Expectations of a Democratic "sweep" are heating up: Midterm elections will reassess the crude oil premium—which sectors are ushering in "policy dividends"?

BlockBeats news, October 30 — With only days left until the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, market expectations regarding congressional control are shifting. A Democratic recapture of the House is now a high-probability scenario, while Senate races are tighter than a month ago, and the odds of Democrats winning both chambers have also risen.

This election will not only determine congressional seats but will also reshape the policy environment for the Trump administration over the next two years: whether Congress can restrict military action against Iran, how war funding and the defense budget will be adjusted, how tariff policies will continue, what regulatory conditions AI data centers will face, and the uncertainty surrounding government funding and debt ceiling negotiations in 2027.

Different parties controlling Congress will trigger differentiated pricing across asset classes. Continued Republican control of Congress would favor extending tax cuts, deregulation, traditional energy development, and military policy; more Democratic seats could strengthen scrutiny of war funding, tech giants, financial institutions, and the healthcare industry, while pushing clean energy and healthcare policies. Crude oil, gold, U.S. Treasuries, the dollar, as well as the tech, storage, defense, financial, and healthcare sectors, all have distinctly different policy transmission paths.