Bitunix Analyst: NFP Reheats Tightening Bets — AI Leader’s National Security Risk Adds New Market Variables

BlockBeats news, November 9—US October Non-Farm Payrolls added 165,000 jobs, far above the market』s 65,000 expectation. Unemployment fell to 4.1%, and August and September data were revised up by a combined 84,000—showing that the labor market has been materially more resilient than previously estimated. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, meaning wage growth has yet to cool meaningfully. At the same time, the number of people forced into part-time work for economic reasons rose 339,000—indicating that while the labor market is firm, job quality and structure remain uneven.

Following the release, market pricing for a 25-basis-point Fed hike in December rose to around 80%, shifting the policy focus back to inflation control. That said, a single month』s data still requires further confirmation, and the November 10 CPI release will be the next critical test. Should prices also come in strong, tightening expectations could consolidate further.

On the political side, another check has emerged. With the Senate in Democratic hands, personnel nomination vetting authority will be stronger—meaning even if Warsh ultimately takes the Fed chair, he may not be able to easily assemble a core team supporting his reform direction. This means the White House』s ability to shape monetary policy is constrained, but it does not mean rates will necessarily loosen—the actual path will still depend on inflation, employment, and the FOMC』s internal consensus.

Separately, NVIDIA』s board has launched an independent investigation following reports that founder Jensen Huang may be a target of foreign intelligence operations. There is currently no evidence that company secrets or national security information have been leaked, and the board has publicly stated its support for Huang to continue leading the company. The incident has brought the governance and national security risks facing AI leaders into focus. On balance, strong employment is pushing up rate expectations, political checks are constraining Fed personnel changes, and non-financial risk in the AI industry is gradually surfacing—the dollar, bond yields, and tech-stock valuations will all continue to be shaped by multiple forces.