Glassnode: Bitcoin is in a strong "box" constraint, and the market will focus on important catalyst events.

BlockBeats news, October 22 - Glassnode released its weekly market report stating that Bitcoin is constrained within a "box" range of $80,000 to $87,000. Daily closes had previously stood above approximately $87,500, and recent ETF inflows accompanied by increased trading volume indicate demand absorbing overhead supply; if price falls below $80,000, ETF and treasury average holders would enter losses, potentially testing down toward the True Market Mean.

Below the "box," buyers are re-accumulating around $80,000 based on ETF and Treasury cost basis (though at a smaller scale than the peak). Above the "box," the 6-12 month buyer cost basis is approximately $86,700, compounded by order book sell walls and liquidation clusters (around $85,000 and $87,000). A breakout of this range could accelerate but would encounter selling pressure.

Glassnode believes investors should currently focus on near-term major catalyst events, including the Federal Reserve's October 28 interest rate decision, rising oil prices and yields, and rebounding inflation expectations. On the other hand, MSCI will announce its index review list on November 11 (effective November 30), with Strategy and others potentially being removed, which could impact related stocks and Bitcoin buying.