Nansen Data Tells You Whether NFTs Are Crypto's Safe Haven

Decrypt

2022-03-18 10:00

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原文标题：《 Nansen 数据告诉你 NFT 是否是加密货币的避风港》

Source: Decrypt

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Summary of main points:

A report from Nansen suggests that Ethereum-denominated NFT could be a safe haven for high-volatility cryptocurrencies.

Last month, cryptocurrency analytics firm Nansen released six new indexes to track the NFT market

Now a report reveals some surprising results from using the index:

The six indices break down the NFT market. The NFT 500 (similar to the S&P 500), the "blue-chip -10" index (the top 10 "famous" and "classic" NFT series by market capitalization), the "Social -100", These include popular PFP types like Bored Ape Yacht Club or World of Women, as well as three other indices for "art", "social" and "Metaverse" NFT.

Using these trackers, Nansen has gathered various correlations between different types of NFT collections and the broader cryptocurrency market.

NFTs outperformed the cryptocurrency market

First, NFTs have been the most bullish segment for cryptocurrencies.

While most cryptocurrency markets have undergone a significant correction recently, NFTs have led the way, performing 90.9% year to date (YTD) in ETH and 35.9% in USD.

Bitcoin is down about 17 percent and Ethereum is down more than 31 percent since January 1, according to CoinMarketCap.

Blue chips in the NFT market are all positive, while cryptocurrencies have generally lost money this year.

Another intriguing finding from Nansen's NFT-500 data so far this year is that when denominated in Ethereum, the price of NFT is inversely related to the price of spot cryptocurrencies.

According to Nansen, the correlation between its NFT 500 index (in ETH terms) and Bitcoin is -0.46. The correlation between the same index and Ethereum (also calculated in ETH) is -0.6.

When the correlation coefficient is measured, "1" indicates a direct positive correlation, meaning that the two variables move in lockup. In contrast, "-1" indicates that the two variables are moving in opposite directions.

However, when looking at NFT prices in dollars, there is a positive correlation between the two assets.

The difference is largely due to volatility, Nansen said.

"NFTs also behave very differently when they are denominated in US dollars. This is due to fluctuations in the ETH/ US dollar exchange rate. Therefore, the resulting correlation coefficient is different," Nansen research analyst Louisa Choe tells Decrypt. "This may be an important factor for investors when deciding whether their portfolio should be denominated in cryptocurrency or fiat currencies."

Nansen's NFT-500 index data (denominated in Ethereum) also shows a strong inverse correlation with the decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens listed in Bankless's DeFi Innovation Index.

Thus, when the ethereum price of NFT is high, the DOLLAR price of DeFi tokens is usually lower. It should be noted that Bankless's index tracks "early DeFi projects that are not yet considered 'blue chips'".

Which NFT collections performed best?

The best-performing sector in this group is NFT artwork and social products. Chainalysis published an analysis earlier this year that pegged the market capitalization at nearly $41 billion, and Nansen records that social NFT alone accounts for $12.8 billion, or about 30 percent.

Art NFTs have returned 191.8% (in ETH) and 108.1% (in USD) so far this year.

During the same period (ending February 28, 2022), the Social-100 index showed a return of 114.8% (ETH) and 53.2% (USD).

Art NFTs takes advantage of daily volatility, or a measure of the average difference between the return on a given day and the average return over a given period.

Art NFTs had daily volatility of 36% (ETH) and 37.3% (USD), while Metaverse and Social NFT had the lowest volatility, with all denominations having volatility figures well below 10%.