Texas Senate race has burned through $500 million, with Musk alone pouring in $200 million.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, Reuters citing ad monitoring reports that total ad spending in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race has exceeded $500M, on track to become the most expensive Senate election in history. The most prominent individual donor is Musk—media and campaign figures put his total Texas election spending at nearly $190M—with midterm-related donations of about $276M since July, approaching his roughly $290M for the entire 2024 cycle.

On the Democratic side, the largest Democratic-aligned outside groups have spent a combined total of about $45M. Even so, the current Polymarket probability of "Republicans win the Texas U.S. Senate election" is only 34%. Beyond Texas, Musk's America PAC spending in other major Senate battlegrounds is approximately: Ohio about $9.4M, Michigan about $8.6M, Iowa about $3.1M, Maine about $2.1M, Alaska about $1.0M, and New Hampshire about $0.9–1.0M.

defillama7 bought $108k on the view that Republicans cannot win. This account's win rate across 4 markets in the Texas Senate section is 100%, with PnL +$11.7k and ROI +66.4%; in the U.S. election section, its win rate across 21 markets is 81%, with PnL +$55k and ROI +28.2%.

Theo Elections statistics as of October 22 show about 2.37 million ballots have been cast in Texas; among in-person votes, only Democratic primary voters account for about 35.9% and only Republican primary voters about 35.0%. CBS Texas, citing VoteHub, reports about 1.5 million ballots in the first two days of early voting, with the electorate about 8 to 10 percentage points more Democratic-leaning than the same period in 2024.