CoinShares: Bitcoin Shows Resilience, but US Inflation Pressures Still Limit Market Upside Potential
BlockBeats news, October 23 - CoinShares released a report stating that Bitcoin showed relative resilience this week amid renewed volatility in risk asset markets, primarily supported by a recovery in spot buying, improved stock market sentiment, and some short covering. Overall, the market is gradually reducing its enthusiasm for AI-themed narratives and shifting greater attention to whether corporate earnings can meet expectations. Lackluster earnings from some U.S. companies triggered sharp stock price swings, and Bitcoin was also affected to some extent but still demonstrated strong resilience overall. Meanwhile, U.S. macroeconomic signals remain mixed, with the housing market continuing to weaken.
On interest rates, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its October 28 policy meeting. Expectations for another Fed rate hike in December remain elevated, with the related probability close to 83%. Housing market weakness has provided the Fed with some room to hold off on raising rates, but last week's higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data mean inflation remains a key factor limiting any policy pivot. If the Fed unexpectedly raises rates next week, it could trigger more pronounced financial market volatility by exceeding market expectations; by contrast, keeping rates unchanged while continuing to signal a hawkish stance would be more easily absorbed by the market.
Overall, the market remains in a state where bullish and bearish factors are intertwined. Improved spot demand, Bitcoin's increased ability to withstand stock market volatility, and cooling in the housing market all provide some support; however, inflationary pressure has not yet subsided, limiting the Fed's room to ease policy. Bitcoin's subsequent trajectory is expected to remain highly sensitive to rate expectations and the overall liquidity environment, with the importance of single-sector or single-market catalysts being relatively limited.
