Two accounts in the coin price prediction section that have doubled their principal are optimistic about BTC's trend after the election.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, with only 1 day left until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, BTC's recent price is still hovering around $78k. TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg believes that a Democratic sweep of both chambers would be most unfavorable for BTC and the crypto industry; if Democrats take the House and Republicans hold the Senate, it would be somewhat better for BTC; a Republican sweep would be most favorable, but is the least likely.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Bitcoin price above $80k on November 5" is 32%. The probability of "Bitcoin rising to $90k in November" is 18.5%.

d33z0 bought $2.3k of "Yes" on "Will Bitcoin price be above $80k on November 5?" This account has a 57.7% win rate across 26 markets in the BTC sector, with PnL +$10.5k and ROI +102.5%. This trade's input was 5.8x its average input in this sector.
0x6a80 bought $1.0k of "Yes" on "Will Bitcoin rise to $90k in November?" This account has a 54.5% win rate across 11 markets in the monthly sector, with PnL +$13.4k and ROI +134.5%. This trade's input was 1.12x its average input in this sector.

According to a TD Cowen report, the crypto industry has spent approximately $176M across more than 100 elections. After the CLARITY Act was blocked in a Senate procedural vote in mid-September, crypto super PAC Fairshake announced $30M in spending to oppose former Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown in the Ohio Senate race, where he is challenging incumbent Republican Senator Husted.

Analysts' views on post-election price action are not unanimous. 10x Research's Markus Thielen wrote on October 9: "Near-term events like the midterm elections will have a big impact on short-term price action, while medium-term trends are still determined by broader fundamentals." Independent analyst Benjamin Cowen noted on October 30 that after the 2014, 2018, and 2022 midterm elections, BTC saw cycle lows shortly thereafter. He laid out two possibilities: one is a rapid decline with a bottom before the election; the other is a rebound first near the $73k to $77k support band, then a final low after the election. He emphasized that it is impossible to determine which path will play out.