This week's macro highlights review: Rising risk of escalation in US-Iran conflict, AI financing concerns trigger US stock market selloff

BlockBeats news, October 24 — This week, global markets focused on the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, AI capital expenditure and financing risks, and the US midterm elections. A review of macro highlights follows:

Trump threatens to strike Iran again, raising the risk of escalation in the Middle East

Trump said he does not rule out launching another small-scale "Epic Fury" operation, while also saying the war could end soon and claiming the US could seize all of Iran's oil. A US intelligence memo warned that Iran's assassination plot against US officials overseas has entered an advanced stage. Iran warned that if the US and Israel resume attacks, retaliation could expand to US military bases in the Gulf region, energy facilities, and undersea communications cables.

Meta's free cash flow turns negative, AI spending triggers US stock selloff

Meta's third-quarter revenue rose 26% year-over-year to $64.6 billion, but free cash flow turned negative at $2.12 billion, marking its first quarterly cash burn in more than a decade. The company adjusted its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $135 billion to $145 billion. After the earnings release, Meta shares fell as much as 8%, and AI-related stocks such as Nvidia and CoreWeave came under pressure in tandem, as investors began reassessing the return cycle and financing costs of AI infrastructure investment.

SpaceX revenue surges 161%, expectations of a merger with Tesla heat up

SpaceX's third-quarter revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161% year-over-year, with net profit of $4.4 billion, of which AI infrastructure business revenue was about $7.56 billion, making it the company's largest business segment. The company expects first-quarter 2027 revenue to reach $33 billion to $37 billion. Meanwhile, SpaceX and Tesla are said to have set up a special committee to study a merger plan, with a potential transaction size of about $3.5 trillion. Musk publicly said the merger has multiple advantages, but related-party transactions, shareholder review, and corporate governance remain major obstacles.

Trump increases midterm election spending, economic approval rating falls to 34%

The Trump camp is courting voters through policies such as agricultural aid and health insurance refunds, and increasing funding for Republican candidates. MAGA Inc. has invested nearly $277 million in Republican candidates since September. A CNBC survey shows that approval of Trump's economic policies has fallen to 34%, with 65% of respondents saying they disapprove, and the cost of living remains voters' main concern. Republican candidates face the dilemma of needing Trump to mobilize the base while keeping their distance from some controversial policies.

Anthropic races toward IPO, compute commitments could reach as high as $750 billion

According to a draft IPO prospectus, Anthropic generated about $16.3 billion in revenue in the first half of this year, far above the $1.1 billion in the same period last year, but compute and infrastructure spending during the same period approached $9 billion. The company has already committed to roughly $450 billion in cloud computing contracts with terms of seven to ten years, and total future infrastructure commitments exceed $600 billion; if all projects under negotiation materialize, that could reach about $750 billion. The coexistence of rapid growth and massive compute investment makes its IPO an important case for the market to test AI business models and returns on capital.

AI bubble debate heats up, hedge funds accelerate tech stock selling

The founder of Citadel Securities warned that the current AI market may be in a bubble; Goldman Sachs noted that hedge funds are cutting tech stock holdings at the fastest pace in at least a decade. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley believes the U.S. stock market pullback may be nearing its end, while JPMorgan said that if bond yields stabilize, it would support the stock market. Long-term AI demand remains favored, but investors are shifting from chasing growth to focusing on cash flow, debt costs and return on capital.

The core change in this week's market is: geopolitical risk is pushing up energy prices, while AI capital expenditure and financing pressure are weakening risk appetite for tech stocks. Before the U.S.-Iran situation, the U.S. midterm elections and AI companies' financing progress become clear, crude oil, bond yields and earnings reports from large tech companies will remain important variables affecting global markets.