Analysis: Real orders for memory chips from 2027 to 2028 far exceed supply capacity, and the impact of Democratic policies is unlikely to change the supply-demand landscape.

BlockBeats news, November 5 — South Korean securities firm Meritz Securities pointed out that memory chip manufacturers are currently receiving orders for 2027 to 2028 that far exceed production capacity. Even if the U.S. Democratic Party gains an advantage in the midterm elections, leading to delays or adjustments in some data center projects, it is unlikely to fundamentally change the memory chip supply shortage situation.

Meritz stated that this year the memory chip order fulfillment rate (the ratio of suppliable capacity to order volume) has remained at a low level of 80% to 85%, driving a sharp increase in memory chip prices. It is expected that the supply-demand gap will further widen in 2027, and the order fulfillment rate may drop to about 80%.

In addition, during OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's recent visit to South Korea, he requested SK hynix and Samsung Electronics to provide customized memory products such as HBM for 2027 to 2030, with demand even exceeding the suppliable capacity of both companies.

In response, community user Teng Yan added that Samsung stated during a conference call with Meritz on October 29 that 10 major customers have signed multi-year memory supply agreements, and an equal number of customers are in negotiations. Memory demand customers have also expanded from cloud service giants and AI server manufacturers to more sectors. Therefore, the slowdown in U.S. data center approvals will only affect some orders and is unlikely to change the overall tight supply-demand situation.