of hand changes occurred, so we selected this time frame as the analysis period this time.
OpenSea transaction volume Trend (6.7—6.18), data source: NFTGo.io
Which NFTs have the giant whales bought?
The top ten NFTs purchased by giant whales
After observing thousands of giant whales After the wallet, we first focus on the top ten NFTs purchased by giant whales. It is worth noting that Otherdeed ranked first, with a total of 173 giant whales, with an average purchase price of 6.22ETH, equivalent to $9410 in US dollars; the tenth place is Bored Ape Yacht Club, with a total of giant whales. 25, the average purchase price is 135ETH, which is $179849 after being converted into US dollars.
In addition to blue-chip NFTs, we also see some non-blue-chip NFT projects, such as the second-placed tubby cats by tubby collective, bought by giant whales According to the in-depth data on the chain, most of these NFTs are bought by a single giant whale in large quantities. The reason may be that the giant whale is absorbing chips and making a layout. Most whales still execute their NFT trading strategies even when BTC drops by 40%.
Giant whale purchase The top ten NFTs by volume (June 7-June 18), data source: NFTGo.io
The top ten NFTs purchased by giant whales
Calculated by the number of purchases * current price (USD), the top ten NFTs purchased by giant whales are obtained again. This ranking seems to be more in line with the NFT market consensus. From June 7th to June 18th, when BTC was almost cut in half, giant whales alone bought Bored Ape Yacht Club worth $4.5 million, CryptoPunks worth $1.88 million, and Otherdeed worth $1.72 million.
It is worth noting that the top three are still the NFT series under Yuga Labs, and the first place Bored Ape Yacht Club has more funds than the second place The sum of the first place and the third place is even more. Obviously, the buying preference of giant whales when the market plummets is: Bored Ape Yacht Club > Yuga Labs other NFTs > other blue-chip and emerging projects.
Giant whale purchase Top 10 NFTs by funds (June 7th - June 18th), data source: NFTGo.io
Which giant whales have bought the bottom?
Due to the large fluctuations in the price of ETH during this period (June 7-June 18), we use the U standard to observe which giant whales buy The largest amount of funds.
Buy 50 The super giant whales with more than 10,000 US dollars, data source: NFTGo.io
As shown in the above figure, there are 5 super whales who bought NFTs with more than 500,000 US dollars Among them, the top three bottom-hunting NFT types are relatively single. For example, the number one is btok1024.eth, which only bought one Bored Ape Yacht Club and spent 1024ETH. This is a relatively extreme special case. The second place franklinisbored.eth bought 7 Bored Ape Yacht Club, and the third place n0b0dy.eth bought 17 Otherdeed.
Starting from the fourth whale, the NFT combination of bottom-hunting began to diversify, and I chose [2 Meebits+6 Doodles+9 Bored Ape Kennel Club +3 Bored Ape Yacht Club+5 Clone X+2 Moonbirds+2 Otherdeed】Combined bargain hunting. The fifth place will choose "【4 Murakami.Flowers+4 Bored Ape Yacht Club+2 Clone X】.
NFT bought by the top five super giant whales, data source: NFTGo.io
Among the giant whales with a capital scale of more than 50,000 US dollars, in addition to the 5 super giant whales at the head, there are 16 giant whales who choose to buy bottoms with a capital scale of 100,000 to 250,000 US dollars. The top five NFTs they chose were Otherdeed, Bored Ape Yacht Club, CryptoPunks, Art Blocks, and Clone X according to the amount of bargain-hunting funds, and their average bargain-hunting prices were $152373.8, $82259.15, $35753.61, $24962.94, and $15214.22.
The distribution of whales with different scales of bottom-hunting funds, data source: NFTGo.io
Giant whales (100K-250K bottom-buying funds) average bottom-buying price, data source: NFTGo.io
What strategy does the giant whale adopt to buy bottom?
Among the top ten whales who bought Otherdeed within the selected time, the number one whale bought 55 Otherdeed at a cost of 112.97ETH, Converted to the price at the time of purchase, the total is about 160,000 US dollars. As of June 21, the floor price of Otherdeed was 2.4 ETH, and the giant whale had made a profit of 19.25 ETH, with a gain of 17%. Let’s see how he used 160,000 US dollars to complete the bottom-hunting.
Otherdeed whale purchase Quantity leaderboard (June 7th - June 18th), data source: NFTGo.io
Starting from June 7th, with Otherdeed's The floor price gradually decreased, and the giant whale began to buy gradually. From June 7th to June 8th, it first bought 6 Otherdeeds at a price close to the floor price, with an average price of 2.596ETH.
On June 9th, when the floor price of Otherdeed fell below 2.5ETH, he bought 10 Otherdeed at an average price of 2.368ETH again, reducing short-term holding costs to 2.45ETH.
On June 12, Otherdeed accelerated its decline to 1.8ETH. He completed the last batch of short-term increase, and purchased 39 Otherdeed at an average price of 1.89ETH , at this time he reduced the cost of short-term total positions to 2.05ETH.
Otherdeed first Giant whale buying range chart, data source: NFTGo.io
Otherdeed price chart (6.7-6.18), data source: NFTGo.io
Overall, his strategy is gradually Increase the position: the greater the decline, the more you buy. Divide the purchase price into three ranges: 2.5-2.7ETH, 2.3-2.5ETH, 1.7-2ETH, buy the quantity respectively: 6, 10, 39, and the overall cost is controlled at Around 2.05ETH.
It is worth noting that when the price of Otherdeed began to rise from June 13th to June 15th, he did not lie down to win, but chose to continue buying This indicates that the giant whale has its own valuation judgment on the NFT, and believes that the price is still in its own "bottom-hunting range", so it can continue to buy even after the lowest point of the price has passed.
The more interesting point is that among the 55 bottom-buying times, he bought 34 times through offer bids, and 21 times through direct purchases. His "little trick" of bottom-hunting also shows that the probability of people accepting "offer bids" will increase in a falling market.
Combined with the specific trend of Otherdeed, on June 13th, the floor price of Otherdeed dropped to a minimum of 1.8ETH, and at the same time the transaction volume reached a relative The peak, which also confirms that in addition to giant whales, many people also chose to "buy the bottom" Otherdeed here.
Otherdeed price and Trading volume, data source: NFTGo.io
Let’s look at the giant whale with the largest number of bottom-buying BAYCs from June 7th to June 18th. He is How to "buy the bottom".
Calculating from the price on June 7, when BAYC fell by 10%, he chose to buy one; on June 13, BAYC fell by 20% , Start buying again, buy 5 stocks in the range of 20%-30% decline, and control the short-term cost at 80ETH. On June 14, he purchased BAYC with a rarity of top 10% from LooksRare with 120ETH.
BAYC First Giant whale buying range chart, data source: NFTGo.io
BAYC price chart price (6.7-6.18), data source: NFTGo.io
The giant whale adopts partitioning The BAYC of the floor price conducts bottom-hunting, buying according to the price drop, and buying one by one after every price drop of more than 10%.
Through the above analysis, we can probably get some logic for whales to buy bottom.
1. For a single NFT, buy in batches (3 batches) according to the range, and buy when you enter your own valuation range.
2. Buy according to the decline rather than time, the greater the decline, the more you buy.
3. Try to copy the bottom of the offer bid.
4. Buy bottoms for big blue chips classified by rarity, and buy bottoms for new blue chips with diversified combinations.
5. You can try multiple platforms such as X2Y2, LooksRare, not just OpenSea.
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