Multiple bearish factors hit global risk assets, with analysts consensus that Bitcoin may stabilize and find support at $80,000.

BlockBeats news, October 22: Today, global risk assets experienced a broad decline. South Korea's KOSPI closed down 3.52%, led by SK Hynix; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 5%, with Zhipu and MINIMAX both dropping more than 5%.

In US pre-market trading, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.7%, Tesla dropped about 5%, semiconductor stocks broadly declined, IBM fell about 5%, Intel fell about 5%, Micron Technology fell about 3%, and Nvidia fell about 2%. Optical communication stocks broadly declined, with Marvell Technology down about 5%.

On the news front, according to US officials, the US and Israeli militaries have formulated specific plans to launch another military strike on Iran after the US midterm elections end, and the market is repricing expectations for another escalation of US-Iran conflict. France, meanwhile, is facing severe crises on both the political and economic fronts: on one hand, domestic unrest is worsening; on the other, the yield on French 10-year government bonds has surpassed US Treasuries for the first time in 13 years, reflecting growing investor concerns over France's continuously deteriorating fiscal situation and increasing debt burden.

Stimulated by the above news, in the crypto market, Bitcoin failed to break $85,000 last night and has since moved lower, now falling below $82,000. According to past bull-bear cycles, Bitcoin has entered a new cyclical bull market, yet the market has still not improved. As for when Bitcoin will bottom, BlockBeats has compiled analysts' views as follows:

Yi Lihua believes that as the US midterm elections approach, Trump faces an unfavorable situation, and market volatility will expand. However, the judgment on the crypto bull market trend remains unchanged, and the market is expected to rebound quickly after the decline is complete and start a new rally.

Well-known trader Killa recently released a video analysis summarizing the timing relationship between midterm elections and Bitcoin bottoms (2014: bottom about 70 days after the midterm elections. 2018: bottom about 40-44 days later. 2022: bottom almost during the midterm elections.). He believes that before the US midterm elections on November 3 this year, Bitcoin may form a weekly-level bottom, with the low possibly above $80,000.

glassnode reached a similar conclusion through coin distribution analysis, believing that Bitcoin is constrained within a "box" of $80,000 to $87,000. Below the "box," buyers are re-accumulating near $80,000 based on ETF and Treasury cost bases (though on a smaller scale than the peak). Investors now need to pay attention to recent major catalyst events, including the Fed's interest rate decision on October 28, rising oil prices and yields, and a rebound in inflation expectations.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of LTC.TOP mining pool, updated his trading record this morning, stating that he had shorted Bitcoin with 100% of his position at $84,650. (Offset by a 100% spot ETH position, equivalent to being overall flat.) He believes the market may subsequently move to sweep long liquidity in Bitcoin between $79,000 and $79,700, and will consider a stop-loss if the price breaks above $85,500.

In summary, under multiple uncertain conditions, the current market is already on edge, with investors seemingly trading ahead of expectations for a US-Iran conflict and the midterm elections. In this environment, sharp two-way volatility in the market is inevitable.