SpaceX and Tesla merger rumors heat up, Wall Street calculates a $480 per share deal proposal.

BlockBeats news, October 20 — As SpaceX and Tesla prepare to release their third-quarter earnings reports, Wall Street is intensifying its assessment of the valuation and financing arrangements for a potential merger between the two companies. However, Musk and the companies involved have not yet officially announced any merger plans.

Barclays analysts expect the two sides may announce a deal before the end of this year. If the merger is structured as an all-stock transaction, Musk could hold approximately 37% equity and about 56% voting power in the combined company. RBC analysts proposed a hypothetical transaction price of $480 per share, based on which existing SpaceX shareholders could hold approximately 52% of the combined company. None of these analyses indicate that actual transaction arrangements are known.

The AI business is seen as the primary rationale for potential integration. SpaceX absorbed Musk's AI company xAI in February this year and has been building out rocket launch, Starlink satellite internet, and AI computing infrastructure; Tesla focuses on autonomous driving, robotaxis, and humanoid robots, and the two sides are also jointly advancing the Terafab chip manufacturing project.

However, SpaceX's AI investments have also created massive financing needs. Reports indicate the company's second-quarter revenue was $7.8 billion, with a net loss of $541 million and AI capital expenditures reaching $15.8 billion. Morgan Stanley analysts expect SpaceX may need to issue approximately $80 billion in debt next year. Meanwhile, Starlink expansion and spectrum acquisitions will also increase capital investment.

This week's earnings reports will serve as a key window for the market to assess SpaceX's financing pressure, Starlink's profitability, and the feasibility of a potential integration between the two companies.