BlockBeats news, October 14th, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is currently reported at 76.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 23.8%.
BlockBeats news, October 13: Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for "The Big Short," said today via his Substack account that the U.S. stock market may be only 0 to 9 months away from a major top, and stated that "the final months of a bull market can be extremely wild." According to his disclosure, his current short positions are mainly concentrated in put options on the Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) and the Semiconductor ETF (SMH), both expiring in spring 2027 with strike prices about 20% below current levels.
In addition, Burry is still short Oracle (ORCL), MetLife (MET), Caterpillar (CAT), and Palantir (PLTR). He believes the current market may be nearing the late stage of this bull cycle, but also expects that before a major top appears, the market could still see significant volatility.
BlockBeats news, October 13: Renowned trader Killa posted that if Bitcoin is to evolve according to the current trend structure, it needs to form a higher low above $75,500, and ideally should also hold the low near $80,000. This is similar to the 2023 trend: at that time, Bitcoin formed a higher high on the weekly chart, then pulled back and held the original range. This may explain why recent low-timeframe price action seems so prone to triggering stop losses, with aggressive moves and traces of algorithmic trading. Bitcoin once reclaimed internal structure in the $82,000 range, then pulled back, broke below structure again, and later reclaimed it once more. The entire market seems to be deliberately luring traders into entering positions.
It must be admitted that the initial pullback to the $81,000 range did not look ideal from a structural perspective. But at that time, a large number of shorts concentrated their entries at lower levels, which may explain the subsequent price reaction. Another detail worth noting is that during Bitcoin's drop from $84,100 to $81,000, only about $300 million in long positions were liquidated; whereas during the previous drop from $86,800 to $80,600, long liquidations exceeded $2 billion. The notable decline in long liquidation scale indicates that the current market may be less dependent on long positions than before.
The current market is quite delicate. Bitcoin needs to form a higher low at the current position and launch a new round of upside from there; otherwise, this pullback may bring the price below $80,000. For now, the so-called "crash protection team" is doing a good job of maintaining prices, but at the same time is constantly disrupting the internal oscillation range on low timeframes.
BlockBeats news, October 13th, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, at the U.S. stock market open, the Dow rose 0.47%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.14%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.38%.
The storage sector opened significantly lower, with Western Digital (WDC.O) and Seagate Technology (STX.O) plunging over 7%, SK Hynix (SKHY.O) and Micron Technology (MU.O) dropping over 5%, and SanDisk (SNDK.O) falling 4.6%.
BlockBeats news, October 13, according to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai (@ai_9684xtpa) monitoring, "Machi Big Brother" Huang Licheng's address has accumulated a loss of $11.27 million in 7 days, and has reduced positions twice today, with actual losses of $1.01 million and $12,000 respectively.
He is currently still long 7,150 ETH (approximately $17.86 million) with 25x leverage, with a liquidation price of $2,472.78, and the current price is only $26.52 away from the liquidation price. On October 5, his profit was still as high as $5.46 million, and now the account only has $562,000 left.
BlockBeats news, October 13: Key pre-market news for US stocks on Tuesday is as follows:
1. ChangXin Memory Technologies recently disclosed that it has made key progress on a memory chip architecture also being pursued by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix;
2. A latest Morgan Stanley report points out that Samsung and SK Hynix currently have forward P/E ratios of only about 3 to 4 times, which looks cheap but may hide a valuation trap at the cycle top. Morgan Stanley believes that the stronger the fundamentals of the memory industry, the more easily the risk of a cycle top is underestimated, and high prosperity may not translate into sustained excess returns;
3. JPMorgan Chase released its third-quarter earnings report, with adjusted revenue of $50.91 billion, versus market expectations of $51.37 billion. Third-quarter earnings per share were $5.57, and third-quarter FICC sales and trading revenue was $5.37 billion, versus expectations of $6 billion;
4. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) third-quarter equities sales and trading revenue was $6.44 billion, versus expectations of $5.09 billion. Third-quarter fixed income, currency and commodities sales and trading revenue was $3.47 billion, versus expectations of $3.72 billion;
5. Citigroup Q3 revenue was $23.85 billion, versus market expectations of $23.72 billion. Third-quarter fixed income, currency and commodities sales and trading revenue was $4.39 billion, versus expectations of $4.26 billion. Third-quarter equities sales and trading revenue was $1.73 billion, versus expectations of $1.78 billion;
6. BlackRock's investment research institute adjusted its US asset allocation, upgrading short-term US Treasuries to overweight, raising long-term US Treasuries from underweight to neutral, ending nearly six years of underweight stance on US Treasuries, while the institution downgraded US equities from overweight to neutral;
7. Yesterday, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million, and spot Ethereum ETFs saw net outflows of $85.4 million.
BlockBeats news, October 13, according to Onchain Lens monitoring, in the past hour, BlackRock ETF wallets transferred approximately $202.54 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to Coinbase Prime, including 860.393 BTC (worth about $71.54 million) and 52,488 ETH (worth about $131 million).
BlockBeats news, October 13: Binance co-founder Yi He posted that Binance AI is now fully launched, welcomes feedback, and will continue to optimize and iterate.
