Trump buys $8 billion in strait passage rights, probability of Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting until December soars

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Israel Hayom reported that when Trump meets the Qatari Prime Minister in Washington that day, the Prime Minister will bring a proposal reportedly already approved by Iran: reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its maritime and economic blockade on Iran and unfreezing approximately $8 billion in Iranian funds held in Qatar; Iran, in turn, would stop attacking ships and oil tankers of Gulf states. The report also said Iran appears to have abandoned its demand to control the strait and charge tolls on passing vessels, but is still unwilling to discuss its nuclear program or even to signal the start of nuclear negotiations.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Israel-Iran ceasefire lasting until December" rose from a low of about 42% on the 4th to the current 84%.

Votei14Voude22 bought $1.5k of "Yes" on "ceasefire will last until November 22" (1.8k shares, 1.35% of the position, average price 0.8499). This account has a 75.8% win rate across 233 markets traded in the geopolitics sector, with PnL +$791.6k and ROI +16.4%.

Sources said Trump himself remains skeptical but agreed to accelerate negotiations as advocated by Vance, partly because of Republican midterm election losses. Opposition came from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth; one of them warned that reaching such a deal now "would save the Iranian regime at the last minute."