Gold price posts worst October since 2008; one account bets $184,000 on gold price trajectory for the year.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, COMEX gold (GC) futures closed at $4,186.7/oz on September 30, touched a monthly high of $4,259/oz on October 2, and then continued to decline, closing at $3,898.9/oz on October 30, the lowest close since 2026, down 6.87% for the month. This was gold's worst October performance since 2008, with a cumulative decline of 10.2% year to date.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the "No" probability for "Will gold (GC) intraday high reach $6,000 by the end of December?" is 97.9%.

ronm238 bought $184,000 predicting "No" on "Will gold (GC) intraday high reach $6,000 by the end of December?" This account has a 75% win rate across 12 markets in the gold sector, with PnL +$5,100 and ROI +6.6%. The amount invested in this trade was 28.27 times its average investment in this sector.

Central banks around the world are still buying gold. The People's Bank of China increased its gold holdings by 23.0 tonnes in September, while the National Bank of Poland added 24.9 tonnes. Goldman Sachs on September 18 maintained its end-2027 target price of $5,400 but lowered its end-2026 fair value from $4,900 to $4,650, citing that rate hikes would weigh on gold prices by suppressing ETF demand, although central bank gold purchases exceeded expectations and demand for call options remained resilient.