US envoy频繁engages with Russia and Ukraine; two highly profitable accounts in the Russia-Ukraine sector make a consistent judgment.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 21, U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff met with Putin in St. Petersburg, marking the first visit by a U.S. special envoy to Russia since September 5. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov previously stated that Russia would listen to the U.S. proposal but would not make any political concessions. According to Russian media reports, relayed via X, Witkoff said "there is already a basis for reaching a ceasefire" and submitted a new proposal, while Putin expressed a desire to restore economic relations with the U.S. and offered to supply fertilizer to the United States.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "Russia and Ukraine reaching a ceasefire agreement within this year" is 18.5%. Two accounts that successfully predicted the brief ceasefire in May of this year have made a consistent judgment on when the two countries will reach another ceasefire agreement: