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Mining "halving" bureau of life and death: epidemic or overdraft halving market, 2020 industry inflection point will come

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In 2020, both the mining sector and the digital currency industry as a whole are showing an inflection point. From mining machinery manufacturers, mining machinery dealers, mining pools to miners, mine owners, the whole chain of mining industry, will face

Article title: "mining bureau of life and death: epidemic or advance overdraft market halved, 2020 will usher in the industry turning point"
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矿业生死局：疫情或提前透支减半行情，2020 将迎来行业拐点

In the history of bitcoin, 2020 is bound to be a crucial year.

In may, bitcoin production will halve for the third time. And the sudden outbreak of the new crown pneumonia at the beginning of the year, like a black swan flying out of the sky, to the market brought a new uncertainty.

Miners have a word for this: "unexpected."

Because of the outbreak, some mines have been asked to stop production, miners can not buy mining machines, and mining enterprises can not produce.

Faced with big fluctuations in the bitcoin market, they are anxious, but helpless.

For many people across the mining industry, this extraordinary year 2020 could be a year of life and death...

01 overdraft half quotation?

Entering the year 2020, the digital currency market ushered in the Indian New Year, and the price of bitcoin also broke ten thousand for many times.

According to CoinMarketCap, the price of bitcoin fell back to $6,871 on January 3, then started its upward path, and broke through $7,000 and $8,000 respectively on January 4 and 8.

On February 9, the price of bitcoin passed the $10,000 mark. Driven by the rise of bitcoin, prices of mainstream currencies such as ethereum and BCH have soared.

Data from CoinMarketCap showed the overall market value of digital currencies surged 50 percent on January 3 solstice and February 18.

Why the sudden surge in digital money markets in early 2020?

Many believe this is the result of a quadrennial halving of bitcoin production on top of the new coronavirus epidemic.

This small market benefited from the sudden outbreak of the disease, which prompted some over-the-counter funds to enter the currency market out of a risk-averse mentality.

The disease has also affected the mining industry, affecting the currency market.

In early February, the company's CEO, jol kong, posted on weibo that conditions at the mine were so bad that one of its mines in xinjiang was ordered to stop production.

矿业生死局：疫情或提前透支减半行情，2020 将迎来行业拐点

Jojo kong on twitter

He said the mine was not the only one, but that other companies in the industrial park where the mine is located had been ordered to shut down.

"This is an isolated case in the mining world." "Right now, the main impact of the outbreak is logistics," wu di, a miner, told a blockchain journal.

Due to the need of epidemic prevention and control, many places have adopted road closure measures to control the flow of people. But the "hard core road closure" has blocked the flow of supplies -- media reports say hens have even starved to death at a chicken farm in henan province because of feed shortages.

Something similar is happening in the mining industry. Logistics difficulties, mining machine transport, the mine can not be deployed. Many investors who want to enter the mine have to buy COINS in the secondary market, pushing up the price.

So, can epidemic overdraft halve quotation?

"This possibility cannot be ruled out, because the mining plant has not resumed work, unable to produce the machine, the new computing power will be affected." Yu Yang, COO of the mining and ocean association, agreed.

But others disagree. "Halving the market is not a wave of gone, but from halving before to halving after, there is probably about 10 months of long-term market. "Said a mine owner.

In his view, investors who can't buy miners to buy COINS will choose not to sell them even if they go to mine. Bitcoin's liquidity would simply lock up, pushing up the price of the currency.

02 old mining machine spring

While opinions vary on the impact of the outbreak on currency prices, almost everyone in the mining community agrees that the outbreak has had an impact on mining.

The hardest hit, when huaqiangbei mining machinery dealers.

Huaqiang north electronic market is the largest mining machine distribution center in China. Once upon a time, 70% of the world's mining machines were sent to mines around the world through here.

"The huaqiangbei electronic market has been delayed twice due to the outbreak, and many people have gone to sell masks." Huaqiang north seg electronics market mining machine sales personnel xiao hu told a block chain.

矿业生死局：疫情或提前透支减半行情，2020 将迎来行业拐点

Shenzhen huaqiang north major electronic market postponement notice, figure source: 36Kr

Most of the major electronic markets in huaqiang north, which were scheduled to open on February 18, have been postponed again, with some markets postponed to March 6 or 7, according to notices circulating on the Internet.

"Before the bitcoin boom, the whole of huaqiangbei was people buying mining machines." Hu said that the market could not be opened, so many miners dealers suffered heavy losses.

Miner dealers are out of business and miners can't buy miners.

"For miners, the most immediate impact of the outbreak is that new machinery cannot come in and machinery that needs to be repaired cannot go out." Miner cC tells a block chain.

Mining machine manufacturers stop production, dealers stop work, logistics shutdowns, miners helplessly watching the currency price rise, but can only worry.

