US midterm elections approach: Republican Senate advantage shrinks, Trump takes defensive stance

BlockBeats news, October 24 - According to Bloomberg, the Democratic Party's Senate battleground map in the midterm elections is expanding, while Republicans are strengthening their defense in traditionally advantageous states. With less than two weeks until the November 3 voting day, Trump is traveling to Republican strongholds such as South Carolina and Mississippi to campaign, and related groups are also investing funds in deep-red states like Texas. Polls and early voting signs show that the momentum favors the Democrats, but the party still needs a net gain of 4 seats to retake control of the Senate.

According to a Democratic person involved in the Senate race, in early 2025, Democrats only regarded North Carolina and Maine as realistic seat-flipping opportunities; later they added Ohio and Alaska, and recently listed Texas, Iowa, and Kansas as potential targets. Republican insiders regard Iowa, Ohio, and Alaska as "red wall" states that must be held; Trump won these states two years ago by double-digit margins.

The cost of living, dissatisfaction with the war with Iran, and negative evaluations of Trump's leadership performance are dragging down Republican candidates. A recent New York Times poll shows that among likely voters, 36% approve of Trump's leadership performance and 59% disapprove; 75% rate the U.S. economic situation as fair or poor.

Republicans are relying on hundreds of millions of dollars in funding from Musk, Trump super PACs, and Republican committees to maintain their defense line. A Republican consultant interviewed believes that the party's chance of retaining Senate control is still more than half, but also admits that in the current political environment, the effect of campaign spending has diminishing marginal returns.

Democratic strategists also warn that retaking the Senate remains difficult because they must win in states Trump won easily. David Axelrod said that if the Democratic election wave is strong enough to break through the Republicans' funding and television advertising defense line, they may reach 53 to 54 seats; if the wave is weaker, reaching 51 seats may still be difficult.