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Concensus2022 conference essay, and bear market sentiment

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Bear market, is the best time to practice

Concensus conference + Bear Market Thoughts

Original author: Gao Xiao Cat

Recently, I went to Austin to attend the Concensus held by Coindesk. It happened that there was a big drop in the past few days. I have a lot of personal feelings about these two things, so I want to write an article to talk about these two things in turn.

Concensus assembly

Concensus has held online events for the past two years due to the pandemic, but has switched to offline events this year as the pandemic is no longer an issue.

In general, this will be more businesslike than the ethGlobal series, such as EthDenver, which is more comprehensive and newbie friendly, with less hardcore content.

I would like to mention the similarities and differences of various crypto conferences I know.

If you are a developer and want to learn in the Web3 world, I would recommend going to EthDenver, or other online or offline conferences hosted by EthGlobal, such as Eth Amsterdam, ETH CC Paris, ETH New York, etc. These meetings are very developer friendly, and there are hackathon events as well.

For bitcoin enthusiasts, go to the annual Bitcoin Miami conference.

Permissionless heard that comparison Focus is in the defi subdivision field. I haven't been there yet.

Concensus is more commercial, which is suitable for a team that already has mature products. Come here to find some to B customers to further open the market, or to find some partners. The booth was expensive (said to be in the tens of thousands of dollars) and not very popular.

I heard that solana has a very good atmosphere for developers, but the VC atmosphere behind Solana is too strong, and retail investors can't make money if they know about it, so let it go.

我个人没有怎么听会议里的讲座，绝大部分时间都在逛 expo。借此了解到不少我之前不太了解的服务。

Here are just a few that I remember.

一： fireblocks

Fireblocks is a wallet hosting business. They have grown rapidly from dozens of people a year ago to hundreds now. They mainly serve some big investment institutions or funds. They are said to manage the wallets of several well-known institutions, such as Google Ventures.

So what problem did they solve? The main problem is hierarchical management. Like a generic wallet (such as a Metamask), if you get a private key, you can access all the money in it. But Fireblocks' wallet allows different users to have limited access, allowing the fund company to grant different fund managers access to a certain amount of money without fear of the manager running off with all the money.

This is mainly achieved through MPC technology. That is, the private key of the wallet is divided into two parts, one part is held by the operator and the other part is held by Fireblocks. Only two partial private keys can be put together for operation.

So when a person has only partial authorization, Fireblocks can optionally sign that part of the private key based on the operator's permission.

And because Fireblocks will always have a partial private key, it will never be able to access its wallet itself.

2: waev.com

They use smart contracts to manage data that needs to be managed in a specific way.

For example, traditionally we would upload data to aws or something like that, and then regulators would require companies to have certain kinds of permissions on that data, but because those permissions are changeable, it's hard to make sure that data is not abused.

However, if the way and permissions of using data are regulated in a smart contract, the data will be less likely to be abused in the future.

Waev.com does just that. They plan to store data on IPFS, and then use smart contracts on Ethereum to control the permissions of the data stored on IPFS, so that users can be 100% confident that the data can only be used in the way specified in the smart contract, and actually have the ownership of the user's data back to the user.

Of course, the current storage price of IPFS data is still very expensive, but I believe that with the development of technology, all price problems will be solved.

Three: dexible

They can help you customize some of the actions you want to perform on the chain.

Say you want to buy WBTC from UnisWAp with USDC at 5mins intervals when BTC reaches 10,000.

You can define these actions on DeXible, and DeXible will do them automatically for you. This way, you don't have to monitor the price yourself, or use the bot yourself to automate on-chain operations.

Three Arrows, Polychain and more are said to use their services.

Four: xyo

They can provide GPS locations that can't be faked. This seems to be done by having a cross reference for bluetooth and GPS devices. They plan to use GPS location data, which cannot be forged, as a source for Oracle data. If this can really be made unfakable, I think it's really valuable.

Five: fbank

They're a Puerto Rican bank that's very crypto-friendly.

They also reportedly use Fireblocks for their wallet hosting service.

Six: syntropy

They built a network in which participants could provide data about their own communication speeds and those of other nodes in the region in exchange for online rewards. With this data in the network, users can know which route the data is taking the fastest, thus speeding up the network.

I feel like their service is similar to Deeper Network.

In addition to watching expo, I also met many new friends and caught up with some old friends.

The general feeling is that we are very optimistic about Web3 in the long run.

On the one hand, more and more of my friends from other industries have entered this industry, and the phenomenon of accelerating talent influx is very obvious.

On the other hand, by attending the conference, you will really realize that there are a lot of unsolved problems in the industry that deserve to be solved.

This may not sound like much, but if you are actually in the venue, you will have a completely different experience. The so-called blockchain scam will collapse under this feeling.

While I am optimistic in the long term, in the short term the primary market has slowed significantly (compared to sentiment at EthDenver) and the overall primary market valuation has come down significantly.

Of course, there is still some money in the market, not a total shortage of money, so for the primary market, maybe the bear market has just begun. Crypto's secondary market, on the other hand, has been a bear for months.

Now, finally, let's talk about the current market.

Today's bitcoin crash has reached the bottom line I set a few months ago. I predicted that the bottom line of copying was 25,000-15000, divided into 5 funds. Copy in batches at 25000, 22500, 20000, 17500 and 15000 respectively.

The reason is so determined, mainly because 25000 started into the AHR999 index copy bottom line, below 0.45. Historically, the lowest ahR999 index has been around 0.25(2018.12.16, 2020.3.12), or about 15000.

At the same time, 15000 is also the shutdown price of s19 and other latest generation mining machines. There is little room for further decline from this point, so I choose such a bottom-fishing price range.

For the future, I think we could see a long period of consolidation between 0.25/0.45 ahR999 (15000-25000), with some partial moves in between, but the big moves will probably have to wait for the next cycle, which will be cut in half in 2024 before they start again.

Bear market is long, someone summed up the bear market to go through three stages:

Click here to view the

The first phase is just beginning to have a big correction, people are a little bit panicked, but there is still some bottom-fishing, there is still some fantasy.

The second stage is really falling too hard, people are desperate. There are a lot of big companies laying off workers, and some are even starting to go bankrupt.

The third stage is that everyone in the market is desperate, no one has a voice, the project has no voice, and no one talks about the industry.

It's still phase two, and the bear market has a long way to go. From this point of view, the bottom is not too urgent, you can take your time, anyway, the third stage will go for a long time.

Of course, from a long-term optimistic point of view, the next 1-2 years will be the wave of bear market before Web3 really gains mass adoption, and the best time for cultivation, accumulation and learning. We can accumulate chips, knowledge and technology together to welcome the next wave of technology.