"In order to solve the problem of insufficient mining machine, even the old mining machine ant L3+ has been rebooted." CC said.

Ant L3+, a litecoin miner launched by bitland in March 2017. A year ago, it was sold as scrap metal. Now, with the currency market recovering, the L3+ is back.

Fishpond data show that by February 17, 2020, an ant L3+ miner can earn 2.49 yuan per day based on electricity charges of 0.38 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

The increase of daily earnings of mining machine directly pushed up the market price of second-hand mining machine.

"Used to cost only 150 yuan, but now it's over 400 yuan." Wu told a book of blockchain.

In the same way, once on the verge of elimination of a generation of machine king - ant mining machine S9, also become again in demand.

"High price recovery second-hand mining machine, the money is ready, cash transactions, door-to-door." In a number of mining circle communication groups, people continue to send such ads.

"Recently, 13.5t S9 ants have been sold for more than 500 yuan." "You know, at the end of last year, the S9 was only worth more than 300," wu told blockchain.

Fishpond data shows that by February 17, 2020, the daily revenue of an ant S9 miner is 2.11 yuan, based on electricity charges of 0.38 yuan per kilowatt-hour.

That means miners who bought the S9 in late 2019 will get their money back in six months.

"Based on current currency prices and economic growth rates, the S9 is expected to last until the end of the wet season in 2020." Mr Wu said.

Miners can't buy new machines, and miners are struggling to meet the deadline for new mines.

Many new mines have been shut down by the outbreak. Faced with this wave of prices, the mine owners and miners have no choice but to miss it.

"There are people who buy COINS directly in the secondary market, and there are people who are going to buy the mines directly in a package and take the mines and the machines together." Mr Wu said.

Special period, mining machine manufacturers introduced a new mining machine sales model - cutting power.

Located in the epicenter of the outbreak wuhan mining machine manufacturer core technology, the recent launch of the "full currency live sales model."

In this mode, customers can place orders remotely, pay a deposit to lock up the running machine, pay full payment to cut the calculation force, and transfer the revenue of the machine to the customer's bitcoin wallet.

"This is equivalent to the core of their own mining machine trusteeship." Mr Wu said.

03 future

The outbreak hit in early 2020, just as bitcoin production was about to halve. For the mining industry as a whole, this is both an opportunity and a challenge.

For many miners, the halving of bitcoin production coincided with the replacement of new and old miners. Miners face a life-and-death choice between 7nm and 16nm.

"At present, there are about 100E calculating forces in the whole network, among which 35-40e calculating forces come from the mining machines in S9 era. The first wet period after halving is over, that is, this November, these mining machines will basically die." Miner Chen ping told a block chain.

For miners, the sooner they complete the replacement of machinery, the more powerful they will be in control of their fate.

On the other hand, the production capacity of mining machines in the mining circle will also be restricted by the total output capacity of the chip industry. In 2020, the outbreak of 5G May bring a new wave of replacement, and mobile phone chips will also squeeze the capacity of miner chips.

"Handset makers have taken chip capacity away from miners, and as a result, new miners have lost capacity and prices have gone up." Mr. Zhao, the miner, said.

As a result,For miners, 2020 is a make-or-break year -- they can only survive if they have enough money.

矿业生死局：疫情或提前透支减半行情，2020 将迎来行业拐点

"That's why miners are scrambling to go public in 2019." "Mr. Zhao said.

On January 2, jia nan yun zhi published an open letter. In the letter, nan geng zhang, CEO of jianan yunzhi, said the company will continue to launch AI products and build a platform business model based on hardware products. It plans to use core hardware including blockchain and AI chips to create MaaS and SaaS platforms.

"From jia nan's open letter,Developing a new profit model is the most urgent need of mining machine manufacturers."Zhao told a block chain.

By 2020, the mining pool and the mining machine service providers, affected by the halving of bitcoin production, also face a life or death test.

"Halving the impact on the pool is also relatively large." Fishpond co-founder shenyu recently said in a media event.

He points out that the pit's business model is to provide miners with stable mining services for a fixed percentage of the service fee. As the amount of bitcoin mined is cut in half, the pool's absolute profits will also be halved.

But the cost of the pool has not changed. Because of the high technical requirements of the mine pool, it is necessary to purchase stable servers, bandwidth and technical personnel.

In 2020, both the mining sector and the digital currency industry as a whole are showing an inflection point.

In 2020, the whole chain of mining industry, from mining machinery manufacturers, mining machinery dealers, mining pools to miners and mine owners, will face unprecedented challenges.

Tension is already in the air as a new round of reshuffling approaches.

The loser will be out, and the survivor will have the last laugh.

* some of the interviewees were pseudonyms.

Source:weixin.qq.com

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