ARK 2022 Picks: How can crypto hit $50 trillion?

Original article by ARK Invest

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在前天的 ARK Invest「2022 年 Big Idea」峰会上，区块链占据了大部分内容。在会议上，ARK 预估加密市值将在 2030 年达到 50 万亿美元的市值。加密领域未来如何发展？市值如何突破 50 万亿？律动编者对会议内容进行了如下整理。

区块链如何引领变革

与互联网最终促进所有产业的方式类似，在区块链上发行的加密资产可能会影响所有资产类别，如艺术品、商品甚至股份公司等。我们可以进一步将这个框架细化为三场同时进行的变革：比特币带来的货币变革、DeFi 带来的金融变革，以及将发生在 Web 3.0 的消费变革。

As far as DeFi is concerned, Ethereum has attracted a lot of talent and capital through its application of decentralized finance, which enables users to access a variety of financial services worldwide without permission. And now, with the rise of NFT and decentralized identity, blockchains also seem to be catalyzing the growth of the next generation of the Internet, effectively giving users control over their online identities and data.

而区块链释放出的的潜在市场和特定应用场景对信任程度和便捷性也有不同的需求。因此不会存在一条区块链解决所有需求的情况。每个市场和用例都需要根据特定的功能和安全性作出权衡。所以在很多情况下，拿处于不同变革板块中的区块链作比较是不可行的。

On the left side of the chart below is a monetary revolution that prioritizes maximization of trust and decentralization. As we move right into finance and the Internet, public chains like Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and others are making trade-offs between decentralization and convenience. By giving up some degree of decentralization, you gain more functionality and higher throughput. This trade-off is necessary in the process of competing with traditional finance and the Internet.

Bitcoin 单价将达到 1 百万美元

In 2021, bitcoin's market cap topped $1 trillion for the first time. Despite the recent sharp drop, the two charts below show the extreme intensity of the majority of Bitcoin holders.

在左侧图表中我们可以看到，虽然比特币市值增长了近 96%，但比特币的实际盈利和总成本基础增长了近 170%，超 4500 亿美元。虽然比特币市值已从高点下跌近 50%，但其总成本基础仍处于历史高位，这表明投资者对比特币的抱有极高的信心。

而在右侧图表中可以看出，长期持有者基础也在加强。目前，长期持有者持有约 1350 万枚比特币，并且有超过 500,000 个比特币地址仅收到了两次传入交易并且从未有转出记录。

尽管许多人批评比特币无法支持高交易吞吐量，但他们并没有意识到比特币已成为一个高价值交易的全球结算网络。2021 年，比特币链上结算价值超过 13 万亿美元，同比翻了两倍之多。每天有 360 亿美元在比特币基础层结算，平均交易价值超 136,000 美元，正式是超越了 VISA。

As the best-performing asset of the past decade, many investors believe they missed the best time to invest in bitcoin. But if you look at it in terms of comparing it to other asset classes, bitcoin still represents only a small fraction of the value of global assets. ARK believes bitcoin's market cap could grow more than 25-fold to $28.5 trillion by 2030. Even so, it is still a small fraction of equities, the global money supply, bonds and real estate.

With a market cap of $28.5 trillion, bitcoin is worth more than $1 million per coin. How does that $1 million come together? The chart below breaks down bitcoin's future use cases into eight sections, with the biggest one still being Bitcoin as a store of value that competes with gold. Other use cases include: as a choice for a diversified portfolio, as an economic settlement network for the national Treasury, as insurance for asset seizure, etc.

DeFi 将助力以太坊市值突破 22 万亿美元

自 2017 年以来，随着围绕智能合约的开发生态逐渐成熟，智能合约的复杂性也显着提高。如今我们看到了借贷、交易所资产管理、保险等全方位的去中心化金融服务，所有这些都已在以太坊等公链上部署、构建和采用。这个平行的金融生态系统对全球用户开放，长期来看有足够的潜力去挑战传统老牌企业的市场份额。

To illustrate the impact of these developments on the underlying blockchain, we can refer to the total fee revenue they generate, which is the sum of transaction fees paid by users to use the blockchain. Ethereum's fee income per transaction paralleled bitcoin in the first half of the year, but in the final quarter of last year, as NFT gained momentum, ethereum's annual revenue grew to $10 billion, surpassing that of many S&P 500 companies.

At the eco-development level, developers don't need to be able to build new applications on top of other people's innovations, and take advantage of the real-time settlement provided by the blockchain track, reducing middlemen's barriers and reducing counterparty risk. This makes DeFi's capital efficiency much higher than that of traditional finance.

在过去的一年里，以太坊上 DeFi 协议管理的资产增长到超过 1000 亿美元。稳定币的发行也突破了 1000 亿美元。加之 NFT 的出现，以太坊的价格也飙升至 4,000 美元的历史新高。尽管整个 2021 年加密货币市场伴随着高度波动，但稳定币市值依然继续稳步上升，甚至在年底加速。这表明市场参与者并不愿意完全退出并持有现金。

Ultimately, ethereum has the ability to reach a potential market of more than $20 trillion over the next 10 years as more use cases emerge, especially for financial services functions deployed on the chain. If Ethereum eventually becomes a significant platform covering global financial services and maintains its pivotal role in the economy, ethereum's market value will reach $22.5 trillion.

Web3 年度线上消费将增长至 12.5 万亿美元

是什么让 web 3 与 web 2 不同？ARK 认为最终可以归结到数字所有权。在传统的 web 2 模型中，一个中心化平台处于我们消费者、企业、创造者，以及我们的数字资产、身份和数据之间的中心位置，占据着主要资源。

然而，随着区块链技术的出现和采用，这种模式在很大程度上被颠覆了，用户、企业、创作者可以完全拥有自己的数字生活，无需与中心化聚合体或平台进行交互。从长远来看，这将产生巨大的影响，并有助于重新定义消费者在线消费的偏好。

In 2021, NFT generated $21 billion in sales and the number of unique buyers per month soared nearly eightfold to more than 700,000, indicating that the concepts surrounding digital ownership and digital assets are beginning to resonate with Internet users.

Collectibles and digital art currently account for more than 75% of Ethereum NFT sales. NFT sales from titles such as The Sandbox and Axie Infinity accounted for only 25% of Taifang's cumulative sales. As the gaming and metasurverse market grows, the demand for gaming NFT is likely to outstrip the demand for digital collectibles and art, showing more utility.

Annual online spending on Web3 could reach $12.5tn over the next decade. According to ARK's research, offline consumption will peak at $49 trillion per year within a decade and then decline with the advent of Web3. Without Web3, annual online spending would likely grow by 16% annually, from $1.4 trillion in 2021 to $5.2 trillion in 2030. In a Web3 environment, however, annual online spending could grow by 28% annually to $12.5 trillion.

2022 加密市场宏观背景

此次峰会还邀请了宏观机构 Real Vision 创始人 Raoul Pal 对当前市场的波动性进行分析探讨，律动编者整理如下：

就加密市场与主流市场的相关性而言，机构的投资在背后扮演了主要的推动作用。因此当宏观叙事转变时，一切市场都会产生同样的相关性。假设你是一家投资了加密市场的对冲基金，当你迫于宏观叙事的转变而不得不降低风险暴露比时，加密货币自然也成为了抛售资产中的一部分，也就使加密市场与其他市场产生了相关性。

The current market volatility is a response to a shift in the "inflation narrative", a dawning realisation that both growth and inflation are slowing, and markets do not like this shift. But the experience of the past is that central banks will be more dovish than expected in the future because it is difficult for the economy to regain enough traction in the short term. This prospect is very supportive for cryptocurrency prices.

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