Why Ethereum must complete the merger by June 2022
Original author: Superphiz
Original compilation: 0x22D, Rhythm BlockBeats
Ether The Fang merge is one of the most important events in the Crypto industry in 2022, and it is the beginning of Ethereum's shift to PoS. Superphiz, a community consultant on the Ethereum beacon chain, made a prediction based on various signs: the Ethereum merger will be completed in June 2022. Rhythm organized and translated its Reddit content as follows:
1. On February 19, 2022, Ethereum researcher Danny Ryan was in Ethereum There was a talk at the Denver conference titled "Ethereum PoS and Our Solar Punk Future", I highly recommend you listen to this talk 6 times. In his speech, Danny Ryan asked himself a question: "So, when (the merger)? It's actually very close. I think the timing of the difficulty bomb will be impeccable, maybe sometime in June, Maybe sometime in July." I believe Danny's words are saying that he doesn't want to delay the difficulty bomb again, and that the merge fork will happen before it explodes to disarm the difficulty bomb.
2. On the 83rd consensus layer call on March 10, 2022, Ben Edgington pointedly asked Danny Ryan why Ethereum merged with the public testnet Kiln was delayed by ten days: "A brief summary of why Kiln was delayed by about 10 days. This is different from what we confirmed at the last meeting. I am very concerned about such a small delay." Danny's answer is that they are To accomplish something technical, you need to interact with the wider community. This conversation can say something, the developers are counting days, marking that they are working hard to meet their June goals.
3. The preparation list for merging the mainnet is about to be completed. Evaluating this list can be tricky because you can't estimate completion just by how many completed and incomplete items are on the list, but if you examine the items carefully, you'll see that the most difficult items have already been completed.
4. On March 10, 2022, Ethereum developer Marius Van Der Wijden announced the launch of the Kiln merged public testnet. It is widely believed that Kiln will be the last testnet before the merger.
5. According to EIP-4345, the difficulty bomb will explode around June 2022. Since the explosion time of the difficulty bomb is based on the number of blocks rather than time, it is difficult to predict the specific explosion time. With the difficulty bomb as a mechanism for prodding major upgrades to completion, developers will be racing against the clock to determine whether they should hard fork by June, delay the difficulty bomb again, or take advantage of the rare hard fork opportunity to implement the merge. Currently, there is no public statement from anyone encouraging the difficulty bomb to be delayed without implementing the merge. If the time comes to July and Ethereum has not yet completed the merger, then (after the difficulty bomb explodes), we will have a good show.
All of these factors strongly suggest that the merger is on track and will be fully deployed by June 2022. Here's an interesting thing about my predictions: Even if I'm wrong, I'd rather be firm in predicting that the Ethereum merger will be completed in June than lower the community's expectations and stay right. Let's aim to see the merger in June.
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