Nomura warns AI credit risk is approaching dot-com bubble and Lehman crisis levels, with oil prices becoming a key variable.

BlockBeats news, October 22 — Nomura Securities strategist Naka Matsuzawa warned in a report released today that current credit risks among U.S. technology companies and sovereign credit pressures in France share similarities with the market environment before the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the Lehman crisis in 2008. His "decade credit cycle" framework shows that roughly 1 to 2 years after the second round of credit shocks in history, a third round of shocks that could trigger an economic recession often emerges.

The report points out that the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 LTCM crisis, as well as the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis and the Bear Stearns crisis, all belonged to the second round of shocks; subsequently, the dot-com bubble burst and the Lehman crisis occurred, respectively. Previously, the Federal Reserve was able to ease credit pressures by pausing rate hikes or cutting rates, but current inflation and rising oil prices may limit its policy space.

Nomura believes that oil price trends will determine whether risks escalate further. If oil price increases are mainly driven by economic overheating, central banks will face a stagflation dilemma in which inflation and credit risks coexist, making it difficult to respond to the crisis through rate cuts; if the increases are mainly driven by geopolitical factors, the Federal Reserve may still be able to adjust policy to prevent localized credit shocks from evolving into a systemic crisis.

The report also notes that U.S. technology company CDS spreads have narrowed somewhat, but the spread between French and German government bonds has continued to widen, reflecting that market credit pressures have not yet subsided.