Glassnode: BTC has a serious supply-side crisis?

Original title: "Glassnode | BTC has a serious supply-side crisis? "

Original source: Encryption Valley Live (ID: cryptovalley)

Original author: Liesl Eichholz

BTC continued to grow in the last week of the year, reaching a new high of over $28,000. On-chain signals remain bullish, suggesting that Bitcoin has a serious supply-side crisis.

Bitcoin market health

BTC continued to rise rapidly in the past week, It went on to set new all-time highs and quickly climbed above $28,000. After starting the week at $23,480, it continued to rise, reaching a high of $28,289. On Sunday, however, it started to drop slightly, ending at $26,390.

Bull Market

Although BTC's price has risen significantly in the past month, its Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) remains relatively low at 0.67 . That means it's still in the green "confidence" zone and has yet to reach the blue "excitement" zone that typically marks market tops.

This The relatively low NUPL value indicates that BTC has more room to grow before the top, although it is already well above the previous all-time high. In comparison, when NUPL was at its current value in the 2017 bull run, BTC was only $5,622, still up 248% before the top. If Bitcoin follows this trend again, it will translate into a market top of $65,500.

This makes Bitcoin's low NUPL a bullish sign, as it suggests that Bitcoin has plenty of room to grow before the market peaks.

Optimistic review by Willy Woo

Willy Woo Earnings: 2021 Possibly over $200,000

We're past the high moment now. While this model cannot predict prices, it can estimate price ceilings at some point in the future, and it has hit every macro market top in Bitcoin's history.

assuming Oil prices peaked in December 2021. According to previous market cycles, the target of $100,000 is too conservative, and the target of $200,000-300,000 is considered realistic.

Altcoin Feature: ETH balance on exchange is increasing

Passed After falling for most of the year, ETH balances on centralized exchanges started to increase this month.

This year, both BTC and ETH's foreign exchange balances have seen a significant decline, because people's trust in centralized institutions has declined, and more investors have moved their assets from Withdraw from long-term holdings. However, as of mid-December, the amount of ETH on exchanges started to increase again.

Although This could be seen as negative for ETH (as it could indicate an intent to sell), but there is another explanation for this rise. Much of the increase in Ethereum FX balances occurred on Bitfinex, which launched lending against Bitcoin and ETH on Dec. 18.

Therefore, this increase may be due to investors using Bitfinex Borrow to borrow ETH, while the number of Bitcoins on Bitfinex has also seen a similar increase. This means that investors are taking long positions rather than preparing to sell, which is a bullish sign for ETH.

Weekly feature: Bitcoin’s supply-side crisis

On-chain Indicators show very bullish signals around Bitcoin’s available supply, suggesting that demand far outstrips supply. This has been reflected in the recent price rally, which has seen bitcoin reach all-time highs as more buyers push prices higher.

Our co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft recently identified some core metrics that reflect this supply and liquidity crisis.

For example, accumulating The number of bitcoins in addresses is growing steadily. Accumulation addresses are addresses that have only received bitcoins and never spent them.

These The number of Bitcoins held in addresses represents 14.5% of the total supply, which is one of many factors contributing to the massive supply limit.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's adjusted circulating supply shows that due to the loss of Bitcoins, the total supply of Bitcoins will only be around 16 million (rather than the expected 21 million). With demand from institutional investors also high, the supply of BTC is likely to remain constrained, paving the way for further price gains.