NewBloc: U.S. stocks continue to move lower, and cryptographic market volatility is likely to continue to narrow

U.S. Stocks continue to slide, Cryptocurrency volatility Likely to Continue to narrow

Author: NewBloc analyst Liu Zheng

On September 3rd the Nasdaq breached yet another record high, reaching 12,074, before quickly falling back and closing at 10,862 for a week ina row. Bitcoin was highly correlated with the US equity market, reaching a low of 9,844, according to Binance. Recently, global geopolitical risks have risen sharply, and the number of infected people in some countries has once again reached a new high. What will the performance of cryptoassets with risky properties and certain "risk aversion" properties be?

Important conclusions of this paper:

The cryptographic market has been helped by the narrowing of volatility in global financial assets.

Price in the short term cannot form a new trend, from the technical point of view in the short and medium term or to shock the market, long - term bullish.

According to the public opinion monitoring data, the recent encryption market heat has decreased.

At this stage, bitcoin volatility is less than Ethereum. Defi has a strong concept of persistence, and ethereum is more likely to lead the subsequent market trend

Big.

Keep an eye on the landing and application of ETHlayer2, keep an eye on the Defi concept, and watch for its reignition and hotspot conversion nodes.

Global financial Market

Geopolitical risks have been on the rise recently, with the number of people infected with the NEW Coronavirus hitting new highs in some regions. U.S. stocks have been down for nearly a week, and jumped to a low last Tuesday before closing the gap.

After a week of rapid rise, the VIX fear index did not follow the plunge of the three major U.S. stock indexes to rise further last week. Instead, it fell on the weekly level, indicating that market investors' fear of the three major indexes falling for two consecutive weeks has been released.

Source: tradingview

Watch gold move from technical analysis if prices fall to A point is the continued pressure on previous support. During the continuous downward trend of the price, the high and the low both keep falling and are close to the key support of $1,900, with the possibility of breaking down. However, the subsequent rapid reversal of the price indicates that this position is strongly supported.

If the price rises to B and exceeds the downward sloping trend line as shown in FIG. 3, it may go out of a continuous upward trend or continue to rise after a small arrangement in technical form. In the recent upward resistance, it falls back and is now in a narrow range of shocks.

To sum up, the price of gold into a disorderly state of shock, the subsequent trend formation, need more time to accumulate.

Fundamental information, focus on the U.S. unemployment rate and the latest poll changes, both of which are more important to support the U.S. stock market.

Source: brookings.edu

As the chart shows, the US unemployment rate has fallen month by month since its peak in April 2020.

Source: realclearpolitics.com

Polls show Mr Trump's approval rating has stabilised since its low on August 16, rising at a significantly higher Angle than Mr Biden's.

This will, to some extent, boost capital markets' confidence in the US market, which is likely to stabilise once THE US stock market stabilises.

Crypto asset market

Extended to digital currency, last week, the expectation that the overall trend will rebound quickly after the low adjustment out of the weak areas dashed, the overall trend of digital currency also entered the continued weak consolidation, BTC sentiment followed the price decline, the price into a sideways state.

BTC sentiment price comparison chart

Source: blockchaintrend.net

Looking at the data of 2020.7.27, we find that the current price and sentiment are highly fitting with the data of the day. Then BTC started a continuous upswing. The difference is that the sentiment was on the uptrend, and now the sentiment is on the downtrend. It will take time for sentiment and prices to stabilize together. And once the sentiment data shows an upward trend, a new round of rising prices will also start.

Source: qkl123.com

The summary of futures positions of major exchanges shows that in the process of price consolidation, futures positions did not change significantly.

Existing positions do not choose to close positions, at the same time, no more short open positions. In the long - term bullish general context, prices continue to collapse the probability of small.

Source: Okex.com

Single station statistics bitcoin long short position ratio back to 1:1, see the enthusiasm back.

Source: tradingview.com

Compared with the price of Bitcoin, the long/short position ratio fell to 1 on August 25, August 27, which was the second dip. Subsequently, BTC formed a surge in the price.

On September 9, BTC price appeared the lowest stage, at this time long short position ratio is greater than 1, and now the price rises, long short position ratio back to 1. Long orders bought at the September 9 lows were unwound during today's price rise.

Look more sentiment has a recession, need to wait for long short position ratio this data and BTC prices re-appear together up, the possibility of a new round of trend upward.

Source: charts.woobull.com

BTCNVT data dropped from 102 to 85, with a decrease rate of nearly 20%, but the trend of NVT data has a strong continuity, as shown in the figure, the average volatility of NVT & GT; 40%, so the reference meaning of NVT is limited this time.

Source: tokenview.com

Large trading volume from 742.75 to 248.25 below, large trading heat has decreased.

Source: dapptotal.com

With the rapid issuance of us dollars, the issuance of stable COINS in digital currencies is also accelerating, supporting the continuous growth of the total market value of digital currencies.

Figure 13. source:trends.google.com

The trend search index of BTC Google has not reached a new low within the month, which indicates to some extent that the attention of BTC has not decreased significantly. Still under constant scrutiny.

Source: coingossip. IO

The iteration speed of social network search results is relatively neutral. Although the speed is also fast, it has certain reference value.

Public sentiment towards BTC and ETH has declined considerably in the past 24 hours.

Expect a sudden surge in public interest, and then see what happens to prices. (Sampling time: 16:00, September 13)

From what has been discussed above

The cryptographic market is subject to a narrowing of global asset volatility.

Price in the short term can not form a new trend, the situation after the medium-term shock is not clear, long - term continued bullish.

The short-term market heat has subsided a bit, but it could easily be replaced by more enthusiasm at any moment.

To regain the upward movement of prices, an obvious upward pattern is needed to follow them better, which requires more patience than the market.

At this stage, the change ratio of Bitcoin per unit time is smaller than that of Ethereum, and given the continuation of the Defi concept, the subsequent medium-term trend of the market

The potential led by Ethereum is likely to be greater.

We need to keep an eye on ETHlayer2 landing and application, and keep an eye on the Defi concept reburning and hot spot conversion.

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