Smart money with a 70% win rate in price predictions is bullish on ETH for the year, currently sitting on a loss of over 50%.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "ETH standing above $3.5k within the year" is about 14.5%. En11006 is the account holding the most "Yes" in this market, currently holding 5 positions all betting on ETH rising this month or within the year, with a total investment of about $105.3k, and a current unrealized loss of about $60.1k, close to 57%.

En11006 bought $34.8k of "Yes", with its held shares accounting for 22.4% of the market's total. This account has participated in 35 markets in the sector when the price reached the sector, with a win rate of 68.6%, PnL +$135.2k, and ROI +28.6%. The investment in this trade is 2.57 times its average investment in markets in this sector.

On the news front, institutions are still adding positions. BitMine announced on October 19 that it bought 12,535 ETH, bringing its total holdings to about 6.04 million ETH, accounting for about 4.9% of ETH's total supply, of which about 86.5% has already been staked. Tom Lee said on September 30 at Korea Blockchain Week that ETH "will be far above $10k" in the next 12 months; on October 9 at Token 2049, he changed his year-end target to "above $5k".

On October 19, JPMorgan's blockchain unit Kinexys announced that the U.S. dollar deposit token JPM Coin (ticker JPMD) was officially launched on the Ethereum mainnet, targeting reviewed institutional clients. Institutions can use JPMD for round-the-clock peer-to-peer transfers and settlements on-chain, and can also use it as collateral, no longer subject to the constraints of traditional bank business hours.